bncho

MJO is a pattern driver. That means that it will favor certain patterns, but that doesn't mean those favored patterns will happen all the time. If it's a look like @brooklynwx99 showed up there, the MJO is negligible.

This is a bncho performance in PBP.

Here's the SPIRE for reference... quite INSPIRING

UKIE starts as rain but flips to mod-heavy snow as the low turns stronger

CMC puts all of that energy into the CAPE cutter

My big fear is that we end up too far south for the redeveloping Miller B, but at this lead time, it's very encouraging.

I'm going to crash out if we have to deal with another messy 5" while NYC and BOS get 20" of cold smoke

Low-end warning/high end advisory event on the GFS

You sound like my awful PBP. Anyway, it starts as rain but flips to some nice snowfall

You ARE cherry picking. Why the hell are you choosing 1956? And when you add twenty years to that, 1976, 1996, 2016... the numbers go up only because of COINCIDENCE. The 1950s were MUCH snowier than you think they were, too! Here are the ten-year averages, also graphed below: 1891-1900: 27.1" 1901-1910: 23.1" 1911-1920: 23.0" 1921-1930: 20.0" 1931-1940: 21.0" 1941-1950: 18.5" 1951-1960: 18.5" 1961-1970: 26.5" 1971-1980: 14.5" 1981-1990: 15.4" 1991-2000: 16.3" 2001-2010: 18.0" 2011-2020: 14.9" 2021-2025: 6.8" The UHI effect isn't negligible, but it should NOT cause this steep of a decrease in snowfall!

I always thought of a Hudson High as a super southwest based -NAO… would you agree?

You’re cherry picking your years, dude. It’s obvious. Also, explain to me how the seasonal 30 year average at DCA went from 25 to 14” in a span of 100 years without attributing it to a warmer climate?

Event 2:

1st event (I-95 screw zone):

Euro has two events (I think, basing off 2m temps and precip). One for the 23rd (maybe 2-4"?) and one for March 1st-2nd (rain to snow?)

if some of that euro AI output is sleet it'll happen. We do sleet very well in the MA.

DRIZZLE!

We're BACK!!!!!

Might as well play along with this, here's the 6z Euro AI for the 22nd-23rd

I know that it was forecasted. And I'm not saying he was necessarily "wrong" in terms of following that forecast. But I don't know what he was predicting beforehand, that's why I said I couldn't remember.

genuinely why are we doing this to ourselves

It's fine. I know the drill. You guys are going to sacrifice me now.

I remember that 30-day MJO 8 prediction, I can't really remember much else

Chuck is like Spock. He's very smart and rational, but he's always such a buzzkill.