anthonymm
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Everything posted by anthonymm
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Because that's too far out. Underestimate the SE ridge at your own peril.
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Not to be a weenie but what makes you think it’s “very unlikely” the pna flips positive for a period in december?
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The winter is actively showing it's hand with that torch being forecasted first week of December. As many have posted about here, if you're on the east coast, warm Decembers in a nina are about the worst signal possible.
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I dont expect a big winter for the I95 south of Boston yea. Likely <20” , <10” also cant be ruled out. Btw euro kinda backed off the phase 8 idea already. Dec looks mild with the bulk of the cold falling into the plains and rockies.
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I think with terrible models have been, no one should get excited in terms of snow until there is model consensus for snow in their backyard within the 2-3 day window.
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Last Feb there was a storm that looked like a KU for the I95 5 days out, then it got suppressed to coastal virginia/NC lol. You're dead on with the "cutter or suppressed" track stuff, even though people here give you shit for it. It never works for philly to nyc anymore.
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Yep no evidence that this pattern since about feb 2022 will let up any time soon.
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There is a reason Judah is a well respected meteorologist. He doesn't jump on cold because he knows it's hard for us now. If you bet against sustained cold in winters in the mid atlantic/NE nowadays you'll be right 9 times out of 10.
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-PNA is the default in niñas. I think we all agree here this winter will be predominantly a -PNA one.
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no way mjo goes into phase 8. We're in a down cycle. We're paying for the previous snowy 20 year period.
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Early Dec looks warm. One brief cold shot to close Thanksgiving and we get a raging -pna and SER after.
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warm wet and cold dry is an unbeatable pattern
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Yea my reference is the last 3 winters which were 2.5", 7"ish, and 13" ish. Naturally I'm skeptical when people say this area is gonna have 20"+. Though I've seen the numbers from the past and I realize I just got here during a profoundly unwintery stretch.
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Sorry lived in FL before 2022. Thus I have not seen first hand evidence that this place can be snowy.
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Early Dec looks bad for the coast, no +PNA in sight so things will cut. Remains to see what mid-late will bring.
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I said what I said. Have you not looked at snow totals in the city for the last 4 years? Any snow at all is pretty much a treat, now that we cant guarantee any given winter wont turn into 2022-2023.
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Any snow at all at any time of the year is gravy pretty much for central park/I95ers south of new england now.
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So cape may is somehow immune to the pac jet? Interesting.
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Great point. I think it would be hard to argue cape may has a better climo for snow than central park. Yet they got multiple 4" events last winter. Central park is has just been very very unlucky recently.
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pretty sure LGA got a 4" event last winter.
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11 inches of precip versus 9 is really not that much. I don't really think you can chalk up the lack of snow in the late 20s early 30s to dryness. It was likely just shit luck with the storm tracks being west of the region. Of course one can argue with climate change it's more likely we get these warmer storm tracks.
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Wow didn't realize the late 20s early 30s sucked that badly for snow in nyc. I wonder if at that time there were doomers like bluewave saying the mean may permanently change to 15" per year lol.
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Care to explain the reasoning why the pattern post 2019 has been to utterly hostile to cold and snow in the northeast specifically ? Other regions aren't experiencing this.
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Incredible how reliable that December snowfall statistic is in the park.
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Yup PNA is king south of New England. NYC's not reaching 4" for December if that western trough hangs out for the entirety of the month. That pretty much guarantees a BN winter for us. Forgot who said it but 19" is likely a (generous) upper bound for our snow totals this winter.
