stormy

I agree when you say the odds of each flip are not affected by the other flips. But, I have observed a 75% likely aberration of flipping to above normal snowfall the year after well below normal snowfall. Two of those 4 above normal winters had a neutral Enso condition. One was a weak La Nina at - .9c. One was a weak El Nino at +.9c. This past winter gave well below normal snowfall with a neutral to slightly positive Enso. at 0.0 to + 0.5 Enso based predictions would have been anomalously above actuality. Next winter enso? We don't know, latest CPC probabilities issued March 19: 37% neutral, 31% La Nina, 32% El Nino

Based on the last 40 years, that is a reasonable assumption. What is your assumption otherwise???? LOL in advance......

I feel quite comfortable with a near 0% probability. Thanks for your interest! Have a great day!!

My total this winter was 5.2". The lowest total was 1991-92 at 3.10". The following winter came in at 36.5". Next is 1980-81 at 3.20" followed by 34.5" in 81-82. 2016-17 yielded 4.50" followed by 18.4" in 17-18. 2001- 02 came in with 5.50" followed by 35.50" in 02-03.

During the past 40 years, I have never had two very low snowfall winters consecutively. Something to look forward next year. .5" of snow last night with 33 degrees. 1 - 3 inches on the surrounding mountains.

12z Nam increased qpf from .31 to .61 over o6z out in the valley. This increased the snow potential for Augusta from 2.1" to 4.7".

I received 1.33" of rain during the last 16 hours. Wonderful!

Augusta qpf dropped from .75 to .47: 12z - 18z

I still believe possibly 1-3 for Valley Augusta. Above 2000 ft. 3- 5. Above 3500 ft. 5 - 10 depending on qp.

A GFS/ECM blend gives me 7.25 inches.

I could believe 1-3" slushy acc. on grass. That would be the latest acc. during the last 50 years. Prior was 9" on April 7, 1971.

The Euro on steroids. It spikes my area from 2.5 at 00z to 4.1 at 12z.

A 6 am 3 model blend (GFS/ECM/GEM) gives Augusta County 1.68 rain late Sunday through Monday. If this verifies, it would be the greatest event rainfall since January 25.

I have received .39" of much needed rain during the past 24 hours.

I'll take about 8 - 12 inches of wet snow. Wonderful moisture additive. 49 years ago today, my area received 8 - 10 inches of snow.

I'm sorry Will but as I explained last week, 10 day precip. maps almost always dry up recently. To dry from 2.56 to .85 is the same old story, but that will change.

I'm odd in the respect of being concerned about a recurring pattern that has resulted in less than 50% rainfall for a large portion of my immediate region during the past month. I'm odd in the respect that I am very sensitive to the hardship that will be created for many people engaged in agricultural pursuits if this pattern repeats and persists during April and May. Reasonable people would have the attitude, hey, I hope you folks down in the central valley do better with rainfall during April than you did during March. Unfortunately, you don't seem to be in that reasonable category. I agree with PSU in believing that we will see a change during the next month or two. If we don't, things will be bad for a lot of people. Have A good day.

Thank you! I I have been thinking too much zonal flow that puts us in the shadow of the western mountains and too much repetitive high pressure surface and aloft over Virginia that simply dries out systems trying to move in.

The 06z GFS believes the next 10 days will be an instant replay:

PSU : I am waiting patiently. Please don't disappoint.

.16 rain last 3 hours. 41 degrees at 7:44. 30 miles to my west at 4000 ft., 1-2 inches of snowfall during the past 2 hours.

Light rain began about 20 minutes ago, 46 degrees. Yes, it does rain in Augusta, once in a while.

OK, you are a smart person regarding climate cycles and weather patterns. I'll give you that much. Will you please give it your best shot to explain why this hopefully short term anomaly has occurred? The 00z ECMWF believes it will continue for at least the next 10 days though the precipitation hole does shift a little northeast. For at least the past month, if the GFS, ECM or GEM sees a break coming, it always repeats as we get to 2 - 5 days before showtime. Please give me an educated and reasonable explanation.

You're such a lucky fellow, why should you worry? Be thankful you don't live in D.C. where that Democratic mayor (Muriel Bowser) suffers from??? Threatening people with 90 days in jail and a $5000 fine for leaving their homes!!!!!! Back to the here and now, my yard is at 38% for March. But, I am heartened this morning since my 48 hr. 5 model blended qpf has increased from .22 yesterday to .38 this morning. That is a step in the right direction to ameliorate my 2.35" deficit for March. Oh, by the way for PSU, the county hasn't zoned those corn and soybean fields to mandate that they properly utilize available moisture!!! Hilarious!!!!

You need to drive down to Highland west. The latest GFS and Nam say 2 - 4 inches for that area.