MorristownWx

Flurries in Morristown. A very wintery year, even if we didn’t get a lot of snow. I think it’s snowed on 12 or 13 times this year and ground has been covered with snow/ice for most of the winter — still have about 2” of ice pack I’d love to get rid of lol

I laughed so hard when I saw MJO post the GFS at 228. at this point unless there is a major storm, I’d love for the 2-3” of solid ice to melt over getting a couple more nickel and dime events which I usually like for the wintery feel and the easy clean up.

Why are you doing this to yourself? admittedly, I checked in on the thread for entertainment purposes but this has been dead now for over 36 hours as a storm. We can still see snow showers or flurries, but the storm idea for us is gone.

He said it an a weird way so I get where you’re coming from but his point is valid. Models are tools, simple as that. They help meteorologists make forecasts. It is still incumbent on the forecasters to account for model biases, weigh the chances based on time from event, and decide the best way to alert the public. as other have stated, there was ONE suite where all models showed a storm at the same time. One. Sure each model showed the storm at one point, but they were clearly picking up on a wrong piece of energy or variable that impacted the output. For us to know since Saturday evening or Sunday morning that there wasn’t going to be a storm on Wednesday or Thursday for us, 4-5 days out, is pretty solid.

I’d be thrilled if this was the case but looks like we have at least another week of cold temps

we had about 24 hours where it looked like we had model consensus to have a major storm and that was D5 and D6. at no point were we in any range to say that a HECS was in play. You can start discussing that possibility 48 hours out, Not in the 4-6 day fantasy range. It is what it is.

All how you look at it. 1-3 maybe even 2-4 still possible for nyc and east with higher amount as you head east. Best case scenario

Calling it noise in relation to all other guidance. As you said, it’s not a top-tier model and has been super erratic so without support from any other model, it’s noise as it relates to the bigger picture. we have about as good of model consensus as we could ask for 4 days out all things considering

Not major shifts at all. Mostly noise from icon. NAM is at 84. The consensus, at least for right now is pretty clear. Let’s not discount how good the model agreement is 4 days out. GFS will be another miss. ICON has been most erratic of all models. Again, we have pretty strong agreement on the models.

Sitting at 32, was really hoping today would have melted all the ice jams or at least last nights snow. May not do either.

If there is one bright side and this may be a stretch, most models started losing this yesterday, roughly four days before the storm so at least it wasn’t giving the allusion for days. As someone else commented, it was a couple of suites with big storms and I believe one 00z suites where almost every model jumped on board before they started losing the storm at different points.

We may not like the consensus, but we’re getting closer to it. There are obviously greater tragedies, but disappointing nonetheless. Enjoy your sundays!

Oh, I forgot to say. 2.27” may change slightly.

They stole it? Did you file a report?

Sure is, I always said that these boards should be mandatory reading for psychology majors and 1st years lol. My thoughts on NYC and points east being better suited in this set up remains and most (all?) models reflect that to varying degrees. I have my reservations sitting 30 miles west, but that could also be my slight conservative bias when forecasting for my area. as others have said, it’s about 4 days out from a potential storm and all the players there. How and when should start being ironed out over the next 36 hours or so.

Got locked out of my account because I forgot my password and wasn’t getting an email to reset. Decided to get a more accurate name to reflect location. Maybe the name change will bring us some luck formerly BoulderWx