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AccuChris

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  1. AccuChris
    Eric Horst was a fabulous non-biased forecaster and a great mentor to me at Millersville when I was a met major .
  2. AccuChris
    Thats how you get 20:1 ratios and get a foot of snow with half the QPF .
  3. AccuChris
    Nice improvement from the ICON…below is 0z and now 12z 10:1 snowmap .
  4. AccuChris
    It appears the GFS is doing what it does best and is stringing out the energy and handing too much off to the east too fast. Though, it does have the main low farther west over the weekend and puts more QPF/snow farther north and west. Plenty of time to watch. Key is how fast does the SW energy eject out and can phase with the northern branch so it can attack the cold high .
  5. AccuChris
    12z Euro AI 10:1 snowmap through the entire run/period is absurd lol .
  6. AccuChris
    12z CMC shows two big hitters. The second one at the end of the run looks like the “classic” Miller A .
  7. AccuChris
    To your point, below are the GFS, Euro, Canadian Ensemble snowfall through the period, and the AI Euro Ensemble snow and the total QPF for the AI GEFS (no snowmap available for this product). All very much in line for much below normal temp and plenty of QPF/snow .
  8. AccuChris
    1.75” of new snow this morning in Lebanon. Puts us at 4.75” for the weekend and 11.75” on the season so far .
  9. AccuChris
    Latest HRRR looks good for early morning tomorrow .
  10. AccuChris
    Latest HRRR looks pretty west overnight for round 2 .
  11. AccuChris
    Just measured 3” in Lebanon. Just some light snow continues. Nice little event here! .
  12. AccuChris
    Just measured 2.5” here in Lebanon. Moderate snow continues .
  13. AccuChris
    Definitely shows more on the ridge-tops versus valleys. Seems a generally 1-3” looks best with higher elevation lollipops of 4-5” possible .
  14. AccuChris
    Latest long range HRRR for tonight/tomorrow .
  15. AccuChris
    12z NAM even more slightly juiced for tonight-tomorrow .
  16. AccuChris
    12z HRRR kuchera snowmap for tomorrow .
  17. AccuChris
    So far, 12z models are pretty “blah” for both Saturdays light event and Sundays system appears to slide to the south and east fairly flat. I hate kicking the can down the road as before you know it, its already March, but we may need to wait until later next week to get the southern branch more involved as the cold presses more .
  18. AccuChris
    0z NAM suite shows friday night-saturday snow shield alive and well .
  19. AccuChris
    12z GFS full cycle kuchera snowmap .
  20. AccuChris
    Here is the latest AFD from Mt Holly NWS for perspective…talk about making changes on the fly. Bottom line…the NAM suite handled the warm nose intrusion so far north and east best. Typically, models under estimate mid-level warming but are too quick to warm the surface. Keep the NAM scorecard in your back pocket for future systems this winter, especially when it comes to p-type issues, it usually does well, even if an outlier .
  21. AccuChris
    Just had thunder/lightning in heavy sleet right now in Lebanon .
  22. AccuChris
    This grill is my work horse year-round! Love it! .
  23. AccuChris
    Ongoing mix of sleet and freezing rain in Lebanon. Temp down to 28 .
  24. AccuChris
    Sleet has commenced here in Lebanon. Temp is 29 but DP is 12 so wetbulbing will definitely drop the temp some .
  25. AccuChris
    Too soon to tell. This is one run of one model but will need to see what the rest of the 0z suite shows .
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