Brian5671
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2/13 Significant/Major Winter Storm Discussion & Observations
Brian5671 replied to Northof78's topic in New York City Metro
Urban areas may struggle...ground is warm and the days leading up to the storm are warm-a night time event with heavy rates would do the trick however. Best shot is N and W where you have some elevation to work with and closer to any available colder air.... -
Incredible post. Thank you.
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any cold air that does move south and east will certainly moderate over snowless ground and mostly ice free lakes
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No cold air....same problem all winter....
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If that's the case averages are in the low to mid 40's by then....that coupled with the data about having no snow by late January (The season tends to not produce if that's the case) then it might be about over...
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Story of the last 2 yrs...cold has been very hard to come by-relying on a storm bombing in the perfect spot to deliver the goods otherwise.
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b/c it's the long range. we've been chasing the LR since Thanksgiving with 2 inches of snow to show for it. Hope it happens but there's reason to be skeptical given the winter to date.
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Not to mention 5 days of almost clear skies after 10 days overcast and 40 degrees
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Wonder who that is...LOL
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Twitter has an expert for everything ya know....
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Rain. it's in the 50's and 60's in the days before the storm-where's any cold air coming from?
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yeah the airmass is crap. we've seen how that works out in the past....
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Good-too much -NAO is congrats DC
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we've been kicking the can since Thanksgiving-first it was a great pattern starting xmas week, then it was Jan 1st, then into mid Jan, which a brief window of cold occurred followed by what will be a 3-4 week "thaw" basically a 10 day winter so far.....hopefully it comes but hard not to be somewhat skeptical given the last 2 years of garbage and fantasy long range model runs
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Heard they were run out of JB's basement today...
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On Saturday yes, we could be in the 60's. Torch!!!!
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Rule of thumb-if the OP runs show snow at Day 10 they are great models...if they show rain and warmth then they are terrible.
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This is what's amazing. Other than a small area here and there snowfall is way down everywhere. There's almost no snow cover anywhere right now other than mountain regions...Great lakes are virtually ice free....going to moderate any cold that moves south if that persists...
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Fat lady's gearing up....
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God Forbid we see +5 or +8 in July
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Yep-very similar to last year outside of a week of cold in mid Jan another top 10 warmest winter in NYC is all but guaranteed....haven't used my snowblower since Jan 2022 was in Home Depot yesterday-all the winter merchandise sitting there with dust on it...
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yeah at least they had that...we're on the road to 2 epic clunkers in a row. the year after our worst winters usually fared better (02-03 and 12-13)
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Upper midwest too. Minneapolis has something like 8 inches of snow on the year.
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dry and cold would be the final FU from mother nature for this horrid winter
