BuffaloWeather

UK a little further south

Higher res are slightly further north

GFS and GEM going nuts, ratios will be higher in this event than the last 2 with the colder temps.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... ...Once in a Generation Winter Storm to Slam the Region Heading into and THROUGH the Christmas Weekend... Old Man Winter will unleash the full fury of winter upon our region during this period...as an extremely amplified longwave pattern will spawn one of the most intense storm systems in decades to impact the Mid West and Great Lakes region. This system will likely end up setting low pressure records once it passes north of the border and will have the potential to generate at LEAST storm force winds over the Lower Great lakes. As if the very real threat for damaging winds of 60-70 mph were not enough...there will also be the risk for a prolonged...paralyzing heavy lake effect snow event. The very strong to damaging winds, blowing and drifting snow with localized blizzard conditions preceded by a rapid flash freeze all coming right before the Christmas holiday weekend resulted in a *long duration* winter storm watch being issued for western NY. A Winter Storm Watch has also now been issued for Jefferson and Lewis county from midday Friday through Monday. While heavy lake effect snows have already occurred this winter season...this will be the first event with multiple impacts from such intense winds. Winter storm watches are already in effect for parts of western New York with the high component wrapped into the same product. An extremely amplified longwave pattern during this period will spawn one of the most intense storm systems in decades to impact the Mid West and Great Lakes region. This system will likely end up setting low pressure records once it passes north of the border and will have the potential to generate storm force winds over the Lower Great lakes. Explosive cyclogenesis will take place over the mid western states into southern Ontario on Friday...as an anomalously strong 150kt H25 jet will pass through the base of a very deep longwave trough. This will support rapid deepening of a corresponding sfc low that will track southern Ontario by late Friday. The `bombing` low will deepen from roughly 990mb in the vcnty of Lake Erie/Lower Michigan late Thursday night...to 982mb over southernmost Ontario Friday morning to about 968mb near the Ontario-Quebec border by Friday evening... easily meeting the definition of bombogenesis (24mb/24hrs). Such deepening is relatively rare in the LOWER Great lakes...but more common across the UPPER Great Lakes and certainly with Nor`easters along the coast. Some of the parameters of this intense storm are climatologically `off the charts`...such as MSLP and strength of both the low level and upper level jets. One could certainly describe this storm system as a once in a generation type of event. Subtle differences remain...but there remains general model agreement in the overall large scale scenario...which adds confidence. The rapidly intensifying low is forecast to pass just to our west on Friday. Winds will ramp up in the cold air advection and during when max pressure rise/fall couplet crosses. This is about as good as it gets in terms of maximizing winds/gusts to the sfc. Several guidance packages are now advertising wind gusts over the IAG Frontier to near 60 mph late in the day as another intense 70kt LLJ enters the region. This is NOT when the strongest winds are expected though. That is yet to come. In regards to pcpn on Friday...the strong winds will open the door for MUCH colder air to pour across our forecast area. This will result in a RAPID change over of the rain to snow with deep frontogenetic forcing leading to a burst of moderately heavy snow that will yield accumulations of several inches expected by late afternoon. Temperatures that will start the day in the low to mid 40s in most areas will PLUMMET into the single digits across the Srn Tier by the end of the day...while readings will range from the teens across the remainder of wrn NY to the lower 30s east of Lake Ontario. This dramatic plunge in temperatures will likely result in a flash freeze of the snow/water/slush. As the extremely deep storm system further deepens in place over the Ontario-Quebec border Friday night...a strong secondary cold front/sfc trough will plow across our forecast area. This will be accompanied by the second 70kt low level jet that...being found in the cold sector...should largely mix to the sfc at times. The threat for high winds at the sfc will be greatest in the typical corridor from Lake Erie and the IAG Frontier to Rochester and then to the Thousand Island region. Increased winds some in these corridors. Power outages will be a concern as will be blowing snow and drifting snow. The widespread synoptic snow during the first half of Friday night should then taper off as the deepest forcing exits and limited drying arrives in the mid levels. Meanwhile...a 230-240 flow of -20c H85 air will promote an area of lake snow to become established Buffalo northward...across IAG and the Northtowns. The snow... whether it be synoptic or lake induced in nature...will be blown around by +50 mph winds so significant blowing and drifting can be anticipated along with near zero visibility and at least localized blizzard conditions. As is typically the case...the very strong southwest flow will also shove a great deal of water up to the Buffalo end of Lk Erie...so lakeshore flooding will be a possibility. More specifics on that in the lakeshore flooding discussion. A very tight sfc pressure gradient will remain in place across our forecast area on the day before Christmas...so while the winds should diminish as bit by way of a weaker LLJ especially later in the day, they will still be strong enough to possibly cause issues and certainly to support continued blowing snow. Models have trended a bit quicker with veering of winds, to more of 240-250 flow so that more of the Buffalo Metro would be impacted by lake snows Saturday into Saturday night with the visibility remaining near zero at times within the band. It will be quite cold with Saturdays highs ranging from the single digits over the Srn Tier to the teens and low 20s elsewhere resulting wind chills falling to as low as 10 to 20 degrees below zero.

