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WintryMixmaster

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Everything posted by WintryMixmaster

  1. WintryMixmaster
    Yeah NWS Morristown doesn't sound confident either, just a brief mention of freezing drizzle/flurries behind the front in their forecast discussion. I just want something to measure haha, I give it a 30% chance in my backyard on getting anything more than flurries. Maybe higher towards Blount/Sevier counties
  2. WintryMixmaster
    No snow accumulation from this storm in my backyard, a light dusting of sleet, a thin (0.1" or so) coating of ice on elevated surfaces, and now a nice cold rain. If we weren't going to get snow, I'm thankful Knoxville at least dodged any crippling ice. The fact that surface temps verified a couple degrees warm really saved us from having ice on the roads. A few models look like they have some backend snow for the foothills tonight... not much, but better than more ice or rain. Nam 3k, HRW WRF-ARW, RDPS all have a dusting to an inch or so in the central and northern parts of the valley. Would be a nice consolation prize to get on the board for snow accumulations on the winter and have some white on the ground heading into this freezing cold week
  3. WintryMixmaster
    The good old days of Monday-Tuesday haha. I remember looking at that and thinking "wow that's a sharp gradient just south of TN, we could get nothing if this tracks just a bit north" and then...
  4. WintryMixmaster
    Moderate sleet coming down now. I'm pretty sure everyone north, east, west, and even southwest of me as reported at least a little snow, but I'm apparently in some kind of warm bubble. Down to 31.5 degrees
  5. WintryMixmaster
    What part of west Knoxville are you in? I'm near Northshore town center-ish
  6. WintryMixmaster
    Light sleet shower now with that heavier echo SW of downtown Knoxville
  7. WintryMixmaster
    Flurries have started here, up to 33.1 degrees
  8. WintryMixmaster
    32.5 degrees, 45% humidity and cloudy here. Definitely verifying a bit warmer than expected
  9. WintryMixmaster
    Did they recently update? I saw they gave us a WWA though, down from Ice Storm warning. Hopefully that means less ice than expected. I feel like yesterday the short range models had us almost immediately going over to sleet, now it looks like our area will get at least some light snow tomorrow afternoon. Maybe get on the board for the season on accumulations
  10. WintryMixmaster
    Some major differences there... I imagine there's a fine line between sleet vs freezing rain at 31 degrees vs plain rain at 32 degrees. A couple degrees in the mid-lower levels of the atmosphere could make this a lot better or a lot worse for a lot of people
  11. WintryMixmaster
    On a related note, it also sucks to be without water. My pipes froze during last winter's MLK day weekend cold snap because I mistakenly assumed my house was better insulated than it was... luckily no damage when they thawed, but it definitely reminded me how easy it is to take for granted something as simple as being able to go to the bathroom or wash your hands by turning a knob. Definitely going to drip the taps this week!
  12. WintryMixmaster
    Oh yeah I don't buy it for a second lol but the Euro did have a similar setup, just looked like maybe a little too much separation to pull off the phase (wouldn't that be a slap in the face after this weekend's storm?). I think the 00z Euro last night had it too
  13. WintryMixmaster
    GFS: "Sorry I got your hopes up this weekend" Also the GFS: "HEY LOOK OVER HERE!"
  14. WintryMixmaster
    HRW WRF-ARW look to have light snow over Knox County from hours 41-44, but only registers as 0.1 inch on pivotal's 10:1 total snowfall map. I guess maybe that's sleet being interpreted as snow?
  15. WintryMixmaster
    Obviously a different setup, but if I remember correctly, the January 2025 storm forecast was pretty much set in stone and the phase ended up being a bit sloppy/late, giving the southern valley/N GA/N AL a surprise snow (and leading to a small bust for the northern valley). So I guess it isn't impossible that with so many pieces of energy coming together, this could surprise us despite the models seemingly converging on the amped solution. I feel like my ideal scenario would be the first wave coming in weaker and a few counties south giving us a nice front end snow/sleet, and the second wave coming in as temperatures go above freezing and giving us plain rain with no ZR in between.
  16. WintryMixmaster
    Having the subtropical jet throwing moisture straight at a 1045 HP in southern Wisconsin and ending up with 0 inches of snow in the valley is like the weather equivalent of throwing a pick six on 1st and goal from the 1... we're just sitting there watching the warm nose run it back for a touchdown. The HP actually retreating northwest between hours 60 and 66 is a nice touch, like the QB chasing down the warm nose and giving up, lol
  17. WintryMixmaster
    I really want to know what they were thinking with that snow map... I don't like to question people smarter than me, and the meteorologists there have forgotten more about weather than I'll ever know, but like, did someone fall into a coma 24 hours ago, wake up, and then hit "send" on that map without checking any recent models?
  18. WintryMixmaster
    Gotta love single digit temps with a bare ground after a nice cold rain. On the plus side, the rug pull by the models happening over the course of a single model suite was better than watching it slowly slip away. And there's still plenty of winter to go
  19. WintryMixmaster
    Well the GFS has consistently been the coldest model, and took this big jump north with the recon data, maybe that means this is the worst case scenario and the other models will have a quicker changeover to rain. CMC on the amped side of things has us at ZR for only about half as long which would make a big difference. I'm trying to sniff some hopium, I've given up on more than a light front end snow at best, just don't want to lose power before the deep freeze at this point
  20. WintryMixmaster
    I'd think that with the moderate/heavy rates shown and during the daylight hours, the rain wouldn't freeze on contact. Hopefully anyways
  21. WintryMixmaster
    Dusting of snow then sleet then ZR then rain... honestly if we're gonna get that much ice, I'll happily take the rain to help take the pressure off the power lines before the impending cold
  22. WintryMixmaster
    For how conservative they usually are, this seems... extreme. Especially given that the GFS ticked north again and has Knoxville mostly ice. Is there a single model showing 4"+ for Knoxville at this point, let alone 7"?
  23. WintryMixmaster
    I guess that's better than creeping even further north, for now. At this point I'm happy if the valley can get any accumulating snow and have it not all washed away by the rain mid-storm
  24. WintryMixmaster
    wtf was that Ukie run...
  25. WintryMixmaster
    It seemed like the 500mb maps looked pretty different but only a minor tick north/towards more moisture from 18z
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