Baum

Yup. I think many of the Chicago folks are only interested in 10" or greater events these days. Perhaps they should remember December...

while we are focused here I see LOT has bumped up todays amounts a bit. Mentions 1-3". Love these events in cold air regimes ....

the euro's reputation is far overplayed. That said, it ain't over yet.

I would not be surprised to see the precip/snow wrap all the way back around the low center. To me, despite it's northerly track it still will have the ability to put some snow down fairly far south of the main storm on the arctic front. Seen this before. Quick 2-4" hit with strong winds,blowing snow, and rapidly falling temps. I'm certainly not a met., but do rely on my memory and history of prior events when I see certain set ups.

you could conceivably hit 30 or so in the warm sector and be back to 15 degrees within an hour after the low passes to your north and east with strong winds. It's a different type of clipper...but it's still a clipper.

If the forecast holds in a 3-7" range forecast given cold and wind it'll be a warning.

your not really on the fringe

Per NWS LOT if it snows at ORD today that's 10 straight days

See LOT going with the north solutions. Feels the Euro is an outlier...which it is at this point. Hoisted Watches for the far north counties of Illinois.

to be honest...the focus is so much on the future today's high of about 5 degrees with an inch of snow is like it didn't occurr.

I just chuckle. A system 48 hrs ago had a substantial shift within 18 hrs, and yet everyone still jumps on every model run as if it's the correct solution.

the GFS shows 5.2 at your place on today's 12Z. That's not a shut out.

storm threads are not just for your back yard.

melt down watch in effect.

Shows Cycloneville getting only 4". Toss.

Thinking an inch or so in the I-88 corridor? Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk

I no longer follow Tom much, but would find it hard to believe he isn't deep into what is going to be out there. He's too much of a weather geek. Perhaps he incorporates some old school gut meteorology into the equation as opposed to simple model worship.

got that already after that glaze of ice and than an inch or so of snow in these parts......

thought the same thing based on today's results. That's why I've always loved these clipper/northwest flow regimes..

done.

Think it makes sense to isolate this particular event away from the clipper train thread as it seems it has the potential to be somewhat more impactful. These type of events are some of my favorite as they are already moving into a bitterly cold arctic air mass and have the ability to pull both pacific and gulf moisture into the cold air mass creating a high ratio snow event and many times a fairly long duration snow event. Further, they posses the ability to provide wide areas of the forum a decent snowfall not as zone centric as some of this years previous storms. Last I recall of this type was the opening first few days of January 2014 that provided a similar storm followed by some brutally chilly air in the midwest....if memory serves me correct. We are still 4 days out so plenty can change but feel a thread highlighting this event is warranted.

Just going to say we may need a seperate thread for the Monday potential as it stands out from these other smaller events... Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk

No. Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk

@judah47: Is it too soon to begin chants of "Chiberia?" That is just a crazy week of weather predicted for #Chicago next week. I think it is safe to say #WinterIsComing to Chicago. https://twitter.com/judah47/status/1088511705510961152/photo/1 Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk