BuffaloWeather

...A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL AFFECT NORTHERN WYOMING... NORTHWESTERN CATTARAUGUS...ERIE...NORTHEASTERN CHAUTAUQUA AND GENESEE COUNTIES... At 928 PM EST, A band of lake effect snow producing snow fall rates around one inch per hour is located from near Silver Creek to East Aurora to Attica on the southern edge, and from near Cheektowaga to Akron to Elba on the northern edge. This band of snow will slowly move into the Northtowns before moving back towards the Southtowns late this evening.

Heaviest stuff is north of me. West seneca/Orchard Park/Blasdell.

The unknown variance in winter is global warming.

Tomorrow it will.

@Thinksnow18 Highest rates at northern edge of band.

My wife took this video and forgot to make it horizontal...But check out these rates!!!!

A little bit sheared, but that thing is ripping. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?parms=BUF-N0Q-0-24-100-usa-rad

This has to be 3” per holy ****

I know my lake effect

2” per rates

Heavy snow Jeb walk time

Light snow has started here. Band moving quickly north and expanding.

As a result, there`s still quite a bit of uncertainty to both the start time and placement of lake effect snow. With concerns noted above, the watch will stand for now until there`s more confidence in timing and placement along with corresponding snow amounts.

The thing is with watches. Northern Erie county is quite a distance. West Seneca is included in Northern Erie county and so is Tonawanda. They don't issue watches by city or town. West Seneca is going to get hit tonight, Tonawanda isn't. Its the same with southern Erie County. Orchard Park/Hamburg are considered Southern Erie county. You know how many times lake snow warnings are in effect for my area and I get nothing, about 70% of the time. It's not KBUFS fault, it's just how they generalize forecasting. Ideally they should seperate Erie county into 4 sections. Northtowns/City/Southtowns/Hills to the SE.

That band is consolidating into a pretty thick band. Going to run from the city all the way to Eden.

Tom Niziol on Facebook: Snowband is pasting southern Erie county now as well as Wyoming county. I am guessing snowfa;l rates of 2+ inches per hour. Send reports !! I am thinking it still mobves right to the edge of Buffalo as the night progresses then meanders south and north once again tomorrow before heading to the Southern Tier later Saturday night.

Here is from a few days ago. Seems like they were not sure as multiple models had different wind directions. Euro never went SW only W/WSW. Kind of states that in the discussion.

Yeah go ahead. Band wasn't supposed to be over Buffalo until tomorrow, not tonight.

Band is lifting north as we speak, a few miles from my house now. The only part that surprises me is how sheared it looks due to high winds.

Where? This is the forecast discussion from this afternoon. No mention of SW winds. SW winds haven't showed up in models in 3 days. Erie Northwest flow this morning will back to the west by midday, allowing multiple bands to develop from northeast Ohio into the western Southern Tier of NY, with some upslope enhancement along the Chautauqua Ridge. This will remain the mode of lake effect through mid to late afternoon. By early this evening boundary layer flow will be backing to the WSW, which will allow for a single band to consolidate along the Lake Erie shore of Chautauqua County into southern Erie County. This band will then move north towards the Buffalo southtowns and southwest Genesee County by late evening as boundary layer flow continues to back to the southwest. Some high- res guidance suggests a brief southward drift back into southern Erie, western Wyoming, and Chautauqua counties after midnight before the band moves back north to Buffalo again by Saturday morning. The band will reach its northern-most point late morning to early afternoon Saturday into the city of Buffalo and even the nearby northern suburbs before starting to drift back south across the southtowns late in the afternoon. Lowering inversion heights, decreasing moisture, and increasing shear will allow the band to weaken during the afternoon. Snowfall rates will occasionally reach 2 inches per hour in this band of lake effect snow from this evening through midday Saturday. Total accumulations of 15-20 inches are still likely where the band persists the longest from western Chautauqua County, the northwest corner of Cattaraugus County, into southern and central Erie County including South Buffalo and the densely populated nearby southtowns. 6-12 inches are possible from downtown to the airport and the nearby northtowns if the band makes it that far north Saturday, with a very sharp drop off in accumulations heading northward through the northtowns.

Heavy snow in colden. Band should start moving slowly north next few hours into the overnight. Wasn’t predicted to be near Buffalo until around noon tomorrow. Not sure what you guys expected. Whatever it was, it wasn’t modeled. Just hope the models were wrong.

Models have been putting over 3' of snow over the tug last few runs. I think north redfield sees 40"

Should dissipate and the one south of that should take over as the primary band going forward.

Here she comes

Don paul commented too Even within the super fine tuning it becomes a very close call for North Buffalo versus South Buffalo, or even a brush with Kenmore and a part of Tonawanda. One run of the 3 km NAM even had it briefly brushing at least the southern part of Amherst for a few hours late Saturday morning. Oh well, at least the synoptic part of the storm worked out very well for the 8 WNY counties.