AccuChris
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Everything posted by AccuChris
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Latest tweet from crazy uncle JB
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Typically, especially in February, a sub 980-ish storm near the Delmarva is a locked down major snowstorm for our area. Obviously, the lack of cold air and a strong high to the north make this tricky. BUT, a deepening storm with strong forcing and ascent can definitely manufacture its own cold as these models are now showing. Rates could be very impressive…maybe someone hears some thundersnow??
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Another view of 0z Icon…ticked south about 25 miles compared to its 18z run
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My temp now is 42° and DP is 34
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NWS CTP updated their discussion at 9:07PM (before 0z NAM came in) and were already discussing significant snow may now make it down to the I-81 corridor and they will ride the watch still
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Average kuchera snowfall blended between 0z HRRR and 0z 3km NAM for Lebanon County blends to about 9-10” and 1.3” LE
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0z 3km NAM 10:1 and kuchera snow maps zoomed in from WB products
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If the NAM is anywhere close to accurate NWS CTP would need to flip where they have the WSW up and put it much farther south
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Another 0z NAM kuchera view
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0z NAM crush job at hour 36
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At hour 33 SLP is in souther VA and no primary up into WV…similar to HRRR
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0z HRRR total QPF, 10:1 snow map and Kuchera snow map….
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HRRR slightly colder and SLP cuts east across Virginia to the Delmarva. “Puking” snow come sunrise for many
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Another view of 18z Euro EPS mean snowfall 10:1
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18z Euro was a tad slower and just a touch farther south…miles count for us in the LSV for sure
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Definitely a subtle shift south on the 18z runs. Another 40 mile shift south would put many people in 6+” amounts
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Icon and Canadian suites were non-events for our area 24 hours ago and now the RGEM is printing out higher totals not far to our NE and coming more in line with the other guidance. I will be looking at the 0z HRRR long run again to see how consistent it is with itself from 18z
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18z 3km NAM and 18z long range HRRR are VERY similar in all aspects. Id take my 5” snowfall as both show for Lebanon. Technically, would be the biggest single snowfall of the year for here as I believe the biggest so far was 4” and I am sitting at 11.5” on the season so far
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Here is the 15z SREF ARW, NMB, and the mean solution
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Hour 48 on HRRR has storm ending in CTP and wrapping up in eastern PA. This would be very nice if it could verify. Essentially dumps 2-5” for many in under 4 hours
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Latest long range HRRR showing some intense snowfall come 7AM Tuesday
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Long range HRRR snow. Note is still snowing for most at this point. In the LSV, if you are south of the turnpike its a battle most of the night. North and west of I-81 and north of Route 78 turn over to snow most quickly
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0z RGEM continues to say “what snow” in central PA. Thermals are just too warm for most. 925mb temps hover around 0-+1C and surface temps top 50° on Monday and only mid-30s during height of event. We will see
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0z NAM….overall looks similar
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21z SREF NMB coming in..the mean hasnt generated yet
