BuffaloWeather

Our attention then turns to a potential significant synoptic system. The 12Z GFS/Canadian/ECMWF continue to be in very good agreement overall with the longwave pattern evolution and synoptic scale details. The deterministic runs continue to show a low track further west than climatology, however the 12Z GFS/ECMWF have trended a LITTLE further east, which is to be expected this far out. Nonetheless, things remain on track for a possible significant event across our region. East coast systems typically track along the coast and close to the coastal front, but in this case the strong synoptic scale dynamics may overcome that trend and force the low track farther west and well inland across the Mid Atlantic and PA. One big reason for this can be blamed on a large surface high that will precede the storm...with the high moving off the New England coast and blocking a more typical storm track up the coast. Nor`easters usually run up the coast ahead of the Canadian high...but the timing is such that the surface high may force the storm system inland and up the coastal plain. Storms of this nature have a history of generating widespread snow throughout all of western and north central New York. The upper level energy that will force this system is currently over the Pacific Northwest. This will allow it to be better sampled by the radiosonde network and aircraft soundings from this point forward, which should continue to promote converging model solutions and increasing forecast confidence over the next day or two. Increased the PoPs to categorical for later Sunday night through Monday given the continued overall run to run agreement within the model suites. If the models continue to support this solution, confidence will continue to increase for a widespread, impactful snow event late Sunday night through Monday. Following this system, expect some wrap around snow showers and at least some limited lake effect east/southeast of the lakes Monday night.

Watch this end up in Toronto like feb 2021

Those colors over wny is just crazy.

Someone in this storm is going to have a massive dry slot, where that ends up is anyone’s guess.

If the bills win Saturday night this thing could give me exhaust and I’d be on cloud 9.

Oh I completely agree but that’s what the qpf is showing so the kuchera map ratios are not unrealistic

I mean it drops 1.9-2.1 qpf at 1-10 that’s 19-21”. Ratios are likely 1:15 in this event?

Whatever the case, I have a holiday Monday and I will be in where ever that band sets up soaking up those rates. I'm canceling my hiking trip. I don't want to be up in the ADK hiking during an event like this. I'd end up on the news as a missing person report. lol

Those Euro Kuch maps have to be insane. 25-35"?

Only because you got transitioned zone in the last LES event I'll allow it. I actually expect the max QPF to be Rochester-Bing-Syr line.

Check the hour time frames, the GFS timing is slightly different.

I've never seen a synoptic storm drop 2" of QPF across WNY. This would be a first.

Looks even better than 0Z run for WNY with increased QPF. Can only go down from the 12z runs, still expect a slight correction SE but the convective element of the NW band makes me think this really does come further NW than I originally thought. Storms always chase convection.

The memes in mid atlantic thread are so good. We gotta step up our game.

That day 5 finale wow

Just catching up and thought this was cool from KBUF, have to go look up those storms now Storms of this nature have a history of generating widespread snow throughout all of western and north central New York. Similar sfc patterns occurred with the following storms: 2/13/93, 12/29/97, 1/12/96, 2/23/98, 12/11/92 and 2/12/85.

Its going to be similar to lake effect snow bands. I still think that band sets up across CNY. GEFS are too far SE for it to come this far to the NW. We've been seeing subtle shifts the last few runs. It all depends on what side of the apps it tracks. If it goes East I expect it to go further SE then modeled, if it goes west than I expect it to go further NW than modeled.

Models have been pretty consistent in showing banding across the NW flanks of the storm. Whoever ends up in that band of death @Syrmax is going to experience some incredible synoptic snowfall rates.

Whoever is in that deform band to NW of the storm will be happy. Just clobbers WNY, still believe that band ends up across Central NY. It drops 1-1.75" of QPF for all of Upstate.

Yep, I have a few friends that escaped that area for Buffalo and never looked back. They hated it there. Good place for snow though.