bncho

CO2 levels around 1800 were approximately 280ppm. That number has raised to 420ppm, an increase of 50%! It's not about the small percentage that's in the atmosphere. It's more about the drastic increase! Without CO2 (assuming plants weren't affected), Earth would probably be WAY too cold for the current multicellular organisms to survive save for a few species. Despite how little CO2 makes up the atmosphere it leaves a big impact!

It started with CO2 emissions. By itself it warmed the environment (a little bit) but more importantly it kickstarted a positive feedback loop with water vapor, which is also a pretty potent greenhouse gas (albeit not to the extent of CO2 when comparing it molecule by molecule). Warmer temps can hold more water vapor, so the water vapor traps more heat, and the even warmer air can hold even more water vapor, so the additional water vapor traps even more heat, etc., etc., there's your positive feedback loop (also ice melting = less radiational energy reflected = warmer temps, another positive feedback loop). So with the increasing amount of CO2 emissions every year this loop only increases in rate over time. I don't know too much about methane and CFCS so i didn't mention them. It would be much appreciated to tell me more about those greenhouse gases.

Wait next year, we'll have some of those yellows and reds, even those purples

Usually it'd be where the 0c line is for 850s and/or where the 540 line sets up, but there's a pesky warm nose at 925mb that keeps all that precip mainly rain, unless you around the M/D line

Euro AI

Are we reeling this one in?

The NAM is good at thermals, right? Right?

For Mitch and TSSN.

The EPO also has a stronger corrleation to temps in the Eastern US than the WPO. We would need a stronger -WPO to neutralize any effects an +EPO might have IMO.

snowfall accums are paltry even at the m/d line, but it's better

Everytime we are at a crossroads...

MECS/borderline HECS on the Euro AI. Subtract about 2-5" for anywhere that is DC and NW due to the 2/15 event.

@Heisy there's a stationary 980-990 bomb for your timeframe

Euro more amped, henceforth colder and norther

Are we back?

Euro AI is really good

The GFS was really close to something for the 24th, if NS had phased quicker it'd have turned neg tilt quicker and probably have been an HECS it also kinda looks like the Feb 2025 debacle, similar setup, same time of year, but i'd definitely run that look back

The GFS was really close to something for the 24th, if NS had phased quicker it'd have turned neg tilt way quicker and probably have been an HECS it also kinda looks like the Feb 2025 debacle, similar setup, same time of year, but i'd definitely run that look back

Make the sacrifice quick.

so the 850s were colder but the 925s are torching, no snow anywhere

Euro is a touch souther with the precip but it's colder than 18z at the upper levels. Snow maps incoming

oh yeah baby

0z GFS has the Feb 22-23 thing, it's a high end advisory event That timeframe could hold potential. Seems like CAPE's original storm will track too far north but will bring in some cold air for the follow up wave to ride the boundary. Pretty simple way to score around here. btw since i said all this it's now my storm and not Ji's storm even though his analysis is better.

AI GFS better, GFS worse

I like where that 540 line is