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bncho

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Everything posted by bncho

  1. bncho
    I think we jinxed it lol. The reason why we got the January cold was because we were so pessimistic about it. "February 2024 incoming" and all that but it turned out to be good. Now once we're optimistic about a short warmup then it all goes to shit and it looks bad.
  2. bncho
    Y'know, this upcoming pattern may suck, and hoping for March snow is almost always a let down, but hey, maybe we can get a mid-February surprise.
  3. bncho
    yeah these posts are confusing me as well
  4. bncho
    In late-December we had thought this warm-up would be in early-mid January and last forever. We pushed it back to the first week of February, and it's only going to last 5 days. Is this the first time a can-kick worked in our favor?
  5. bncho
    did the early-feb snowstorm risk come back from the dead? hell yes.
  6. bncho
    might just be noise but its something to watch
  7. bncho
    GFS is a poor run overall, unless you include 384 hr fantasy stuff.
  8. bncho
    Thank you, I’ll be sure to add 'Professional Storm Predictor' to my resume right next to 'Time Traveler'.
  9. bncho
    I think that the best-case scenario for our end-of-month threat is a 4-8" I-95 and 8-12" NW, almost like a 20% reduction of Feb 11 2014. Once we get into mid-late Feb, we should see some more chances with the AO/NAO flip. This winter is seeming like a slightly worse 2013-14. Hopefully we can get the snow in March like we did in March 2014.
  10. bncho
    Everyone was disappointed when a Nino didn't produce. That felt like a last chance.
  11. bncho
    King Euro.
  12. bncho
    Toss the GFS and Euro AI. Now onto the Euro.
  13. bncho
    It's extremely hard to get a really big snowstorm (12+") sometime other than an El Nino. Expectations should be kept in check for the rest of this season. We got our big-ish one on 1/6. Now we should be take our 1-3" and 2-4" events when they come until we get another AO/NAO flip to negative.
  14. bncho
    Yeah, 100% this. Our 1/6 storm was a 1 in 5-10 chance. 1996 was a 1 in 50 chance. It's hard to get that lucky.
  15. bncho
    g o o d o r b a d Good, right?
  16. bncho
    Sure, that may be true. But was our January pattern really a fail? Sure, maybe for you, but most of Maryland and DC scored. Were we supposed to expect two 6-12" miller As with five additions 1-3 and 2-4" events?
  17. bncho
    If I hear that winter isn't over then I'm all for it. March snow may be in March but hey, is it snow!
  18. bncho
  19. bncho
    Combine this with the Modoki Nino the CANSIPS is showing lol
  20. bncho
    Sorry. I meant I'm glad we can identify storm threats at 200 hrs. The message wasn't very clear.
  21. bncho
    I am insanely glad that our storm threats are 200+ hours out instead of <100 hours.
  22. bncho
    watch out for the "consistency" of the AI lol
  23. bncho
    "Who said global warming was real" - some dummy probably
  24. bncho
    x3
  25. bncho
    I'm literally getting 35 mph wind gusts with snow. Blizzard conditions right now lol
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