The Waterboy

We haven’t really discussed the typically NW shift that often occurs 24-48 hours out.  We’re right in that timeframe now.  I know you KC folks want to see that!  Thoughts anyone? 

Like many of you, I’m nervous since we’ve been watching this for days (but it feels like weeks!) and the models had huge totals that are now trickling downward some.  The chances of this being a swing and a miss are extremely low.  
The GFS has been steady.  The Euro looked solid.  Canadian moved our direction.  No need to panic (I’m talking to myself) on one run of the NAM that still wasn’t a total train wreck.  
 

If things hold steady we’ll be getting excited by this time tomorrow.  Now, where is my brown paper bag before I hyperventilate!  

3 minutes ago, JoMo said:

18z NAM is really going to wrap it up at the end of the run.

We need that a little more NW and we’re golden!  
 

is the break in the action between he 60-66ish odd?  And feasible?   It is the NAM after hour 60 so grain of salt.

1 minute ago, Solution Man said:

Post it

For some reason I can screenshot from Pivotal on my phone.  Not sure if it doesn’t allow it or it’s user error.  Here’s the link though.  
 

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=snku_acc&rh=2021021218&fh=48&r=us_sc&dpdt=&mc=

JoMo, you see the 18z HRRR for you???

2 minutes ago, JoMo said:

The 15z RAP just finished. It also has that crazy band, although maybe just a bit farther SE?

That works well for both of us!  

3 minutes ago, JoMo said:

12z GFS V16 was more generous farther north because it was more neutral/negative tilted and also tracked the core farther west.

It also had the same narrow band at hr 48 that the HRRR shows.  

Looks like the 12z NAM will be better.   And more in line with the GFS/Euro.  

Light snow in Bentonville.  Not sure if it’s a minor wave of some type or lake effect off of Beaver Lake???

That was an odd outcome on the NAM.  I’ll take it for me personally but weird nonetheless.  

Just now, JoMo said:

So the NAM is interesting so far, lol

For sure!  

^ YES!!!

1 minute ago, JoMo said:

You have a sub to pivotalweather? Euro Kuchera is only available with sub. The numbers are off though, so I'm not sure if Pivotals or Weatherbell's algorithm is off. 

 

That’s right!  Totally forgot that.  No, I don’t have a subscription.  That explains a majority of it.  I like the WB map much better anyway!  

34 minutes ago, StormChazer said:

Here is the totals from both storms.

This map looks completely different than the Pivotal Kuchera map.  And by a lot.  Pivotal shows the heaviest amounts up through Central Ark and 10” for OKC.  How are the two off by so much?  

Just now, KC Storm said:

Not to be a downer but from living through so many east coast storms just a heads up on the Kuchie maps. They are fun but they are normally way over done. I hope it is right though.

I don’t fundamentally disagree with your statement.  However, this will be happening with very cold temps so I would say it’s more plausible than normal.  In a typical situation I don’t look at Kuchera ever. 

Can someone post the 06 v16 clown map?  It’s insanity but fun to look at.  3 feet for Tulsa.  

1 minute ago, jojo762 said:

Looks like 12z GFS was a bit of a snowfall upgrade for most compared to the 06z, but still a tad less than 00z. Getting close to that period in model land where it is hard for them to be off astronomically. 

It’s hard not to already be excited about the possibilities even though there are plenty of opportunities to screw us over.  The GFS has stood its ground since at least Monday.   Maybe we can all breathe a bit easier in about 48 hours once this gets sampled.  I’ll admit it, I’m giddy...

06 GFSv16 through 168 went bonkers!   
 

06z GFSv16 finally out to be 108 on Pivotal.  Still looks solid.   Looks better than the 06z GFS.  The storm is just getting to AR/MO at 96.  Having issues on my phone posting the map. 

Looks like the GFSv16 is having issues running again.  It’s been stuck on hr90 for a while now.  

9 minutes ago, jojo762 said:

For those wanting a potentially more tempered, cautious approach, here's the NWS NBM 00z snow output for this weekend's storm.

I wonder if this takes into consideration the higher 15-20:1 ratios.  Any idea since it’s a blend?

GFS has the Wed/Thurs storm too. 

1 minute ago, NWAflizzard said:

I know.  I am just reaching for anything to keep me optimistic! 

I’m right there with you.  Optimism is the name of the game for now.  Plenty of time to be pissed later if this all falls apart.  

8 minutes ago, NWAflizzard said:

End of NAM looks interesting.

I was just thinking that too but then I told myself it’s the NAM at 84.  Ha!  Regardless, very good look if we extrapolate it out the next 3 or 4 frames.  

18z GFS going to be insane again

8 minutes ago, JoMo said:

Ok, time for the 18z GFS. Wonder what curveball it's going to throw this run.

I’m nervous every time a new run starts...