AccuChris

Picked up 1” overnight in Lebanon .

Well stated. I know a lot of people want the weekend system to cut to allow more height rises next week for a more bundled system but we cannot keep kicking the can down the road waiting for “the big one”. Lets not forget a week ago the models were jumping on this weekend as the possible “big one” and now its next week. Even this current event was supposed to be much more impactful for our area and clearly it is not. I would love for this weekends event to dump a moderate amount on Saturday and have the frontal zone more towards the east coast and cut off the warm nose to our east and let the new low ride the boundary into the coastal plain. Euro is not there yet but plenty other models are starting to hint at it .

Well, f*ck me I guess .

Light flurries have commenced near Lebanon .

12z Euro was not very good for us. Way too warm and amped for this weekends storm and was much flatter for next weeks event and gives love to the southern half of the MA but doesnt phase much .

Its very spotty and disorganized, especially for the second wave no doubt. It really has been banging the drum that very little accumulation makes it into PA tonight. Will be curious the final outcome tomorrow morning since the NAM suite has been much more generous .

The HRRR just refuses to be impressed with any of this for these two waves. Has basically nothing precip-wise for the LSV today/tonight or for tomorrow night .

FWIW, long range HRRR for wave #1 not very impressive .

Long range HRRR says “meh” with tomorrow nights wave .

Doesnt look bad this “far” out .

Absolutely dumping in NYC right now .

Another 18z GFS glacier run .

Looks like I picked a good weekend to be in NYC…lets see how 3-5” of snow works out here .

While the 18z Euro only goes out to hour 144, it looks very similar to the 18z GFS, FWIW .

Why not .

I have to justify my subscription cost lol .

Well this is a fun 9 days upcoming lol .

The 12z Euro Ensemble is just incredible. The GFS and Canadian suites also look similar .

Its a tough call. Typically, the warm nose is under-modeled but the low level cold is always modeled too warm during the event. The latest HRRR paints more freezing rain than sleet and no snow. I think any snow is short-lived and maybe 1/2” of sleet then 0.2” of freezing rain. Looks to he pushing out of the area around 10am. .

30/18 in Lebanon presently .

Total kuchera snow through the period on the Euro .

Latest HRRR putting down quite a bit of snow tonight .

Well I was pretty close with my CTP guess for a WWA .

I would be surprised if they went Winter Storm Watch. My guess is they will issue a WWA for LSV from noon Wednesday to noon Thursday for up to 1” of sleet/snow and 1 to 2 tenths of an inch of ice .

Bring it on lol .