bncho

you live in warmnister, pa

12-24"

a legit FOLKS almost

I'm trusting PSU over JB any day of the week

Okay, let's try to do another good, informative post so TSSN thinks my account is still hacked. In my opinion, we're either going to get the January 15-16 storm, the January 18-20 storm, or we're going to get neither. The kicker poor wave spacing , while not helping our 15th system actually helps the second wave (for the 18-20th) as I think that the residual energy from the kicker helps with a stronger +PNA, helping slow down the jet stream so the original kicker can tilt negative and bam. This is getting the the end of my knowledge however so I'm not 100% whether this analysis is correct. If I'm wrong please correct me

You have extremely high expectations for me that will NOT achieve.

1/15-16 is still on the table but we need lots of things to go right for us. IMO the CAPE timeframe is the better look, and CPC agrees.

Dude, don't worry about it. You have a son and wife to take care of. Relax!

I want to say I saw this in an Eric Webb X post that he did a week-ish ago. He mentioned 2014 and -EPO/+TNH and how it's a pattern that's hard to predict, probably excavated it from the back of my mind.

It's all me, no AI. I'm a dumbass but I've been here for over a year so I should be learning something lol

better than January 2014?

-EPO/+TNH is a highly volatile pattern where even a slight difference can lead to the difference between a raging SE ridge and Jan 2014 cold. IMO the pattern looks like Jan 2014 at this juncture, don't think we'll get a big dog but multiple 2-4", 3-6" events are on the table, maybe even a 6-10" event.

The CMC is cold fluff verbatim. Likely would've been an 8-12" deal if the run ran a little longer.

CMC looks damn good. 4-6+" with more still to go

you get the honors for the snow map this time

This is correct. I always post the most informative maps, and they are never wrong. Ji never cancels winter, he's the most patient, poised one out of all of us.

you must be an avid poster. 62k posts in one day is a lot for your second day.

The good thing about the 12z GFS is now we have a model showing the high potential this system has. A 985 low forms just off the outer banks and gives them a foot of snow. It's still 7 days out... but I am starting to like the trends.

if this low ticks west 200 miles then that's a 980 tucked low off of the delmarva

it is a true blessing to have two kids, but it is NOT a blessing for your kids to contaminate your mind with useless stuff.

Someone would get hit pretty decent if it the Euro ran a little longer.

cool trend

this is the most accurate thing ever lol but 95% of people here have no idea what sybau means lol

it's okay since it's from the most reliable, non-volatile, non-snow bias model the GFS

Total 4-8 for Baltimore, 6-10 for DC, 12+ fredricksburg south