BuffaloWeather

@lakeeffectkid383

...A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN WYOMING... CENTRAL ERIE...NORTHEASTERN CHAUTAUQUA AND WESTERN GENESEE COUNTIES... At 1034 PM EST, A band of lake effect snow producing snow fall rates of one to two inches per hour is located from near Silver Creek to Elma Center to Batavia on the southern edge, and from near Lackawanna to Lancaster to Pembroke on the northern edge. This band of snow will remain nearly stationary late this evening. A rumble of thunder is also possible within the most intense portion of the band of snow.

It does look very similar, but way weaker. The band isn't close to that strength.

If this locks in all night, we will have a few feet by tomorrow morning.

3" new here on the nose, 9" depth.

If you check this radar it shows a more westerly direction coming in from the NW, but the winds in WNY will remain WSW. The convergence is going to be anywhere from south buffalo to Eden overnight. I do think the band will slowly intensify overnight as more moisture is added in and shear eases. https://weather.gc.ca/radar/index_e.html?id=WKR

KBUF thinks its going to go north and then back south. I don't see it going north until the morning. I think you guys are right and KBUF has fallen off quite abit. I think if anything it drifts a little bit south.

I think it has a large impact. NW flow events are your guys bread and butter. To get those events you need consistent cold air that has been so hard to find the last few years.

Devin went chasing said 4-5" in west seneca/Op area. About 2-3" so far of new snow here.

...A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL AFFECT NORTHERN WYOMING... NORTHWESTERN CATTARAUGUS...ERIE...NORTHEASTERN CHAUTAUQUA AND GENESEE COUNTIES... At 928 PM EST, A band of lake effect snow producing snow fall rates around one inch per hour is located from near Silver Creek to East Aurora to Attica on the southern edge, and from near Cheektowaga to Akron to Elba on the northern edge. This band of snow will slowly move into the Northtowns before moving back towards the Southtowns late this evening.

Heaviest stuff is north of me. West seneca/Orchard Park/Blasdell.

The unknown variance in winter is global warming.

Tomorrow it will.

@Thinksnow18 Highest rates at northern edge of band.

My wife took this video and forgot to make it horizontal...But check out these rates!!!!

A little bit sheared, but that thing is ripping. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?parms=BUF-N0Q-0-24-100-usa-rad

This has to be 3” per holy ****

I know my lake effect

2” per rates

Heavy snow Jeb walk time

Light snow has started here. Band moving quickly north and expanding.

As a result, there`s still quite a bit of uncertainty to both the start time and placement of lake effect snow. With concerns noted above, the watch will stand for now until there`s more confidence in timing and placement along with corresponding snow amounts.

The thing is with watches. Northern Erie county is quite a distance. West Seneca is included in Northern Erie county and so is Tonawanda. They don't issue watches by city or town. West Seneca is going to get hit tonight, Tonawanda isn't. Its the same with southern Erie County. Orchard Park/Hamburg are considered Southern Erie county. You know how many times lake snow warnings are in effect for my area and I get nothing, about 70% of the time. It's not KBUFS fault, it's just how they generalize forecasting. Ideally they should seperate Erie county into 4 sections. Northtowns/City/Southtowns/Hills to the SE.

That band is consolidating into a pretty thick band. Going to run from the city all the way to Eden.

Tom Niziol on Facebook: Snowband is pasting southern Erie county now as well as Wyoming county. I am guessing snowfa;l rates of 2+ inches per hour. Send reports !! I am thinking it still mobves right to the edge of Buffalo as the night progresses then meanders south and north once again tomorrow before heading to the Southern Tier later Saturday night.