AccuChris

Its all about that lobe on your graphic over MN and IA. Its holding back and keeping it positively tilted. If that kicks down it changes the whole configuration and the storm is blowing up over the southern mid-atlantic states .

GFS is just a wave that keeps getting pushed along by the northern branch. Need phasing, a capture and deepening. At this point, I dont trust anything beyond hour 72 honestly .

Yes, the 500mb on 18z is way different than on the 12z. Very volatile situation .

To me, the whole key is the northern energy rounding the western periphery of the Plains high diving into the southern branch shortwave and driving the trough neutral to negative and forcing height rises along the east coast. If they stay separate and the southern stream sprints off then you get what the GFS was showing. If it all bundles then you get the epic solutions of the Euro and GEM had been showing .

Not saying the outcome will be ultimately like this but there are SOME similarities to next weeks set up and the Blizzard of ‘96. Or note, the 3-6 day models all struggled initially with the storm and many had the storm heading out to sea and sparring NYC northeastward. There was strong high pressure over New England and the Northern Plains and ejecting energy out of the southwest with low pressure that developed over the Gulf States. That storm never went below 982mb but had a perfect phase and closing off of the upper and mid-levels. Ironically, its surface maps look similar to what the models (the runs that really go wild) are depicting next week. .

Total snow in Lebanon 2” and just went to sleet. Temp 31° .

1” of snow in Lebanon now with moderate snow continuing .

12z Euro took a step south and east like the GEM. Long way to go .

Here you go .

Thats a real beauty there .

12z UKMET looks textbook Miller A blizzard .

Of course GFS starts coming around and the most-amped GEM took a slide the other way lol. Models will waggle around for a couple more days no doubt .

GFS much better obviously for next week but its not done correcting yet. Big step .

Here, fixed it. GFS made a major trend towards the GEM/Euro just now. It should continue to correct as it still has feedback issues and true SLP location issues .

12z GFS hour 108 looks better than the 6z. More energy hanging back and bundled, better negative tilt .

Its struggle (assuming its wrong with its solutions), is what it always struggles with in phasing systems…string out the energy and hand off the southern stream way out in front via feedback and the whole thing cant bundle. This is the first time in a long while we are actually looking at a potential Miller A full phase system so yes, lots can go wrong and thats why we dont get “the big one” often. This is tricky as it all needs to line up versus just some massive southern branch over-running feature attacking a cold high. This is “big risk-big reward”. We may not get a true consensus until 12z Monday honestly .

Lets see if the GFS starts trending towards the Euro today. ICON and 6z Euro AI were good starts .

6z Euro AI has shifted slightly west compared to 0z and even more so compared to the way out to sea runs previously. Baby steps .

18z Euro still “all in” on major storm next week .

Here you go .

12z Euro tucked and loaded for next week .

12z ICON fairly wound up for next weeks potential .

Moderate snow presently in Lebanon. Temp 31° Sun angle keeping roads wet [emoji2957] .

I lied; it was still at 6z. Disregard. Down everywhere .

So far, 12z Euro wants none of it with regards to any front end snow Saturday, keeps the primary wound up and west of the mountains and pops temps close to 60° Sunday .