bncho
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Everything posted by bncho
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Wow, thanks for all the compliments. You guys are wonderful!
- 67 replies
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- 10
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That looks similar to the January 6, 2025 storm, but that storm had a -NAO.
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GFS went from cutter to slider in one model run. Classic
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I'm in 9th, but thank you!
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A huge shoutout to @high risk for showcasing how the models really work. I really appreciated his posts about highlighting the importance of how this current base state is unpredictable, leading to volatile modeling, how outputs are calculated, and what data goes into the model to produce those outputs. It's been really informative and I hope he keeps doing such great work.
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SFC not that warm, though. Never really gets above 33 in DC.
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There's less positive tilt and the shortwave digs a little more. Not bad.
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RGEM isn't on an island, it's on a whole other planet.
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Apparently the 0z GFS has integrated new data. Here's what it is (found from SouthernWX) - Dropsonde data was assimilated from the recon missions in the Pacific.- The entire system is in a good spot currently (as of 00z) for good profiling by GOES-West satellite and Canadian soundings.
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but surface temps are kinda warm, yuck
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NAM better than 18z
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I would say that this idea that the models are worse than they are is largely stemmed from the fact that we've been in a more volatile Nina base state for the last 5+ years.
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Ah really? Why the discrepancy in snowfall totals? EPS on WxBELL has a mean of 4" going out to 360 hrs.
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There's an 18z EPS that goes out to 360? Lucky bastard.
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send maps, i don't see it anywhere
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just based off precip maps, it's like ~50 miles I think? give or take
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18z Euro shift NW
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GFS is more erratic than a drunk driver, RGEM is so warm that DC receives rain, Euro has been super SE for the last 24 model runs, and the AI models have been super consistent. And then there are a bunch of random models that should NOT be taken into account like the RRFS and the NAM at 84 hours and the ABCDEFG model. These models are so annoying, can't make up their minds lol
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Yeah, RRFS crushes DC SE
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Best Chuck Quotes: "-PNA" "South-based +NAO"
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@SnowenOutThere will commence his ultimate plan if you don't stop this...
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I agree. This is ridiculous. Y'all use the word goon and looksmaxxing like y'all discovered fire or something...
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NAM looking decent
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My eyes lit up when I saw I was pinged by @SnowenOutThere, and it lit up even more when I saw what he sent.
