AccuChris
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Everything posted by AccuChris
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Id throw a couple bucks on the NAM doing an over/under of snow Sunday night lol .
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Without any scientific reasoning behind it, I am going to hedge my bets that modeling continues to move towards more action for Sunday. The 6z Euro AI model was more juiced up compared to its 0z run and even the “non-event” models made small moves towards more amplification. The Canadian products have been rock solid consistent so we will see. I think DraftKings should start doing spreads and money lines on weather model outputs run to run lol .
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I feel like he has been quite subdued this season so far. Hasnt gotten riled up like he normally does lol .
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Yes, south into central Virginia and Delmarva on Icon .
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18z RGEM looks promising but no surprise since the GEM has been the most bullish .
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Absolutely. I would not write off the Sunday system until at least the 0z Saturday runs that come in Friday night. .
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12z Euro was very “meh” in terms of snowfall. Sundays event is southeast like the UKMET was, and offers no other precip chances through the rest of the run….just cold and then moderation late in the period .
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12z NAM still trying to show some LSV snow love .
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I was surprised the afternoon AFD from CTP didnt mention anything about the possible snow scenario for later Sunday. They mention western snow showers and upslope but nada with regards to a wave of low pressure for eastern zones .
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12z UKMET shows light snow event Sunday as well .
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12z Euro definitely focusing on Sunday and next Thursday events. Will see if GFS jumps back on the Sunday train in future runs .
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12z GFS so far for the weekend and next week was a swing and a miss for all systems in our area to produce snow. Going to be model mayhem for several more days for sure .
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18z GFS says screw you if you live here lol .
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Regardless of snow chances, all models show some impressive cold potential the next two weeks. Any snowfall would only enhance the deep freeze. No January thaw on the horizon yet .
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Exactly 1” of snow here in Lebanon .
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18z GFS kuchera snow map for the weekend event .
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12z GFS snowfall for Saturday .
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Something was wonky with the 12z NAM. Texas had basically no winter weather on its run and is completely opposite of the 12z RGEM and its prior runs. .
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0z NAM at hour 84…looks amped heading northeast .
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We are due for a shut down storm with drifts over the mailbox like yester-year .
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18z GFS hanging on to the big storm idea Saturday it seems .
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Ironically, we may not want the whole piece to come out quickly as one lobe as it could phase too fast and try and cut inland. Now there is definitely blocking which helps but there is no doubt there will be a juiced up southern branch and energy diving in from Canada. Not more we can ask for at this point…other than a chance .
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It likely doesnt come up at all and will be a southern slider wave. Need that southern shortwave to come out in full or at least a big enough piece to let the northern branch dive into it and take on a negative tilt. Bottom line is the players are there and the GFS has shown what COULD happen if it does phase. Who knows if it will or wont…yet .
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18z ICON close to a phase for the weekend as well .
