The Waterboy

2 minutes ago, stormdragonwx said:

Yeah I got a bad feeling this is gonna become a nasty Ice Storm for my neck of the woods. I remember the one in 2000 that hit around this time of the year.

You and I get hammered on that Canadian run.   The 2009 storm (was 2000 a typo?) was awful.  Lots of damage.   

CMC is an ugly ice storm.  

Not a good trend overnight...

5 minutes ago, StormChazer said:

NAM is now biting on the closed low; first run to do so.

 

The rest of the run after H75 was kind of a hot mess.  

27 minutes ago, StormChazer said:

12Z Euro Members.

 

Still looking good.  Do the ensembles have a lot of ice too?  

NAM is just getting into range.  6z had snow breaking out at H84 but the 12z lost it.  The next few runs will give a lot more clarity.  

13 minutes ago, StormChazer said:

If that were to happen verbatim (which we can assume it won’t) we’re talking about catastrophic results in a lot of places.  Absolutely insane.  My backyard shows .75+ of fz rain, 5+ inches of sleet, and 3+ inches of snow.  Wow!   
And JoMo gets a foot of snow.  

Canadian going to be a good run.  
 

EDIT:  Looks again like a big ice storm for many of us.  

Just now, StormChazer said:

00ZGFS did seem to inch more towards a solution between the12Z Euro and 12Z Canadian.

The last few runs continue to shift back towards the west.  Not sure anyone cares much about the ICON but it splits the difference between the CMC and the GFS and runs the snow up through Eastern OK/NW AR.  

12z CMC is interesting...

Merry Christmas all!!!

Congrats from NW Arkansas on a white Christmas!!!!  Super happy for you guys out East.  

53 minutes ago, JoMo said:

Canadian gonna do some fujiwhara stuff. Still an interesting timeframe. 

3 ft in western OK!  LOL.  

00z GEM went absolutely nuts with the 29-31st storm.  15” for me and still snowing at H240.  Laughable scenario but fun to look at.  

32 minutes ago, JoMo said:

No dice on the 12z GFS and the 12z ICON changed back to the GFS'ish look. Canadian went more southern this run though. Hmm.

There was a comment in one of the other forums about the 12z NAM bringing the storm onshore further south into Central CA.  Not sure if that matters any at this point but worth noting.   
It seems like there are still a handful of different possible scenarios on the table.  
Would like to see the 12zEuro continue its trend from 00z. 

Looks like our chances for a Christmas miracle are slim and dwindling.  18z GFS does have a nice storm on the 30th.  

Nothing super exciting on the 12z Euro.  It’s back to showing cold on the 24th and 25th but pushes to the east pretty quickly.   No precip to speak of at all.  

47 minutes ago, JoMo said:

The Tues system is actually a decent system as it comes out of the Rockies, which provides snow for the western half of OK. The problem is that it's weakening and opening up as energy digs into the backside of it. Same system should give portions of the northeast a nice snowfall.

Looking at the 12z runs the NAM is a bit drier and the GFS/CMC ‘slightly’ better.  That’s probably grasping at straws though.  The changes weren’t substantial regardless.  But still have 12-18 hours to go.  Also sounds like some precip may be virga due to very dry air initially.  

51 minutes ago, JoMo said:

Tues doesn't look like too much. The system looks moisture starved on all the models so outside of the western half of OK and portions of KS, it doesn't look like more than light snow. 

Not sure if it matters but the 00z NAM look slightly more interesting for Tuesday.  Still nothing too exciting but maybe a trend in the right direction?  
 

Edit: The 3km NAM still looks like crap.  

7 inches for me in North Bentonville.  I was definitely in a sweet spot.  Had multiple hours of moderate/heavy snow.  Definitely a great Pre-Christmas gift.  

3-4 inches in north Bentonville.  Still coming down with large flakes. 

Edit: Just measured 5 to 5 1/2 IMBY.  

Sleet transitioning to snow in NWA now.  

22 minutes ago, Ozarkwx said:

Holy moly, the 3km HRRR going nuts over NW Arkansas.  Is this a mirage?

I’m in Bentonville.  I would love to be in the sweet spot for once!  

Yep, one of the TV’s mets last night had accumulations of a dusting to 5 inches.  

They typically don’t want to predict accumulation totals until it’s literally falling from the sky. 

All I care about is that we end the 7 year drought.     

00Z HRRR looks good for OK through AR.   Amounts taper off in SW MO.