Look at that confidence interval as well...
We've got the day after the second Feb 2010 blizzard, the day before the blizzard of 2016...
and then there's Feb 18, 2025
Looking over Kuchera it looks like the average GFS ratio is ~14:1 while the average Euro ratio will be ~13:1 (for DC, Balt) Take from that what you will, but I would say that's a decent estimate, if anything a little bit high.
I would generally agree with the fact that the CMC hasn't won anything yet, but you don't have to be a complete asshole and add that "common sense" remark. Come on...
18z Euro is the exact same other than the fact that the snow thump had slightly less purchase and the mix line moved about 3 miles NW (that's not even an exaggeration). Hold in my book.