Lava Rock

already 45F.

Jeff and I were talking about how sne will bookend this winter with another 18+" and surpass our seasonal totals

Maybe a sn shwr today, otherwise nothing for the next week. Send all the sn north at this point. With mild wx it's just nuisance.

Sucks, wish we could have cashed in on something other than rn out of that storm.

3 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Full on lake effect blizzard in Vermont.

3,000ft at 10:45am was checking in with 26" storm total stack (not multiple measurements, a 26" stack).

Here's 1,500ft at the office.

congrats, you finally scored a big one

Took a ride over to Littleton from Bethel today. The Whites are gorgeous. So envious of the views some people have. Did a quick hike towards Madison Hut but ran out of time and had to turn back. Perfect winter day.

It could also end very , very quickly up there. 2012 ended in record time 

2 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said:

I like winter, especially this one. With all the bickering and whining, seems like most everyone else doesn't like winter. Not sure why people spend days weeks months looking forward to it, hyping it even,  just to cry about it for three months when it occurs

I don't even know where to begin

2 hours ago, Dr. Dews said:

40F and dry > 30F and dry, all day. More of this please...every winter

If you hate winter so much, why participate in these threads?

Skied Sunday River yesterday. Mob scene there. Sunny skies made it nice, but a lot of trails were boilerplate with large swaths of ice. Some recent snowmaking efforts got scraped off fast. None of the woods trails are even open. We need snow bad.

Holy crap.  I have not been on the boards or looking at models much lately but just did.  What an active pattern coming up starting late this week.  So many precipitation types and storms.  Winter is going to make a comeback throwing all kinds of stuff at us.

 

Have fun riding this weekend. You won't be disappointed

Lots of melt last couple days. Looks like late March.

1 hour ago, dryslot said:

In winters past, When i would be riding this area, The snow would be up to the bottom of the sign, Not this year so far, There was more snow up here this weekend then down home, But that's still not normal for the Eustis area........

same in jackman. Locals were complaining about how thin it is. I met the owner of spruce meadow cabins. He won Cains Quest before. Pretty cool. He's got a 155" that he hasn't taken out yet. We went to the top of Coburn and some kids were up there. One with a 174". Said he was gonna ride it 200mi the next day. I kinda laughed.Said he had a renegade too, but opted for the long track. whatever.

what a boring stretch coming up. at what point do we write this winter off?

Doesn't seem like we've had much snow this season yet PWM (by 14") and CAR are above avg. BGR running avg.

1 hour ago, alex said:

It was interesting driving around today. First time I've ever seen Littleton have more snow than Bretton Woods! Looks like they stayed pretty cold down there, with a solid 3-4 cover everywhere and even snow on roofs! Goes away quickly as you rise in elevation in neighboring Bethlehem, where it's just patches (as all elevated areas). Microclimates are so fascinating. 

Hillside living sucks for snow retention, although I am surprised we didn't get wiped clean. Woods are still mostly intact with 3-4". Break out the box of tissues for the snow stake. 18"????

Wow....2.5” new from this streamer. 5.0” total and still snowing moderately

Pretty rare for the snow to be heavy enough that it reflects the IR light back to my cam like a ball of light. Usually that only happens with dense fog.

We downslope.

3 hours ago, tamarack said:

Maybe a bit more frequent for me.  For my area where winter is pretty consistent with regular snowfall, I'm defining "ratter" as Edit:  I think 75" would be close to long-term climo for your site, about 20% higher than PWM.

75" is approx climo. I should have been more clear when I said <75". I'll predict we get ~60". And while that is still just a bit under climo, it pales in comparison to the good years we've had. We've been spoiled overall.

I'm ramping up the bitch machine slowly as my patience is starting to wear thin. So we basically wipe most of the pack this wknd, then return to avg/above ave temps next week without any storm threats. So that's two straight wknds without getting on my sled. Skiing will be shot for this wknd. too. By the time we get the pack back and things are rideable again, it'll be almost Feb. Every year we lose at least 1 month between Dec-Mar with shit weather. Seems like this season we'll be pushing it beyond that. I'm sticking to mhy prediction this winter is a ratter. Check out my sig. Every 4 years we get a ratter.  I know there's hardly any data to make that conclusion, so I'll rely on my gut and say we finish this season with <75".

Well Iran has launched some missiles. We'll see where this goes...

29 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

I agree.  While the increased resolutions are great, I like looking back at the coarser models.  It does feel like there is far too much variability run to run these days.  This is where knowledge/experience as a forecaster trump models.

then why not fall back to the lower res modeling as it seems it has better accuracy for predicting where/how much an event will produce. Do we have too much data at our fingertips that it ends up hurting us?

52 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

There are a couple reasons why this isn't the case. One is that you have to find a way to manage convection. You either explicitly resolve it (convection-allowing) or parameterize it. Either way you are making assumptions that you are either parameterizing it correctly or correctly modeling its location and strength. Two is that as you improve your resolution you also sharpen gradients and increase the max/min values of features. This can dramatically affect the forecasts farther and farther out in time. You can imagine that an 80 km Euro on day 4 having broad QPF amounts would show a potential event for everyone, but a 13 km Euro 4 days out may show a sharp northern edge and convince NNE that they are going to get nothing. What if the model trends north then? It will look like a bust, whereas years ago it wouldn't have seemed that far off.

thanks. makes sense to the extent I can understand your explanation.