bncho

I'm the best met in town. You should wake up at 4-5 AM. Get some sleep while you can right now.

warm nose underperformance?

JFC look at that 2z NAM... really thumpy for Bobby Chilly Land!

we would only have to bust -0.5*C cold on upper level temps for that to happen IMO... how hard is that?

That must be why they have such high totals!

Maybe it's a county thing?

Just realized that there is absolutely no salt on the roads. Thank God!

Not until that donut fills in!

Isn't the cold air up at 700-800mb, though? That's not really "near" the surface. Wouldn't it be more of a gradient just because the warm nose just takes a little bit longer to reach those NW areas not because of elevation, but because they're just farther NW?

That's what I thought, makes sense.

How much of an effect does living west of the fall line have with this CAD setup?

Wow! That's super bullish!

can you show soil temps?

3" an inch rates if ratios are 11:1 or higher. Holy smokes.

At least you'll probably beat out the 3k NAM, which had you down for about ~1".

In case people forgot what inches of sleet looks like... https://x.com/ToddYakoubian/status/2015070817290174742

Euro AI is NICE! That's like 12" of snow in DC verbatim!!!!

18, busted low from 21!

Will this greatly improve the verification scores of the American models? Will the GFS be an actual model to consider once this new core is implemented?

What does the precip arriving earlier implicate?

1/25-26 Final Call Snowfall Forecast — Courtesy of the JV Team Like last time, hopefully the maps are pretty self-explanatory, which showcase snow totals and sleet totals, and the thick blue line is the dividing line between all snow and mixing, which was shifted north due to trends towards a more aggressive warm nose. However, my idea about the most impactful winter storm in the DMV region since 2016 has not changed. Snowfall ratios will be very high at onset and will drop to more normal levels right before the flip to sleet. The snow will start at approximately midnight, gradually increasing in intensity. Moderate snow will overtake the area around 4 AM before turning heavy—from 7 AM to noon, snowfall rates will be upwards of 1-2" per hour. Afterwards, a flip to heavy sleet will occur, and many will likely be measuring sleet in inches. It's likely that the metros will eventually flip to freezing rain/drizzle, too, making conditions all the more treacherous. Temperatures will also likely remain below 28 for metros as well, ensuring no melting occurs, which will create a mess. This wintry mess is why this will be the most impactful storm since 2016, as this will likely turn into thick glacier overnight, which will be extremely hard to clean up. After the storm, temperatures remain frigid. Tuesday morning could record below-zero temperatures, and the high temperature will likely fail to reach 32 until February. This was a rollercoaster of a ride to track, but I'm grateful I got to track it with all of you! Snow is snow, and snow is beautiful. Let's get buried!