BuffaloWeather

I hope you post during severe weather season in summer too, your knowledge is awesome!

Way east, gives me flurries here.

Go look at bottom of upstate at the title from Feb 2021 of "back to back synoptic snowstorms". The big one went 150 miles NW in the last 24 hours. We all had WSW in effect for 1-2' and I think I got 2" lol

10:1 GEM

GFS is consistent, maybe 5-10 miles SE on that run?

I think this is what you're referencing? Look at sounding and 2m temps, that is heavy snow not a mix. Just checked bottom right and says precip type sleet. I don't think I've seen sleet at 20 degrees before?

There will be a dryslot somewhere but the mixing some of these models are showing will not happen.

As someone who loves high snowfall rates over anything else in winter cannot say I'm not excited. I also have off on Monday so nothing to do but chase where ever that band sets up.

ICON

It drops .75" of QPF in 3 hours.

RGEM

What a terrible model

Darth band, darth Vader’s uncle

After the MLK day storm Though on a smaller scale, this period features additional chances for snow each day behind the departing large scale winter storm. Tuesday lake effect snow will continue to the south and southeast of the Lakes. Snow will likely be found heaviest near Lake Ontario where a secondary trough will be dropping across the Lake, enhance low level convergence and moisture. Wednesday a fast moving alberta clipper will pass across our region, leaving several inches of snow in its wake. Ahead of this feature temperatures will rise to around freezing Wednesday before another arctic airmass drops across our region to close out the week. Thursday will be colder with highs in the lower 20s, with chances for lake effect snow south of Lake Ontario on a light northerly flow. With the arctic airmass featuring little ambient moisture, any lake effect snow will be fluffy and light.

Do you have any video/news highlights of this event?

Euro definitely went a few ticks NW, obviously still snowing after this frame.

Wow you're right its a few of those SE ones pulling the mean to the right.

Quite a few complete misses for Buffalo on GEFS, definitely went further SE then 12z.

50 miles west and you get a dusting over here, lake effect type cut off

Welcome Back Freaky!

Theres your 20 mile shift SE wolfie.

That's .25" per hour QPF

Yeah I've never seen it before in all my time looking at weather models in Upstate. I've seen it many times in strong Nor'easters.