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GramaxRefugee

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    October Banter 2021

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    2 hours ago, MacChump said:

    you can't make it to an online class at 8am??

    14 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

    Seriously

    Ooof, No Mercy from this crowd, eh?

    Rhino, the next time you look at the AFD, check the time it was issued. Well, here's one: 

    Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
349 AM EDT Tue Oct 19 2021

    Weathermen are expected to live on a higher plane than the average student. ;) 

    (Remember, we tease because we love)

     

    Winter 2021-22

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    33 minutes ago, RIC_WX said:

    It snowed on thanksgiving.  89-90 maybe the most front loaded winter of the past 50 years. 

    I can't entirely imagine a 2021 version of this to be nearly as interesting.

    Checking the front loaded 1989 at locations that just had the ultra-cold Feb 2021....Tyler, TX (e.g.) hit 97f on 10-3-89 but finished October as normal. Went on to record a very cold Christmas with lows of 9, 0, 1, & 14; from 12-22 to 12-25. Daily departure of -39 on 12-23. Monthly departure of -9.5.  Very cold for east TX.
    I'm starting to think these guys selling the December-to-remember are looking better and better.

    Winter 2021-22

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    Today's LWX AFD is mentioning these record numbers for Friday:
    DCA - 87 in 1975
    BWI - 86 in 1989
    IAD - 88 in 1989
    I think we don't get anywhere close to these, but wanted to note that October 1989 led to the coldest December ever recorded. Departure of -14.6 at IAD; -13.2 at BWI. Second coldest in Balto was in 1876, (departure -11.3). 12 of the December record min temps at IAD were set in 1989. 

    • Like 1

    October Discobs 2021

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    I see there are a lot of October rain-complainers around. But, I was noticing last night, when I emptied the 0.02" total from the gauge, that I've had almost no rain this month. Not worried though. (yet)

    Low of 63f this morning, and overcast.

    Nov/Dec 2021 Med/Long Range

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    14 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

    I saw a chart earlier today on Twitter, but can’t find it now on my phone, showing that most of the Top 10 warmest October’s in the CONUS were during Ninas.

    These 3 stick out, if it helps any. (Meaning, I don't know how big of a nina each year was. Someone may know.)
    2007...63.6f
    1984...61.8f
    1971...61.4f

    avg of 56.6f
    all at IAD

    The 1971 led to a warm Dec+Jan, but cold snowy Feb.

    1985 led to a record cold spell in Jan

    2007 led to pathetic, don't ask.

    Winter 2021-22

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    21 hours ago, Mr. Kevin said:

    So do you expect the wpo overall to be more negative this winter compared to last winter? Like you mentioned, it was negative in October and then it flipped to positive for rest of winter. If we are going to have a -pdo, we dont want a pronounced laniña of any kind this winter. Correct? In my area, other than about a week to 10 days in February, it really wasn't cold. I think the -nao we had was too much east based

    If your listed location is still Arkansas....You have a rather bland way of referring to the 4th coldest February on record, coldest since 1978, monthly departure -10f +/- depending on exact station.
    Not complaining, (especially with all the hype that runs around these days). But, should be considered for the sake of our analysis.

    https://www.weather.gov/lzk/clmfeb2021b.htm

    Winter 2021-22

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    1 hour ago, frd said:

    Something has broken the horrible 4 year streak, may portend to be a positive moving deeper into the fall for the lower lattitudes.  Still a Nina, but might be atypical in outcomes. 

     

    FAYittTUYAAS4Tk.thumb.png.8759cc7fa092f4a0970c6fb1acd3aab0.png

     

     

    They seem to be forecast to do it again tonight, for a total of 4, should it verify.

     

    Winter 2021-22

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    1 hour ago, frd said:

      Hard to get excited about any meaningful winter weather since the super El Nino reset.  Even blocking doesn't work anymore.  Less cold air to work with and less baroclinic boundaries .

    Do you mean the 1998 El Nino? Some of our snowiest winters have been since then. Also our coldest February on record. (2015)  Snowiest winter on record too (2009-10).  

    Winter 2021-22

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    8 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

    So let's look at how those winters turned out for snow overall, and how those Januarys' looked for snow:        

    2018-19: 18.3" Jan: 7.9"     Jan avg temp 33.5  (-0.8)

    2003-04: 18.3"  Jan: 8.4"    Jan avg temp 27.6    (-6.7)    

    2001-02: 2.3"  Jan: T           Jan avg temp 39.1     (+4.8)      

    2000-01: 8.7"  Jan: 3.7"          Jan avg temp 33.1     (-0.2)  

    1998-99: 15.2" Jan: 4.0"         Jan avg temp 35.1    (+0.8)    

    1997-98: 3.2"   Jan: 0.7"        Jan avg temp 40.9     (+6.6)   

    1987-88: 20.4" Jan: 13.7"      Jan avg temp 28.7      (-5.6)   

    1968-69: 18.6"  Jan: 0.1"         Jan avg temp 31.7    (-2.6)   

    1960-61: 46.5" Jan: 14.3"       Jan avg temp 27.6  (-6.7)

    So do SSWs have any correlation? I'd like to see a full list of winters that had them in January or February as well. But for the December ones it's kinda hard to tell...but no blockbusters others than 60-61 (that epic decade for snow, lol)

    I tried to add the January temps to your post. Hard to get excited about that group with some equally large warm departures. Using BWI normal of 34.3. 

    Not sure what to make of it otherwise.

    edit: Looks like you have to click the expand button to see them all.

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