Maggie Valley Steve

My low was 40 even with a low stratus deck.

No chance of frost in the morning. We've been socked in with clouds since overnight last night. Even with the clouds this morning I managed a low of 49.

Looking more likely we could our first frost Friday morning. Leaves around the house are almost done falling and we did a major leaf blowing today. The worst is almost over for me except for my allergies!

Take with a grain of salt, but the GFS has been rather insistent on a strong front arriving around the 20th to 21st. Our first freezing temperatures are near those dates climo wise.

Temperatures warmed overnight as the wind turn to the SE. Mugginess also returns with chances of rain until the next stout cold front arrives Wednesday. I'm seeing the cold fronts progressing fairly quickly in the medium range into long range.

What a glorious day in the Valley today. Beautiful Carolina Blue skies and temperature briefly touched 70. The leaves are quickly beginning to drop across portions of the Parkway. My Poplar trees should be done next week which is the earliest I've seen in the past 5 years. This weekend should be peak for elevations above 5K. Temperatures in the upper 30’s tomorrow night and again on Saturday morning should escalate the leaf change down into the higher Valley location in the week ahead.

We've been in the clouds all day with the Wedge firmly established. Drizzle has returned in earnest this evening in the Valley. I had a high of 69 today and a low this morning of 58. Thanks for sharing your amazing pictures Timm! I always look forward to you sharing!

Breathe easy neighbors. I like our chance tonight. Cold air is coming!

We're getting showers in the Valley now. Heavier rain looks likely for some.

TD 9 has formed via the 11AM NHC Update.

12Z Track guidance

Morning Update from the WPC regarding excessive rainfall and amounts.

I just emptied 1.65 out of the rain gage for the last 72 hour. Most of that fell late Wednesday night into yesterday morning.

The 12Z GFS solution suggests our Region could receive 3 to 5 inches of rain the next 6 days. There does not appear to be much of a wind threat via the GFS. We could manage that.

The first low level recon is underway. So far there is no indication of surface circulation.

I'm not sold yet on the various model solutions for 94L. I'd feel more confident if we had days of agreement as we did last year with Helene. Once recon gets in for their standard cyclone sampling I believe we will get better agreement in the Hurricane and operational guidance. As you can see below, a lot of aircraft assets are being ramped up and the G-IV high altitude surveillance flights will be valuable for the upper air pattern conditions. 000 NOUS42 KNHC 251715 REPRPD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 115 PM EDT THU 25 SEPTEMBER 2025 SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD) VALID 26/1100Z TO 27/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2025 TCPOD NUMBER.....25-116 I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. SUSPECT AREA (NEAR HISPANIOLA - AL94) FLIGHT ONE - NOAA 49 FLIGHT TWO - NOAA 42 A. 27/0000Z A. 27/0000Z B. NOAA9 09GGA SURV B. NOAA2 10GGA TDR C. 26/1730Z C. 26/2000Z D. NA D. 22.3N 74.8W E. NA E. 26/2100Z TO 27/0300Z F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT F. SFC TO 15,000 FT G. SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE G. TAIL DOPPLER RADAR H. NO WRA ACTIVATION H. WRA ACTIVATION FLIGHT THREE - TEAL 75 FLIGHT FOUR - NOAA 49 A. 27/0600Z A. 27/1200Z B. AFXXX 11GGA SURVEY B. NOAA9 12GGA SURV C. 27/0445Z C. 27/0530Z D. 22.8N 75.3W D. NA E. 27/0530Z TO 27/0900Z E. NA F. SFC TO 15,000 FT F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT G. SYSTEM SURVEY G. SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE H. WRA ACTIVATION H. NO WRA ACTIVATION FLIGHT FIVE - NOAA 42 FLIGHT SIX - TEAL 76 A. 27/1200Z A. 27/1130,1730Z B. NOAA2 1309A CYCLONE B. AFXXX 1409A CYCLONE C. 27/0800Z C. 27/1015Z D. 23.2N 75.7W D. 23.2N 75.7W E. 27/0900Z TO 27/1600Z E. 27/1100Z TO 27/1730Z F. SFC TO 15,000 FT F. SFC TO 15,000 FT G. TAIL DOPPLER RADAR G. FIX H. WRA ACTIVATION H. WRA ACTIVATION 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: A. CONTINUE 6-HOURLY FIXES IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND IS A THREAT. B. TWO MORE NOAA P-3 TAIL DOPPLER RADAR MISSIONS INTO AL94 FOR 28/0000Z AND 28/1200Z, DEPARTING KLAL AT 27/2000Z AND 28/0800Z RESPECTIVELY. C. TWO MORE NOAA 49 G-IV SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSIONS AROUND AL94 FOR THE 28/0000Z AND 28/1200Z SYNOPTIC TIMES, DEPARTING KLAL AT 27/1730Z AND 28/0530Z RESPECTIVELY. 3. REMARKS: A. THE TEAL 75 AND TEAL 76 MISSIONS INTO AL94 TASKED IN TCPOD 25-116 WERE CANCELED BY NHC AT 25/1200Z. B. THE TEAL 74 MISSION INTO AL94 HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A LOW-LEVEL INVEST NEAR 21.9N 74.2W FOR 26/1730Z, WITH THE TAKEOFF TIME CHANGED 6 HOURS TO 26/1545Z. II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE. $$ KAL

And there's the first statement from GSP this evening.

Big slow moving storms moving into the far SW Mountain Counties. GSP stated in their afternoon disco that rain chance increase over the Mountains overnight into tomorrow morning. Nothing looks severe, but there is so very rich tropical moisture out there and heavy rainfall is a possibility.

NHC will initiate Advisories for TS Humberto at 5 PM.

The 12Z GFS solution suggests our rain chances will continue over the next 5 to 7 days with some SW Mountain locations possibly exceeding 5 inches

We're getting a shower this evening in the Valley. It's looking like a wet period ahead the next several days. My neighbor just below us commented that we are having an early Fall. Her family have been in Maggie Valley for generations. She stated that this year reminds her of 10 years ago. To @WxKnurd I was in Sylva yesterday and Waynesville today. There is a spattering of color, bit we're still a couple of weeks away from peak at high Valley locations. I'll head up to Waterrock Knob in the next day or two and if I can some pictures to share.

No rain today, but we had a decent shower last evening for about 45 minutes. Our Poplar trees a starting to dump on September 22nd. That seems early to me.

We will need to keep an eye on mid to late next week. The models are coming together suggesting the possibility of a rather potent upper low swinging in from the NW and cutting off in our neck of the woods. While it is far too soon to know the details, the potential is there for flooding concerns right around the 1 year Anniversary of Helene.

Lots thunder and just a brief light shower here in the Valley.