BristowWx

Nuclear fallout from the mushroom cloud which is a metaphor for our winter…or maybe just some dryer lint

How is this peak lol..not one model gives us snow Well…CMC has a little back end snow on the 23rd. But yes mostly void of blue. I know you are big game hunting. You may get squirrel. Which are oddly enough high in cholesterol.

All for essentially rain. Back in my day…

Code orange…the teachers have to work from home. The kids will sleep and eat chips

Is that good? I feel like I have no idea what looks good anymore. That looks like an off shore fish storm to me with a WAR to the NE

Only we could have what appears to be a frigid Christmas but still better than average chance of it being green…or brown. Bah!

You do on that run. I do not. It’s ok I feel good about it. At least it’s cold.

Euro and CMC have same look so that is comforting for the 23rd

they can under certain circumstances...like have a block send the primary south of where it normally would be and reforming off ORF but keeping the primary tugging it back west. it just rarely works out that way.

what does your gut tell you where this one is headed. just curious. mine tells me a strong primary low north of KY is bad but maybe in this type scenario it can work. I feel like we saw this recently like early last week/previous week or so when this Friday looked to be a more wintry event. it evolved obviously. isn't this the same really?

looking at comparative maps from Euro things have come a long way in 3 runs with mean sea level pressure. still 9 days out. EPS will be interesting

another 100miles for h5 to dig south-south west...and we would like it...this run spawns low around va capes...just too far east from what I can see

CMC digs a h5 little farther SE and turns out a little better at the surface. Now I see what has to happen for the 23rd to even have a prayer to be something beyond a snow squall...needs to dig to Southwest GA

Thats quite a jump in Southern Faquier with .58...that ISW criteria for certain.

Yes I am calling for a warm/cold/cold/warm January...week one will warm up...week 2 and 3 quite cold...then week 4 will be cold but warming up toward Feb. Either of us has an equal chance of being right he just gets paid a lot. I am a weenie who lives in the suburbs and watches the porch light for first flakes.

That was both depressing and informative at the same time. If we really need perfection moving forward this hobby will become futile. It was hard enough when things were better.

That’s probably not good . But we could do a lot worse than that look

Yes and then a very strong cold front. Very strong. It’s strong I just saw it on the GFS. Thumbs up!

^I think that op Euro run was a little jarring with people worried this is the first domino to fall or just a blip

Cold however. There will be nip in the air.

^GFS say happy bend over and take it up the tailpipe

thanks that makes sense. the term blocking is thrown around a lot...for the novice you hear blocking and think we are in business. the best example of blocking, in my head, would be a long duration overrunning event where we are on the right side of it and it spits out frozen for days....that would be fun. my point last night was we see some of these fantasy range systems cutting into 1040-1050 highs without much resistance...at least on the long range models. if we had true block with highs locked in over NE this would at least push back and lock the cold in longer.

Why does it appear on the extended models that each potential event or low pressure system seems to scoot along fairly quick? I thought, perhaps in error, that the blocking causes systems to slow down and amplify. The system at hour 252 on GFS, for example, just keeps on trucking through seemingly plowing through strong highs to the north.

If you think that is bad the next one is a heart breaker…wall of high pressure in Canada and we go to rain on Xmas eve

We can’t have it all. Cold Christmas…gotta like that.