AccuChris

RGEM goes boom again .

12z RGEM locked and loaded .

12z Icon definitely an improvement compared to its 6z run .

12z 3km NAM better. Actually starts this Sunday morning on the arctic boundary and looks like what the 12z HRRR was indicating earlier. I suspect this will continue to get in line in subsequent runs .

I cannot figure out the NAM this week. Typically, it is one of the more “over-amped” models and over does systems. For whatever reason, it cannot find this storm. Either its going to be the biggest win ever or its the biggest bust ever. I have never seen it so alone with a solution so consistently even 54 hours out .

6z Euro AI QPF map steady as she be… .

Like the RGEM total crush job for PA on the 0z GEM .

0z RGEM is a PA smoke show .

Another view of the 18z Euro AI QPF. Definitely another jump up .

Measured just about an inch here in Lebanon. Was snowing moderately for a bit before but has left up. Roads caved as sun is setting .

18z NAM while still a miss, in my opinion, took a step in the right direction and now shows something. Baby steps .

12z JMA jumped its QPF for sunday area-wide as well .

1/2” of snow here in Lebanon. Just some flurries presently. Temp is 25° .

I dont have access to the Kuchera snowmap for the UKMET but I think someone posted it earlier .

I dont have the Euro out yet .

Some JB thoughts this morning: “But what is going on is the CANADIAN of all the operational models had the right idea that this was an arctic wave cyclogeneis where the vort max hit the tightening gradient that was coming in from the west and the low would wind up further west It has never backed off since catching on though should correct a bit further east” “But here is the lesson Until these features get into the plains you cant let models whiplash you Actually the old rule is when it passes 110 west So you gotta try to not get too crazy about runs. Its like a 5 star recruit. He can blow his knee out or transfer before he ever plays for your team. Let him get on the field” .

Pending the Euro, this is becoming the world vs the NAM this morning .

GFS says game on RGEM .

This is only 10:1 snowmap but ICON was much better at 12z versus 6z .

Closer look at 12z RGEM kuchera. Crush job .

The 12z NAM is quite amazing. I mean nada. Either its scoring the biggest coup here or its totally lost .

Id throw a couple bucks on the NAM doing an over/under of snow Sunday night lol .

Without any scientific reasoning behind it, I am going to hedge my bets that modeling continues to move towards more action for Sunday. The 6z Euro AI model was more juiced up compared to its 0z run and even the “non-event” models made small moves towards more amplification. The Canadian products have been rock solid consistent so we will see. I think DraftKings should start doing spreads and money lines on weather model outputs run to run lol .

I feel like he has been quite subdued this season so far. Hasnt gotten riled up like he normally does lol .

Yes, south into central Virginia and Delmarva on Icon .