BuffaloWeather

Since we haven't had 3 below normal snowfall years in a row since the 1980s, I have to go with the law of averages and say above normal snowfall and around normal temps. First Snowfall: Nov. 7th First Freeze: Oct. 29th

I'm going with this guy. September looks like it is moving toward my tentative blend for winter. This is the idea for snow from the analogs. It's a decent match for ENSO strength, ENSO order, solar, the AMO and PDO, with high a lot of Gulf Coast hurricane hits, and a -QBO look too. Generally the look is more optimistic for snow in California, the mid-South and some Great Lake snow belts, but a bit less optimistic for the Northeast compared to last year. The way we get these totals by timing is also very different from 2020-21. I suspect that's true for temps too. In the West, I'm trying to balance 1974-75 and 2017-18, one very wet, one very dry, one hyper active in the Atlantic, one hyper quiet, both weak La Nina years with similar precip/temp patterns in Summer.

I will say we 100% want a weaker PV vs a stronger one. But a weak/strong PV means nothing unless you have a mechanism to get that cold air to our area. That is dictated by the Pacific Ocean and on some occasions atlantic blocking

I'm not sure I agree. If we have a bad pacific it doesn't matter how weak the PV is. There is no mechanism to get the cold air here. Our winters are warming exponentially. A warm pacific ocean buckles the jet stream in favor of a warm east. Give me a negative EPO all day over anything else the arctic does. Don Paul has always had an obsession of Cohen with his Siberian ice cover and SSW hypothesis. The mets over on the New England forum have dismantled both of these ideas.

Buffalo is such a fun place to be when both teams are doing well. They havent been good at the same time since the early 90s.

That guy has zero say in anything. Still no chance .

Buf at +1.8 for Sep so far, early next week looks like mid summer weather.

Will never happen.

You're right I didn't read the bottom. This trend continued until about noon Sunday...with the band oriented on a 240 axis across the northern half of the Buffalo metro area. It remained stationary until about 4 pm...then...finally...the flow veered with the passage of the trof to a 270 vector by 8pm. This could be because of the Great Lakes thermal trough being stronger than the models indicated (because its early in the season) as coldest air worked "under" the Lakes rather than across them...forcing the flow more southwesterly at this end of the Lake than the models indicated. Long time Buffalo forecasters have suspected as much with early season Lake effects and subtract about 20 degrees from the forecasted winds...as the models don't pick up the warmth of the Lakes. This effect is not as noticeable on Lake Ontario but still occurs.

I don't believe this event was due to the warm lake, there was a trough crossing that caused the band to move north.

84 degrees at KBUF today.

Hyperbole. In the grand scheme of things virtual RNS are extremely rare positions. I've never even heard of one and am friends with like 50 nurses. If they leave for virtual RN positions the competition would be quite fierce and a limited supply. Every girl I know in their 20s are going to school for nursing, I don't think there will be a shortage.

It still represents like 0.05% of RN jobs.

Tough to find a remote RN job, and its asking a lot to move out of state but I'm sure many will and UI is only a fraction of income that RNS make. Especially with OT and shift differential.

They will burn through their Savings/401ks and come crawling back to work. They need money to pay their bills.

I did not know you lived there. You've lived all over, how do you move so much? Someone in the military? Did you get hit with any West wind LES bands there? They must average 200"+ in that spot.

Tickets to Sabres games are going to be like $5. Vaccine required and they suck.

A guy at the game coughed on me when I was waiting in line to get into game and last night I felt like I was getting a fever and freaking out. Luckily i feel better today but was getting nervous. Tickets will likely drop in price for the next few games. I bet 30-40% at the game are unvaccinated. I wore my masks from the ticket booth to the stands. I'd say about 10% of people had masks on.

Dec 2001 had some insane piles across the area. Even more off the Tug.

Buffalo Bills and Sabres are requiring covid vaccines to attend games. A bunch of my friends are so mad lol. I'm like I'll buy at a discount.

West seneca has been the focal point of almost every major event the last 30 years. Even the Dec. 2001 event they got over 70". You get more events the farther south and southeast you go but the big dogs have a target from Buffalo to Hamburg usually. Makes sense as you get the entire fetch of the lake.

I did not know you lived in Buffalo before moving to Rochester. I grew up on the west side of Buffalo for this storm and remember jumping out the 2nd story into a giant snowpile in the front of the yard. We lived on Breckenridge road and each side had cars parked as there are no driveways so the entire road was a giant snowpile. That was the storm that set off my fascination with weather. We lived in a duplex my mom/dad on the bottom floor and my uncle/aunt above. We had so much fun making snow castles during that one. In regards to the radar, it looks like this was the first real event that it was tracked. Buffalo's new Doppler radar was available for this entire event and it worked extremely well. The low 0.5 degree elevation angle allowed us to pinpoint the location of the snowbands to the nearest mile or two around Buffalo ...an immense aid in doing Nowcasts and SPSs. The suppression of ground clutter worked perfectly. We were even able to see the edge of the Lake Ontario band as far east as Oswego and some activity near the southern edge of Georgian Bay. The BUFKIT and BUFKITE model profilers were excellent in timing of wind shifts and associated band movements ...but there was a slight problem on Lake Erie with the northward movement of the band on Sunday morning. Both models worked almost perfectly in forecasting veering winds during Saturday evening...with the NGM furthest south at about 265 ...but the NGM kept the winds at that angle for Sunday...while ETA was closer to 250. Actually, the bands moved north to a 240-245 vector for most of Sunday.

Got a feeling an event like this is coming for Buffalo this year. How many people were in Buffalo to witness this one, still holds the record for 24 hour snowfall at kbuf. At bottom of page you can see the radar for it, unreal snowfall rates. Over two feet of snow fell in about eight hours across most of the city of Buffalo and its near northern and eastern suburbs during Sunday. https://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=1995-1996&event=G

Lots of rain last night. 3 day totals are going to be up there.

It's pretty rare to go 3 years in a row with below average snowfall, so at least we have that going for us heading into winter. It hasn't happened since the 1980s. @TugHillMatt