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WintryMixmaster

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Everything posted by WintryMixmaster

  1. WintryMixmaster
    So in other words, this is a bad trend on the ICON?
  2. WintryMixmaster
    My NAM rule is usually, "if it shows a lot of warmth or a warm nose, it's right. If it shows an unusual amount of snow or snow that no other model shows, it's wrong"
  3. WintryMixmaster
    Yeah that's not what we wanted to see... does the long range NAM still have a bias towards over-amping things? Because it already has sleet from Knoxville southwest at 84 hours
  4. WintryMixmaster
    Run from it, hide from it... Lakes low still arrives
  5. WintryMixmaster
    What model suite will have the first of the recon data incorporated? Like one of the comments on the last page mentioned, it's interesting (in a bad way) like someone said that the cone of uncertainty for the heavy snow axis/amounts/snow-ice line seemed to be narrowing, and the Euro/Euro AI were very consistent over several suites, and then they suddenly made this kind of a jump. What did they see that was different?
  6. WintryMixmaster
    Would really suck after all winter having such a northern stream dominated pattern that when we finally get the subtropical jet to cooperate, it causes our storm to phase and cut like that
  7. WintryMixmaster
    The 00z Ukie and even at 12z seems to have a more WSW-ENE orientation to the snow axis compared to the EURO/GFS which are more west to east. CMC though further north seems similar to the Ukie in terms of the orientation. Maybe related to the placement of the high pressure over Minnesota and how fast it presses southeast? Or something else about how the energy moves east from Baja? Edit: Might just be a trick of the state boundaries on my eyes on the map, lol
  8. WintryMixmaster
    It did look a little colder at all levels than 12z for a bit, but it looks like it sent a low west of the apps which turned us to rain and then back to sleet at the end. No big zone of freezing rain at least, unlike the CMC
  9. WintryMixmaster
    UKMET looks maybe a tick colder than 12z?
  10. WintryMixmaster
    Yeah, Canadian moves the storm out ahead of the high pressure which I guess lets it cut north, while the other models have the high pressure shadowing the storm to the north and walling if off?
  11. WintryMixmaster
    Yeah definitely not taking the ICON of all models at this range as verbatim, but I feel like usually when a global model has the line in the southern valley, the higher res models start creeping that north county by county once they get into range. Granted I haven't lived here as long as most posters here so they probably know the microclimates best. I actually felt better about the suppression solution lol
  12. WintryMixmaster
    Especially if it's snow to mix to snow, which Knox County would be if we shifted the ICON like 30 more miles north. My back already hurts imagining shoveling that
  13. WintryMixmaster
    I feel like every big storm that's hit since I got here has had some kind of screw axis. Maryville/the foothills got screwed in January 2024. Chattanooga got screwed in March 2022. Knoxville north got screwed (a little, relative to forecast) by the January 2025 storm while Chattanooga cashed in. Now that I lived here long enough I can see why its so hard to have the whole valley from Bristol down to Chattanooga score from the same storm. I'd take rain over ice though if that warm nose is going to creep up the valley
  14. WintryMixmaster
    Even in Knoxville, I don't like how close we are to that snow/ice line. A 50-100 mile jog north would put us in a world of pain, and a north trend with this kind of system seems like something that could easily happen. This reminds me of that arcade game where you have to steer the marble down the sidewinder-shaped course to the goal, except each model suite between now and Saturday is a new turn north or south and the goal is a snowstorm for the whole valley. Suppression! Cutter! More suppression! Notably, I could never win that game...
  15. WintryMixmaster
    ICON at the end of its range was more suppressed than 12z too
  16. WintryMixmaster
    I'm setting an expectation of rain with minor snow accumulation and considering anything else a bonus so I don't get my hopes up. Mentally shifting everything 100-200 miles north when I see snowfall maps haha
  17. WintryMixmaster
    So is the difference between the UKIE/Euro AI and GFS/CMC/ICON a timing issue? If the storm takes too long to get here, it amplifies and gives time for the eastern HP to move out, letting it attack the weakness in the banana high?
  18. WintryMixmaster
    Two 1030+ highs to the north of us and it just cuts right between them... seems strange that it's so much more amplified than previous runs, and the only model showing that, but somehow a cutter wouldn't surprise me
  19. WintryMixmaster
    I kind of feel the same way but that's probably due to cynicism more than any real intuition about the pattern, just being used to stronger storms always trending north. We haven't had an ice storm in my 4 winters in Knoxville (minus a minor ZR event in Jan 2024) and it would be nice to keep it that way
  20. WintryMixmaster
    I remember growing up in New Jersey that the "cold/dry alternating with just warm enough to rain/wet" pattern was the absolute worst, but I'm surprised how often its happened here this winter (and a bit of last winter too). 40-50 degree rain isn't unexpected but the fact that we've had a lot of cold weather - just not synced up with storms - is really frustrating
  21. WintryMixmaster
    I really thought the models were going to bust high on temperatures today given how the low last night was colder than expected, but the southwest wind really brought in the warm air and Knoxville is actually warmer than the models said it would be. Funny how the NAM is always right when it comes to any kind of warm nose but if it's the cold outlier, it's gonna be wrong
  22. WintryMixmaster
    Satellite shows clearing skies to our west unfortunately, hopefully we can hold in as much cold air as we can ahead of the southwest winds. The temperature has been steadily climbing at my house, up to 28.6 degrees now
  23. WintryMixmaster
    I noticed that too. It's 20 degrees at my house and even colder in some other areas nearby, the colder models for Friday night are much closer to the current observed temperatures in the area (NAM, WRF-NSSL, WRF,ARW) compared to the rainier ones (WRF-FV3, RRFS, HRRR), which have Knoxville above 24 degrees at 10-11 PM. I might be grasping at straws but like I said, I'll take any and all false or real hope I can find haha
  24. WintryMixmaster
    It looks like the WRF-NSSL has a similar solution to the NAM, WRF-ARW missed Knox but gets some light accumulating snow into NE TN. And then the WRF-FV3 says nope, rain for basically everyone. It would take some of the string out of having snow likely miss to our south Sunday if some part of our area can get accumulating snow on Friday night, at least maybe the Plateau or northeast valley
  25. WintryMixmaster
    The NAM 3k sure is persistent showing that 1-2" for I-40 north in the valley Friday night. Reminds me of that scene with Fry and the fortune teller from Futurama: "look do you want false hope or not?" "only if you don't have any real hope!"
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