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING... * WHAT...A rapid switch from rain to snow with sharply falling temperatures into the teens and single digits will result in a flash freeze on Friday. From Friday afternoon through most of the weekend, very strong winds, heavy lake effect snow and significant blowing and drifting snow will be possible. Winds could gust as high as 65 mph Friday into Friday night. Localized blizzard conditions are possible. * WHERE...Niagara, Orleans, Erie, Genesee, Wyoming, Chautauqua, and Cattaraugus counties. * WHEN...From Friday morning through Monday morning. * IMPACTS...Travel for the holiday weekend, including Friday, could be very difficult to impossible at times. Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility with whiteouts and localized blizzard conditions possible. The most persistent and worst conditions will be where lake effect snow is most widespread, which is still uncertain at this time. Winds this strong could cause tree damage and power outages. Cold wind chills as low as 10 to 20 below zero this weekend could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 30 minutes.

Buf NWS calling this a once in a generation type event. Feet of snow, 70+ mph wind gusts, with whiteout conditions.

I'm in the Northeast and have over 100" already.

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING... * WHAT...A rapid switch from rain to snow with sharply falling temperatures into the teens will result in a flash freeze on Friday. From Friday afternoon through most of the weekend, very strong winds, heavy lake effect snow and significant blowing and drifting snow will be possible. Winds could gust as high as 65 mph Friday into Friday night. Localized blizzard conditions are possible. * WHERE...Niagara, Orleans, Erie, Genesee, Wyoming, Chautauqua, and Cattaraugus counties. * WHEN...From Friday morning through Monday morning. * IMPACTS...Travel for the holiday weekend, including Friday, could be very difficult to impossible at times. Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility with whiteouts and localized blizzard conditions possible. The most persistent and worst conditions will be where lake effect snow is most widespread, which is still uncertain at this time. Winds this strong could cause tree damage and power outages. Cold wind chills as low as 10 to 20 below zero this weekend could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 30 minutes.

Always love reading your winter outlooks. Most detailed one out there.

Have never seen anything like what Buf NWS has in their forecast discussion

Never seen anything like it. I might be at 150" before the new year lol.

I've been reading Buffalo Forecast discussions for over 20 years and have never seen one like the one issued this morning. Paralyzing lake effect, climatologically off the charts, bombogenesis, once in generation type event.

Come chase this one

Discord

Talk about some crazy noon runs. 150" before the new year?

HWO from Buf. A significant winter storm appears likely to develop and track northeastward across the eastern third of the country Thursday and Friday. Chances are increasing that this system will bring a warmup and widespread rain Thursday and Thursday night...followed by sharply colder conditions and a flash freeze on Friday along with a changeover back to snow. Strong winds will also be possible Friday night and Saturday...with potentially significant lake effect snow also likely developing Saturday and continuing through Christmas Day. Potentially significant lake effect snow and strong winds is expected Friday night and Saturday. The strong winds could also bring lakeshore flooding concerns to areas along the Lake Erie shoreline.

Obviously we just had a big event and not one post here. Everyone is on the discord now, if anyone wants an invite to it PM me on here.

