BuffaloWeather
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Its because both storms busted within 1-2 days out. We had all models showing huge totals for 2 straight events and both busted. I want to say they went 100 miles further NW than modeled at last second? -
I remember
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Cpc released their temp outlook I think yesterday. We got a month of below normal temps during peak cold climo.
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GEFS
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GEFS, lots of big hitters. Mean came west again.
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What causes this to go straight north is that high pressure that gets tucked to the east and forces it north. Very rare evolution, but I guess that would cause it to ride the Apps. It hits a wall.
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Heads up to Binghamton
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This is the top analog right now. I'm sure we'd all take it
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1 MB stronger on GFS, might be Jamestown.
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Cips analogs http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=EC&fhr=F120&rundt=2022011200&map=thbCOOP72
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I was using reverse psychology to jackpot WNY. Either way that path shown by the GFS has only happened a handful of times in the last decade, I'll believe it when I see it. It's very rare as the system either wants to go east or west of apps. We either get a cutter or coastal 90% of the time with Miller As. Miller Bs are easier to get in Upstate.
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UK is a coastal.
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GEM followed the NW trend
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Until the Euro hops on board I think this is sliding SE of WNY, I think Central/Eastern NY do well.
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hour 138
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GEFS coming way west compared to last run.
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Yeah pretty rare. March 2008 was one, been a few others since.
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That band is crazy! That might be 3"+ per
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I'm looking at that snowfall map and looks like a 100 mile wide band of silliness instead of 25.
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The GFS did it again, storms never cross the apps like that. Tossed.
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I know how it happens I've just always wondered what the sounding thresholds are. Here is a good study on it https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/onsite/features/cat.php?day=2017-03-22
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evaporational cooling leading to snow vs rain in intense precipitation events.
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What does the disparity between temperature and dew point have to be for wet bulb effect? Is there a min/max? Does it matter where it occurs in atmosphere, obviously has to be within the cloud or underneath.
