BuffaloWeather

Uh oh, ice storm incoming

Can't say I've ever seen the coldest air in 3-4 yrs with no snow on the ground, definitely going to be a weird day tomorrow. .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... ***Active weather pattern with chances for snow*** Lake snows will be ongoing Tuesday morning focusing east and southeast of both lakes. Winds will then back to the west and southwest by Tuesday afternoon and evening sending lake snows north off both lakes ahead of a clipper low. The clipper low will then approach the region late Tuesday night with increasing chances for for snow as we head into Wednesday. Canadian-NH and GFS in general agreement that a clipper low will track near the N. shore of Lake Ontario into the North Country on Wednesday. Although, the 00Z/14 ECMWF tracks is a bit further north into Canada with less widespread precip for our area. Have gone with a blend of models at this point due to the uncertainty of the track of the clipper. Still think there could be several inches of snow with this clipper system. With its passage, a much colder air mass will filter into the eastern Great Lakes with 850 hpa plunging down to -20C/-23C by Thursday morning. Thursday, a cold northwest flow (wind chill values in the single digits to below zero) will be felt with lake snows focusing east and southeast of both lakes again. The air mass looks dry but there still could be some light accumulations in the most persistent snows, especially with any upstream connections coming into play. Thursday night, lake snows will all but wrap up with just some flurries east and southeast of the both lakes. Friday, looks mainly dry but continued cold with highs in the teens to low 20s.

Looks good

Yeah that was a decent one, just not in the class of the others. It just hit at perfect time.

If you can guarantee me a bills victory I’ll allow this storm to scoot 100 miles southeast for you.

One of the coolest hikes I’ve done, mt Rainer in the distance

I think mt rainier had close to 1000” one year.

I’ll believe it when I see it snowing here with a good radar presentation. It’s just a very rare track.

I’m not going to pull up all the failed forecast my friend you definitely do. There are 50 posts of “I can see 4-8” of les fluff 1:30 ratios, I’ve seen it before.” Check ROc totals the next day 1.2”, and that’s with rocs slanted stick measuring techniques.

I was wrong about this storm though. It’s a 1/100 type track. Still won’t believe it until I see it.

Tim says every event is going to over perform and hits on like 5%(generous) of them. I don’t blame him though, we need more weenies in upstate.

If this happened we might lose @TugHillMatt

Dress really really warm. The hammer lot is a good place to tailgate and you can get in and out relatively easy the last few games but might be an issue this time around. I usually park at a friends house and walk over. There are a few restaurants within walking distance to go to if you want to warm up/pregame. Oneils, Prohibition, Dannys, Big tree inn are all good spots. If you're at lot 1 dannys would be the closest place.

Not enough cold air in PA for snow? That would be quite the ice/sleet storm

That's not IP over WNY, maybe around Syracuse.

Another big hit for wny it’s further west then the gfs is.

I hope you post during severe weather season in summer too, your knowledge is awesome!

Way east, gives me flurries here.

Go look at bottom of upstate at the title from Feb 2021 of "back to back synoptic snowstorms". The big one went 150 miles NW in the last 24 hours. We all had WSW in effect for 1-2' and I think I got 2" lol