Few vids from the storm Another from the Adirondack storm

https://kamala.cod.edu/ny/latest.nous41.KBUF.html ..Erie County... 4 NW Eden 22.2 in 0230 PM 12/18 42.69N/78.97W 2 NNW Hamburg 21.3 in 0200 PM 12/18 42.75N/78.85W West Seneca 2.5 SE 19.5 in 0415 AM 12/18 42.81N/78.71W/777 Hamburg 2.0 N 18.5 in 0800 AM 12/18 42.75N/78.83W/730 2 SSE Lancaster 18.0 in 1115 AM 12/18 42.87N/78.65W/694 3 SSW Sloan 17.4 in 0200 PM 12/18 42.86N/78.82W Lake View 1NE 16.7 in 0815 AM 12/18 42.73N/78.92W/647 Lancaster 16.5 in 0600 AM 12/18 42.90N/78.67W/664 Lancaster 0.3 S 16.5 in 0600 AM 12/18 42.90N/78.67W 2 SE Sloan 16.0 in 0830 AM 12/18 42.87N/78.76W 2 WNW East Aurora 15.5 in 0900 AM 12/18 42.77N/78.66W/961 2 NNW Elma Center 15.5 in 0840 AM 12/18 42.85N/78.64W Orchard Park 15.0 in 0645 AM 12/18 42.76N/78.74W/859 Hamburg 0.4 WSW 14.5 in 0700 AM 12/18 42.72N/78.84W/791 Hamburg 14.2 in 0845 AM 12/18 42.72N/78.83W Lancaster 14.0 in 0100 PM 12/18 42.90N/78.67W West Seneca 2.5 SE 14.0 in 0415 AM 12/18 42.81N/78.71W/777 Lancaster 13.3 in 0600 AM 12/18 42.90N/78.67W/664 Lancaster 0.3 S 13.3 in 0600 AM 12/18 42.90N/78.67W East Aurora 0.1 ENE 12.4 in 0700 AM 12/18 42.77N/78.62W/918 Elma 2.7 WSW 12.4 in 0700 AM 12/18 42.81N/78.68W/835 N Buffalo Airport 11.8 in 0700 AM 12/18 42.94N/78.72W/701 West Falls 11.8 in 0100 PM 12/18 42.70N/78.68W East Aurora 2.7 SSE 11.5 in 0845 AM 12/18 42.73N/78.61W/1085 2 N Buffalo 11.1 in 1140 PM 12/17 42.92N/78.86W Cheektowaga 2.7 NE 11.0 in 0700 AM 12/18 42.94N/78.72W/702 Clarence 10.8 in 0845 AM 12/18 42.98N/78.58W Williamsville 3.8 E 10.8 in 0700 AM 12/18 42.96N/78.67W/712 Angola 10.6 in 0800 AM 12/18 42.65N/79.03W 4 NW Eden 10.4 in 0730 AM 12/18 42.69N/78.97W 1 SSE Harris Hill 10.3 in 1225 AM 12/18 42.96N/78.67W/724 1 NW Williamsville 10.1 in 0900 AM 12/18 42.97N/78.75W N Buffalo Airport 10.0 in 1054 PM 12/17 42.94N/78.72W/701 3 NE Boston 9.7 in 0100 PM 12/18 42.66N/78.70W/1589

Picked up 21.3" with the last LES event, brings me over 100" on the year already. Looks to be another one coming next weekend with the potential for very high winds accompanying the bands.

This ones gonna be massive, has historic potential. Good luck to you guys out west!

I'll be there for it if it happens!

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... ...Significant lake effect snow becoming more likely this weekend off both Lake Erie and Lake Ontario... Confidence is continuing to grow that there will be a round of significant lake effect snow off both Lake Erie and Lake Ontario this weekend. The more impactful snowfall will likely be focused from the Buffalo southtowns into the western Southern Tier and across the Tug Hill region. Still a little bit earlier, but the current thinking would place the city of Buffalo and the city of Watertown OUT of the axis of the more SIGNIFICANT snowfall. Deepening low pressure across eastern New England by Friday night will move up the New England coastline during the weekend. This will draw gradually colder air into the region Friday night in the wake of the occluded frontal boundary. The incoming air aloft should grow cold enough to support a lake response starting later Friday night with a band of lake effect snow expected to begin east/northeast of Lake Erie. Widespread synoptic snows associated with the coastal low will continue across north central New York. The synoptic snows across north central New York will gradually wind down Saturday, leaving the focus for the remainder of the weekend on the potential for heavy lake effect snow. The airmass coming across the lakes will continue to grow colder with time as 850 mb temperatures eventually drop down to -10C to -12C range as deep synoptic moisture remains in place. This should easily support heavy lake effect off both Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. At this forecast range, there does seem to be a general overall model support for an initial southwest flow bringing the potential for the heaviest lake snows to organized to the northeast of the lakes, including the Buffalo metro area and Watertown. However, this is most likely occur for a relatively short duration, generally in the Saturday into Saturday evening time frame. The coldest air would have yet to arrive by this time, so the intensity of the lake effect snow bands are a bit uncertain. Nonetheless, this would be the most favorable time frame for the Buffalo metro area and Watertown to receive the heaviest snowfall. Trough moving through the region Saturday night will bring the coldest air in its wake, but also veer steering winds more westerly (about 260 degrees) and send the heaviest lake snows southward and place the orientation of the heaviest lake snow off Lake Erie south of Buffalo into the Southern Tier and eventually more on the Tug Hill instead of Watertown/Fort Drum. This flow regime will likely stay in place for a more sustained period of time likely through the day on Sunday and even into Sunday night. The lake band intensity should pick up during this time with the potential for snowfall rates of greater than 2 inches per hour at times, leading to significant snowfall totals.

Lake Erie is at 43 degrees, 3 degrees above average for the date.