GramaxRefugee

Finished the month with 3.57"

Highest 89f.........Lowest 50f 

Low of 49f

DCA: 11/10

IAD: 10/30

BWI: 11/09

RIC: 11/09

Tiebreaker: 1.08"

50 for my low...

DP was 49 but will have to check when I get home whether the temp ever broke into the 40s. (Not a big deal for many of you to be in the 40s, but my location is slow to cool down in Fall.)

2 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

So...how many consecutive years before we talk about this being a mainstay? 

The "D" stands for Decadal. ...(for the simple answer.)

This isn't bad:      https://www.daculaweather.com/4_pdo_index.php

1 hour ago, frd said:

Something has broken the horrible 4 year streak, may portend to be a positive moving deeper into the fall for the lower lattitudes.  Still a Nina, but might be atypical in outcomes. 

 

 

 

They seem to be forecast to do it again tonight, for a total of 4, should it verify.

1 hour ago, frd said:

  Hard to get excited about any meaningful winter weather since the super El Nino reset.  Even blocking doesn't work anymore.  Less cold air to work with and less baroclinic boundaries .

Do you mean the 1998 El Nino? Some of our snowiest winters have been since then. Also our coldest February on record. (2015)  Snowiest winter on record too (2009-10).  

8 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

So let's look at how those winters turned out for snow overall, and how those Januarys' looked for snow:        

2018-19: 18.3" Jan: 7.9"     Jan avg temp 33.5  (-0.8)

2003-04: 18.3"  Jan: 8.4"    Jan avg temp 27.6    (-6.7)    

2001-02: 2.3"  Jan: T           Jan avg temp 39.1     (+4.8)      

2000-01: 8.7"  Jan: 3.7"          Jan avg temp 33.1     (-0.2)  

1998-99: 15.2" Jan: 4.0"         Jan avg temp 35.1    (+0.8)    

1997-98: 3.2"   Jan: 0.7"        Jan avg temp 40.9     (+6.6)   

1987-88: 20.4" Jan: 13.7"      Jan avg temp 28.7      (-5.6)   

1968-69: 18.6"  Jan: 0.1"         Jan avg temp 31.7    (-2.6)   

1960-61: 46.5" Jan: 14.3"       Jan avg temp 27.6  (-6.7)

So do SSWs have any correlation? I'd like to see a full list of winters that had them in January or February as well. But for the December ones it's kinda hard to tell...but no blockbusters others than 60-61 (that epic decade for snow, lol)

I tried to add the January temps to your post. Hard to get excited about that group with some equally large warm departures. Using BWI normal of 34.3. 

Not sure what to make of it otherwise.

edit: Looks like you have to click the expand button to see them all.

52/51

3 minutes ago, Bodhi Cove said:

All the piers in the area are under water.The only good thing about that is you can spot the deck boards that need new screws.

South River higher than it's been in a long time too. No road flooding though. (I cross at MD 450)

Only about 0.65" when I left the house, but raining steady since. (since midnight) Windy rain.

temp/DP...74/74 f

11 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I used the NOAA solar calculator to find it as best I could. If I am using the calculator correctly, the direct rays of the sun will cross the equator at lat O (obviously lol) and -136.93359 long. This is in the pacific about halfway between Hawaii and San Francisco, on the equator 

I'm afraid I'm not too impressed with this, but here you are. You're gonna need a bigger boat....

1 hour ago, Cobalt said:

DCA having the highest negative anomaly is pretty odd, especially when considering how lacking their cold mins were. 

Cobalt is right, especially looking at their lowest claimed temp as 25f.  But, looking at the monthly, only 10 days have positive departure on the avg temp.  Eh, the place is weird.

1 hour ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

1 year after a cold February/warm February

 

 

Seems like a weird parameter that I'm not familiar with, but just trying to stay positive... , So for the record....It looks like Feb 2021 was :
-0.8 BWI

-1.0 IAD

-2.2 DCA

Early acorn drop at my little oak forest. Got to wonder if this is related to the cicada invasion, because the trees have really suffered flagging, (as it seems to be called), of twigs and dead leaves everywhere. It was not this bad 17 years ago, but I don't recall what the acorn situation was then anyway. Was wondering if anyone else has noticed the acorns. According to the cicada thread, the flagging is bad for oaks region-wide. 

3 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

.... Also learned nothing of any real world value.  

...

