AccuChris

12z Euro op kuchera op .

Another 12z GFS kuchera look .

GFS very Canadian-ish .

12z RGEM kuchera map .

RGEM goes boom again .

12z RGEM locked and loaded .

12z Icon definitely an improvement compared to its 6z run .

12z 3km NAM better. Actually starts this Sunday morning on the arctic boundary and looks like what the 12z HRRR was indicating earlier. I suspect this will continue to get in line in subsequent runs .

I cannot figure out the NAM this week. Typically, it is one of the more “over-amped” models and over does systems. For whatever reason, it cannot find this storm. Either its going to be the biggest win ever or its the biggest bust ever. I have never seen it so alone with a solution so consistently even 54 hours out .

6z Euro AI QPF map steady as she be… .

Like the RGEM total crush job for PA on the 0z GEM .

0z RGEM is a PA smoke show .

Another view of the 18z Euro AI QPF. Definitely another jump up .

Measured just about an inch here in Lebanon. Was snowing moderately for a bit before but has left up. Roads caved as sun is setting .

18z NAM while still a miss, in my opinion, took a step in the right direction and now shows something. Baby steps .

12z JMA jumped its QPF for sunday area-wide as well .

1/2” of snow here in Lebanon. Just some flurries presently. Temp is 25° .

I dont have access to the Kuchera snowmap for the UKMET but I think someone posted it earlier .

I dont have the Euro out yet .

Some JB thoughts this morning: “But what is going on is the CANADIAN of all the operational models had the right idea that this was an arctic wave cyclogeneis where the vort max hit the tightening gradient that was coming in from the west and the low would wind up further west It has never backed off since catching on though should correct a bit further east” “But here is the lesson Until these features get into the plains you cant let models whiplash you Actually the old rule is when it passes 110 west So you gotta try to not get too crazy about runs. Its like a 5 star recruit. He can blow his knee out or transfer before he ever plays for your team. Let him get on the field” .

Pending the Euro, this is becoming the world vs the NAM this morning .

GFS says game on RGEM .

This is only 10:1 snowmap but ICON was much better at 12z versus 6z .

Closer look at 12z RGEM kuchera. Crush job .

The 12z NAM is quite amazing. I mean nada. Either its scoring the biggest coup here or its totally lost .