The Waterboy

Wondering how you all feel about these: 

1.  I’ll take a wet snow over a dry, blowing snow pretty much every time.  
2.  I much prefer models showing a few inches and the storm over performing vs this nonsense of 12” turning into way less.  

11 minutes ago, schoeppeya said:

Absolutely classic that we immediately started trending away from the high end solutions after this post

You jinxed it!  And we’re all blaming you!!!

Finally started coming down heavier in Bentonville.  Road/driveway coated in 30 mins or less.  We’re going to need these heavy bands to continue for a few hours straight in order to get 6+.  

All snow here in NWA.  Decent sized flakes.  Roads are primarily wet even at 23°.  Happy to see we escaped the sleet/fz rain.  Hopefully everybody transitions quickly.  

6 minutes ago, schoeppeya said:

I dont know that moods soured but the short term trends arent QUITE as favorable as after the 18z suite

Fair enough.  That makes sense.  Now it’s time to have fun and see what happens!  

The mood here soured quickly…. what happened???

Edit:  03z RAP only shows 13” for me versus the 18” on the 21z.  

Let’s not throw out the baby with the bath water.  

22 minutes ago, JoMo said:

The 18z HRRR is shifting farther south again with NE OK being the main target area instead of SE KS. 

14” in Bentonville.   Wow…

15z RAP drops between 0.75 to 1” QPF in a swath from far SE KS, NE OK, SW MO, into NW AR.  

Wichita NWS mentions ratios 18:1 - 20:1.  

Models are locked into a major event for pretty much everybody NE of OKC.  Still some interesting differences in the heaviest bands which will be almost impossible to predict in advance.  
Tulsa, Wichita, Joplin, Springfield, Bentonville all look like the potential bullseye areas.  The NAM continues to be the outlier and it hasn’t been great for the entire storm. 

RDPS and ICON smash NE OK and NW AR.  

7 minutes ago, MoWeatherguy said:

If NAM is right me and you are screwed.

Yes we are.  I’m not convinced it’s right.  Way too much sleet to start.  
 

18z RDPS going to look good for us which is the trend we want to see continue.  
 

EDIT: Looks like the ICON will be solid too. 

NAM still continues to be the overall outlier compared to pretty much every other model.  Let’s hope it’s wrong. 

18z ICON continues to be a solid hit for us.  

3 hours ago, MoWeatherguy said:

That "weather on the 8's" was classic.  Remember it very well.  They had some great personalities on TWC.

I remember the good old days of TWC as well.  I used to have a NOAA radar detector that would play a recorded forecast from NWS Tulsa.   It would update around lunchtime every day.  

As Nate Bargatze says - I’m from the 1900’s. 
 

Bottom line in this reminiscing is: 

Some of us (me included) are getting old!  
 

If you younger folks don’t know what we’re talking about, enjoy your youth!!!  

10 minutes ago, stormdragonwx said:

It must have really came down after I went to bed as I measured just shy of 3 inches. Got just shy of 7 inches on the east side of Fayetteville with the wraparound still moving in.

Same for me in Bentonville.   We got 4” after 10:30 last night.  Just measured between 6-7” total. 

10 minutes ago, MUWX said:

If you’re already at two inches, it feels like the forecast is pretty much on track to verify perfectly, no? 

Probably so.  Just stating it’s been interesting to have light, but steady flakes since about 5:00.  Nothing really heavy.  I still think 5-6” is very doable.   
 

Sounds like some areas around Fort Smith and south will hit a foot or more.   I also think Muskogee/Tahlequah also has some juicy totals when it’s all over.  

32 minutes ago, MoWeatherguy said:

Only 1" here in Bella Vista at 9pm. We haven't had any good banding at all here.  We might eke out a couple of more if we're lucky.

I’m around 2” in Bentonville.  Benton/Washington Counties have been in the lightest radar echos pretty much the entire event.   The heavier stuff east of Tulsa never shifts to the east.  

18 minutes ago, MoWeatherguy said:

Starting to fill in now.  We'll need some heavy bands to get to 4-6, tho.

Yes we do!  Fingers crossed.  

How is it that NWA gets stuck in the middle of the dry air donut hole???  Ugh!!!

The NAM was an absolute smash!!!

Looks like 18z high-res Canadian shifted NW ever so slightly which increases totals for pretty much everybody.  

12z Canadian stays the course which is nice to see.  Very similar to its 12z run yesterday and more robust than the 00z last night.  

And right on cue the NW shifts comes…

12z Canadian has a nasty ice storm next Monday/Tuesday.  Yikes!!! 

The radar west of OKC looks good.  Let’s get a few inches and enjoy all the hard work we’ve put into this!!!