Oh, I'm so surprised. 

Snowen, the fact that you make this statement shows you're already ahead of the game. Keep it up. And, IMO,  the artwork doesn't look so bad at all.

Low of 57

Missed almost everything yesterday and overnight, (a few sprinkles).  Now getting some gentle, steady rain for the morning.  

12 hours ago, Stormfly said:

Sept 1983 had some big heat.

83-84 winter was decent.  I'd take it again.  BUT!  there was some bitter cold too that I could do without.  Anyone remember the days with carbureted cars (and manual choke!) you'd have put "dry gas" or "heet" in the tank or risk dreaded gas line freeze, the Watusi jack rabbit start and surging that makes you look like you're just learning to drive stick!  That combined on hilly roads full of patchy ice certainly made things interesting.

Coldest Christmas Day on record in Balto. Zero for the min and 12f for the lomax. 

Reloaded a month later and IAD recorded lowest temp ever at -18f on 1/22/84 .   I believe we had -12f in HoCo, but I'm going by memory, I've lost the written record from those days (I think).

ETA:  OK, now that you've made me dust off the record book (Balto)....I see that hot Sept 1983 set 5 record high max days: the 6, 10, 11, 19, and 20th.  The 11th was hottest at 100f. No other year set so many record temps in the month. 

14 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Almost 2 

(We tease because we love)

IAD was 0.7, which is half of 1.4, so there's that I suppose. And those are the only ones I have readily available. But it just reinforces our idea that BWI is slightly broken, as I think most of us have noticed.

1 hour ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

I just accept that met summer is now Jun 1 - Sept 30. I think BWI’s new 1991-2020 normal is almost two degrees warmer than 1981-2010 for September.

1.4

.07" overnight.

If you look at a chart of Atlantic ACE Index, (below hopefully), some of the best winters had low ACE. But I think RaindanceWX is looking at La Nina years only. Which, as we all know, are usually pretty woeful winters for snow lovers, with some exceptions. Looks like the snowy winters of 2013, 2014, 2015 all had low ACE

ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy) is a measure of tropical cyclone energy, but I'm probably not the best guy to elaborate except to say this...

The way I look at it, things like the number of major hurricanes, or number of named storms, etc. are all subjective, since they'll name a thunderstorm these days. But the total accumulated energy is more absolute, so might be a good measure of how active the hurricane season is.

On 9/5/2021 at 8:41 PM, raindancewx said:

It doesn't work reliably in Baltimore/DC and south, but in La Nina years, ACE over 150 is almost a pre-requisite Summer trait for the big NE snowy winters. Pretty sure there are no La Ninas more than +20% or +30% for NYC/Philly snow totals since 1930 when ACE is not at least 150. I know you guys don't live up there, but if you hit 150 ACE in the Summer, you at least have a shot at a lot of Nor'easters with blocking.

The big ACE La Nina years since 1931-32 are these, in order of highest ACE:

1933, 2005, 1995, 2017, 1950, 1998, 2020, 1999, 2010, 1955, 1964.

If you use Baltimore, the 11-year average snowfall is (44.6+19.6+62.5+15.4+6.2+15.2+10.9+26.1+14.4+18.1+18.6)/11 --> 22.9, and essentially a coin flip for near-normal to snowy conditions using the 1991-2020 snow average.

1933-34, 2005-06, 1995-96, 1999-00, 1955-56, 1964-65 are all near average to snowy using the most recent 30 years. 2020-21 and 2010-11 would probably be snowy patterns too with less bad luck.

 

I guess we talking Atlantic ACE? This chart seems to say we're running ahead of normal for 2021, (as did 2020) That right?

I looked at the snow avg calculation and re-did without the highest and lowest (because I feel 1995 is just too anomalous), and still got 20.3" which didn't seem so bad. 

1 hour ago, Stormfly said:

Like the winter of '77 when people were driving their cars on the ice @the inner harbor!  YIKE!

Cold but no snow.  YUCK!

Earth's gravity was weaker in those days, so cars weighed less.  Actually, I was driving a '68 VW Beetle that winter, (weight < 1800#) so maybe there's some truth there. 
I do recall looking at certain wheel tracks on the ice of the WSSC reservoir at the Rte 29 bridge. But I did not drive my car on the ice. I think it was a Chevy Vega. (Don't ask how I know.) 
Kids today don't know the fun they're missing.