anthonymm
-
Posts
363 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by anthonymm
-
the big ku's almost always feature +pna.
-
I'll take a little excess hunga tonga water vapor if theres a huge ridge over the rockies and greenland and a 980 mb L tracking up the benchmark. Of course stuff like this doesn't happen nowadays
-
-PNA sucks.
-
100% this is not a snow look. We get snow only when the rockies torch under a huge ridge. Which is extremely unlikely now that we're in a nina. I see a BN winter ahead, at least south of Boston.
-
19" for central park would feel insanely snowy nowadays. Haven't gotten close to normal in 5 years.
-
Drop the PV over the hudson bay all winter long, ala 2013-2014.
-
Is NYC the NE to you or the mid atlantic ?
-
We cant really get above normal with one. That would take a january 2016 type event which happens like once every 20 years.
-
Yup I really dont see how the math works out to getting even close to our normals (25-30" give or take from philly to nyc) unless we get several big coastal lows tracking along the benchmark. Seems really hard to pull off. Who knows maybe bluewave is right and our new normals are around 15" per season.
-
I've said this a few times. The northern mid atlantic from philly to the nyc metro is the screw zone now. Too north for the suppressed tracks, too south for the swfe. We have only one way of getting snow basically (KU nor'easters), and that's the reason we've been consistently getting the lowest percent of our snow normals the last few years compared to the other I95 cities.
-
Yea give me one cold smoke 8 inch storm like jan 22 and a smattering of 2-4" events. Would feel prolifically wintery nowadays.
-
Yup, forgot who pointed that out (Don?), but the 4" stat in central park has like a 95+ % success rate.
-
23" in nyc would feel incredibly snowy in comparison to recent years. That is more than the last three years combined, yet 6" less than the 30 year average (lol). Hell of a snow drought.
-
That like never happens. If the December is snowy in nyc and it's a nina, then the rest of the winter will be snowy too. It seems extraordinarily far fetched that we get a good December followed by a crap rest of the winter. More likely we just get a crap December and of course crap rest of the season.
-
Yea the "fast start to winter, then it dies in January" pretty clearly contradicts the data we have about snowy nina decembers for nyc translating to above normal for the rest of the season.. Surprised no one has pointed that out.
-
Hah DC would be lucky to get more than 3" with the type of pattern that will unfold.
-
The complete and utter lack of any semblance of snow as far north as northern Quebec is disturbing indeed. Should be the kiss of death for us.
-
It’s a prelude. When I saw it became a cutter last minute it was like a kiss of death showing our future storm tracks this winter.
-
snowfall for nyc metro ?
-
Absolutely anemic looking snow growth in Canada, especially eastern Canada. Not what you want to see right now.
-
Not so fast: https://www.columbia.edu/~lmp/paps/chiodo%2Betal-NATUREGEO-2019.pdf?utm_source
-
are we still forecasted to have an above normal october?
-
Big winter for north of immediate SW CT coast. Below that latitude SE ridge and +AO are killers. Wouldn't be surprised if Boston and co catch 50" and no one in nyc and south see at most 10".
-
If the banding set up over them it would have upped the seasonal total at the park to about 18", a bit below their long term seasonal average of about 25". Certainly not "well below".
-
lol sometimes you take things too far. Is it not lucky that central NJ got an intense lake effect like band in February of 24 that dumped over a foot overnight with no models suggesting anything close to these amounts? This one event combined with the other lighter storms brought them up to their 91-20 seasonal average for that winter. It could have easily impacted central park instead and brought them up to average.
