GramaxRefugee

34 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

There’s no “holy shit” emoji so I had to do a Like.

And I guess there's no "who are you and what have you done with the real Chuck?" emoji either.

0.23" in the gauge

BWI: 8.3"

DCA: 5.9"

IAD: 13.0"

RIC: 3.1"

Tiebreaker SBY: 5.0"

14 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

So you’re saying seasonal forecasting is imperfect?

Eh, not something to be taken too seriously (IMO). But, now that you bring it up...
...CWG made a reference to the Doug Kammerer 1" outlook last year, and I heard that he is bullish on this year, So, if that verifies, I for one, will be duly impressed.

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

CWG forecast is bullish for this winter. 

 Them last year:

2 hours ago, Ji said:

last one was 1989 lol?

Led to our coldest Dec on record, and a white Christmas. (At least that's what I wrote on an ornament I carved for my wife that year). Dang, we're old. 

15 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said:

You had me at ‘09-‘10 being the most common analog!
...

quote from the report:

Below are the analogs that scored at least 2 points are as follows:
✓ 1951-52 (3 points)
✓ 1958-59 (2 points)
✓ 1965-66 (3 points)
✓ 1972-73 (2 points)
✓ 1976-77 (3 points)
✓ 1986-87 (2 points)
✓ 2002-03 (2 points)
✓ 2006-07 (2 points)
✓ 2009-10 (5 points)
✓ 2018-19 (2 points)

--------------------------

The others aren't even in the same ballpark.  

I'm only half serious, and there is a disclaimer, and all that, but...I can't wait for @Jebman to see this.

(Thanks @Terpeast, for the nice work.)

52 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

The heat island around downtown DC is only bested in these parts by Manhattan.

True...See this post in the NYC Metro forum.  LGA average first freeze later than both RDU and Tallahassee FL.  Yes; NY freezes later than FL.

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/59595-october-2023/?do=findComment&comment=7036993

2 hours ago, arlwx12 said:

Not that odd.

The Richmond airport is about 5 miles away from downtown.

And it isn't on a major river.

DCA is on a major river, and near the center of a big urban heat island.

Just about all the local DC/MD/VA areas that stayed above freezing were "next" to the water.

Looking at the Chesterfield County Airport reported 22f this morning; and it's just across town from RIC. That's 22f while DCA was 34.

Low of 29

October total only 1.45". (Lot of unproductive dzl)

Highest temp 81, lowest 36

9 hours ago, RDM said:

Can see flakes out in Garrett Co. on several of the traffic cameras here...   https://deepcreektimes.com/other-area-webcams/garrett-county-state-highway-webcams/   

I'm 9 hours late, but each cam now shows a coating of snow. A few flakes still falling

32 this morning. First Freeze for us.

3 hours ago, nw baltimore wx said:

As an old Senators fan, I am sorry to hear of the passing of Frank Howard. I remember heading to the All-Star game at RFK in July, 1969, only to turn around when the game was postponed due to rain. The game was played the following day and Frank hit a dinger. 

I remember him contesting for most HRs on the season, but didn't manage to do it, IIRC.

Somewhere around here I still have a ball with his autograph.  RIP

54 minutes ago, mattie g said:

I'm flipping through DT's slides today and it's surprisingly well written and quite digestible for a complete novice like me. Really good stuff.

I noticed that too. Was wondering if he has teamed with an editor somehow.

37f and first frost

7 hours ago, Jebman said:

You guys are never gonna believe this. My car is 13 miles away. I had a flat. Mom brought me home. The car roof leaks bad. We are getting hit by that rain I said I wanted. The Norma moisture and the darn trough are coalescing. I wish I had been careful about what I wished for. I am frantically praying for the rain to miss us. What have I done?

Never thought I'd see these words on a Jeb post.  (It's not snow related, so I guess it's OK)

Don't worry. That Texas sun will dry out that car in due time. (Voice of experience here)

Been using an old bagger style mower to shred leaves/grass to insulate a fig tree for winter. This is about 6 or 7 bags so far.  Still a few weeks to go probably. 

Don't have much grass to mow here.

0.30" here. Might not be quite done.

5 minutes ago, WesternFringe said:

Had ice on the car for the first time this morning.

Looks like ya'll hit your first freeze :

1 hour ago, Steve25 said:

Saw this on Twitter. As much as this is supposed to be frustrating, all I can think about is that January of 2016 was the last time Baltimore experienced a significant snowfall. 

Drop the very horrible Dec 2015, and it's not as sensational. (admittedly, still bad.)

low 41

1 hour ago, Steve25 said:

Good information, one thing though. I'm almost certain this doesn't include 2022-23 in that span. It's the 7 years leading up to 2022-23, going from 2015-16 to 2021-22. Obviously, 2015-16 presented us with that huge storm in January which got our season total over 30 inches. 

Certain that the 7 year span from 2016-17 to 2022-23 is the worst 7 year stretch in this areas history. I mean, it's saying something that the 7 year period INCLUDING 2015-16 is still 4th on the list. 

If my math is correct, BWI is averaging 9.2 inches annually in the previous 7 years, from 2016-17 through 2022-23. As you can see by your list, 9.2 would be by far the lowest over a 7 year period, and it's not remotely close.

 

 

Yeah, I check a couple others, and am getting lower numbers. But say it's the 7 previous years, then 1977 is 12.85. If it's inclusive, then 1977 is 11.44.  Overall, I like the chart though.

Or maybe I'm missing something.

Edit: My calculation about 17-23 was wrong.   But the other items still appear to be erroneous

10 minutes ago, mattie g said:

How can you people remember who called what for a winter from 14 years ago?

Take Super-Weenie Pill Supplements .  Makes it so you can recall any snowfall measurement since childhood, but at the expense of forgetting things like your Mom's birthday.  Or maybe even your own.

(P.S.  I'll bet @Jebman was optimistic in 2009)

24 minutes ago, 09-10 analogy said:

Orioles were in the postseason then as well

At least, in those days, it was the World Series.

Remember our relief staff, with the beautiful and fluid motion of Tippy Martinez. Remember Don Stanhouse, nicknamed "full pack" , because they say Weaver smoked a full pack to calm his nerves whenever the guy was on the mound. Even so, he was our best reliever in number of saves.