Hrrr is worst model for lake effect IMO. It had buffalo getting 8” as the event was happening. They got nothing lol. Take the rgem and slash qpf by 25-30%
The GEFS is pretty far south too. I highly favor suppression over amped. In 2 weeks I favor amped though, think we get into a more cutter pattern again.
Gets put into the shredder as it heads east. The farther west you are the better I think with this storm. The NE forum was praying for -NAO for years and years and they finally get it and its blocked every storm the last 6 weeks there. Blocking isn't the end all be all with winter storms. A lot needs to come together for it to work.
Wow look at all those 30" totals, really good storm, winner was springville with nearly 3 feet
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&product=PNS&issuedby=BUF