AccuChris
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Everything posted by AccuChris
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12z UKMET shows light snow event Sunday as well .
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12z Euro definitely focusing on Sunday and next Thursday events. Will see if GFS jumps back on the Sunday train in future runs .
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12z GFS so far for the weekend and next week was a swing and a miss for all systems in our area to produce snow. Going to be model mayhem for several more days for sure .
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18z GFS says screw you if you live here lol .
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Regardless of snow chances, all models show some impressive cold potential the next two weeks. Any snowfall would only enhance the deep freeze. No January thaw on the horizon yet .
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Exactly 1” of snow here in Lebanon .
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18z GFS kuchera snow map for the weekend event .
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12z GFS snowfall for Saturday .
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Something was wonky with the 12z NAM. Texas had basically no winter weather on its run and is completely opposite of the 12z RGEM and its prior runs. .
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0z NAM at hour 84…looks amped heading northeast .
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We are due for a shut down storm with drifts over the mailbox like yester-year .
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18z GFS hanging on to the big storm idea Saturday it seems .
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Ironically, we may not want the whole piece to come out quickly as one lobe as it could phase too fast and try and cut inland. Now there is definitely blocking which helps but there is no doubt there will be a juiced up southern branch and energy diving in from Canada. Not more we can ask for at this point…other than a chance .
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It likely doesnt come up at all and will be a southern slider wave. Need that southern shortwave to come out in full or at least a big enough piece to let the northern branch dive into it and take on a negative tilt. Bottom line is the players are there and the GFS has shown what COULD happen if it does phase. Who knows if it will or wont…yet .
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18z ICON close to a phase for the weekend as well .
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Long range 18z NAM looks juicy for next weekend .
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12z Euro is going to be a miss for the Saturday event but it was improved over its 6z run. The Euro is notorious but dragging its heels with southern shortwaves in the southwest so the fact it is showing “something” is encouraging at this point .
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Sitting at just about 2” here in Lebanon with it really tapering off now. The irony is we were all worried and expecting the heavy stuff to stay just south but in actuality, the 700mb FGEN snow zone in northern PA really squeezed the LSV and Maryland into a zone of subsidence so even areas to our south may wind up below their expected ranges where northern PA may get more than us when most models showed absolutely nada for them this whole time. Weather will always keep man and machine humble .
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1” in Lebanon at this time .
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I am loving this 500mb chart at the end of the 0z NAM for the weekend storm potential. Kick that southern piece out and look out .
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0z long range HRRR kuchera snow map .
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18z GFS back on the blizzard train next Saturday. Hurricane force wind gusts just offshore and 973mb low off the Jersey shore .
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Ground reports line up nicely with the 700mb relative humidity shading. As the confluence retreats our winds should shift more west and southwesterly which will advect the midlevel moisture overhead. Once that green shading overtakes our region snow should commence .
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Snow reaching the ground in areas not too far away from PA at this hour .
