PhiEaglesfan712

Not everyone got screwed. The midwest got a good November/December and March/April out of this. Timing is what screwed it up on the East coast. When you break 2022-23 down into 2-month blocks, it gets very interesting. If only May/June was January/February instead.

The way the last week of April, and all of May and June were cold shows that the 2022-23 set-up can work. However, the pattern that came on in March needs to be in place 3-4 months earlier (in November or December) to work. The potential is there for snow with a cold January/February or February/March. We're not going to get snow with a cold May/June.

The CFS is now showing a cold September, as well as a cool autumn:

Moderate vs. Strong la nina composites. Moderate la nina: Moderates without 84-85 and 95-96 (could be a good analog for this upcoming winter): Strong la nina:

Winter peaking moderate vs. strong vs. super el nino composites. Moderate el ninos (this seeems like the sweet spot, if you want a cold and snowy winter): Strong el ninos (hit or miss, for every 1957-58 and 2009-10, there's a 2023-24): Super el ninos (SOL, unless you get that big storm like 1983 and 2016):

I just took a look at those seasons. 1966 perfectly fits the definition of a skew season. This is one where the strongest storm (Inez) and 2nd strongest (Faith) ate up all the ACE, lol. 1968 was a tame season. All 3 of the hurricanes were category 1's. Not to mention, we had a long lull from mid-June to mid-August with no storms, and there were no major hurricanes. Then again, this was a developing el nino season, one that reached moderate strength. 1995 and 2005 have been discussed ad nauseum. 2005 is the mother of all seasons. That one was already hyperactive at this point, as we were already on 'I' (with Irene). We're not going to reach any of those benchmarks this season, lol. (We could reach the 1995 marks, though.)

This is the absolute worst set of la ninas you can use for this upcoming winter, but if you ever have a +PDO la nina winter, here is the analog:

Fall 2024 temperature outlook: Winter 2024-25 temperature outlook: Spring 2025 temperature outlook:

Hypothetically, what could happen if a strong la nina peaked in summer 2025:

I feel like 22-23 would have been more cold and snowy in the East Coast if the set-up was in place a few months earlier. We got the cold, but it was in late April through June. Imagine if the pattern was 3 months earlier. This is the late April rainstorm we got. Imagine if it was in late January, the heart of winter: 2023-04-26 64 43 53.5 -4.9 11 0 0.06 2023-04-27 61 49 55.0 -3.7 10 0 0.05 2023-04-28 56 49 52.5 -6.5 12 0 1.33 2023-04-29 61 49 55.0 -4.4 10 0 0.63 2023-04-30 63 52 57.5 -2.2 7 0 1.51 Or if this happened in March, instead of June: 2023-06-14 77 63 70.0 -3.2 0 5 0.17 2023-06-15 79 59 69.0 -4.6 0 4 0.00 2023-06-16 73 61 67.0 -6.9 0 2 1.04 Of if the record cold summer soltice happened on the vernal equinox instead: 2023-06-21 66 59 62.5 -12.9 2 0 0.18 2023-06-22 68 59 63.5 -12.1 1 0 T 2023-06-23 73 63 68.0 -7.9 0 3 0.56 2023-06-24 82 69 75.5 -0.7 0 11 0.02 2023-06-25 87 68 77.5 1.1 0 13 0.09 2023-06-26 87 67 77.0 0.4 0 12 0.51 2023-06-27 84 66 75.0 -1.9 0 10 1.07

Not really. Dean and Felix didn't prevent 2007 from being a very low ACE season total, despite that year doing close to the climatological normals numberwise (15/6/2).

Individual moderate la nina events. 1949-50 (Yes, this was east-based): 1970-71 (possibly east based): 1984-85 (possibly east based): 1995-96: 2011-12: 2020-21: 2021-22 (Yes, this is east based): 2022-23:

Composite of the ONI moderate la nina years (updated to include the 2020-23 triple la nina):

1998-99 had some moments. It was warm for most of the winter, but we got some good snows in the first half of January and in mid-March. Also, the snow on Dec 23-24, just a few days after we had 60-degree record warmth (and a few weeks earlier, it was in the 70s). That was the White Christmas that came out of nowhere! (We're well overdue for a White Christmas. I think the last one was 2002.)

Hypothetical summer 2025 strong la nina peak:

For the individual ones, it looks like 1975-76 is the closest to an east-based la nina. 1973-74: 1975-76: 1988-89: 1998-99: 1999-2000: 2007-08: The year with the closest to the east-based la nina is the one with the warmest RONI (peaked at only -1.14). All the other years at least got down to the -1.5 mark. I guess to get an east-based la nina, we may need a cold ONI and a warmer RONI, which of course, we're not getting this year.

Here is the composite of all the ONI strong la nina years:

What site did you use to get this? And how far does this go back? I want to see if I can create the other strong la nina years.

How do you do these composites? I want to be able to do some of my own.

While we're at it, can someone run the composite of the 8 ONI strong la ninas: 1955-56, 1973-74, 1975-76, 1988-89, 1998-99, 1999-2000, 2007-08, and 2010-11?

My thinking is that this upcoming winter will be similar to 1998-99 and 2007-08. Both were strong la ninas with cold subsurfaces. We'll likely have below average snowfall and above average temperatures, but there will be a moment of snow or two. Fall is most likely going to be warm and dry, while spring will be much closer to average temperaturewise.

I really like my analog years of 1998 and 2007. Those are the la nina years since 1949-50 that best fits a warm/dry temperature/precipitation profile. 1998 has all 3 months above average temperature and below average precipitation. 2007 works as well, except we had that mudstorm the last weekend of October that pushed the October precipation above average and November was below average. 1998: Sep (71.8F, +3F above average, 1.86 in); Oct (58.3F, +1.1F above average, 1.84 in); Nov (48.2 F, +1.1F above average, 1.18 in) 2007: Sep (72F, +3F above average, 0.58 in); Oct (64.5F, +7.3F above average, 4.66 in [2.83 from 10/23 to 10/27]); Nov (45.7F, -1.4F below average, 1.45 in) Uses 1971-2000 averages

Oh gosh, I hope not, lol. That would mean well above average temps and wet weather for October-January. At PHL, November 1976 was the coldest/driest on record, and January 1977 was the coldest on record. After the last 5 years, I really don't want a record warm/wet November and a record warm January. On the flip side, this would mean a cold spring (March-May), with a dry March and April, which probably means no meaningful snow, unless February (which would be a close to average month, but still wet) provides an opening for some snow. Either way, a very depressing fall/winter/spring combination. I'll rather have the anti-1986/87 analog. We may still get an above average temperature winter and a below average temperature spring, but at least the departure will be much closer to average. Plus, there's a better chance of snow potential sprinkled throughout the winter.

I definitely disagree with November being the warmest of the 3 months, at least here at PHL. I think September and October are going to be well above average. In fact, if there is a below average month in the fall, I think it's November.

I don't like the 22-23 analog at all. That was a 3rd year nina that pretty much peaked in the summer and dissipated during the winter. Plus, that one had a warm subsurface. This is pretty much an opposite set-up to what we have this year. Now, if we have the scenario where a strong la nina peaks next summer, I'd use it as an analog for 2025-26. But definitely not a good analog for this year.