LakePaste25

Classic CAD setup which denies the coast of the torch. So despite it being warm just about everywhere else, we’ll constantly hear about how it’s “not a torch” because the most important cities in America will be cooler.

the warm pattern is coming As expected, the cold pattern that was in place this month is unlikely to finish with any significant I-95 snowstorms (there will be a light/moderate event this weekend). The H5 pattern on the ensemble mean left little room for little amplification, and the EPS snow mean was not supportive. It’s always important to lean into the pattern before hyping big snowstorms with every cold pattern.

Models have been placing the block too far west, which impacts how much it bleeds into the EPO domain. Take the 11th-14 for example. A week ago, the EPS had a positive EPO for this time period. Now, it has a deeply negative EPO.

I don’t have the data for N NC, but RIC had a major snowfall in December 2018.

those could be coming next fall from the same suspects LOL

The medium range appears to show a more canonical La Niña pattern than we’ve seen from previous La Niña winters this decade, with a ridge over the GOA, cold in interior western Canada spreading eastward through the Great Lakes. Recent La Niña winters have shown extreme displacement of the North Pacific ridge from what is the typical location, with 2022-2023 featuring the ridge very far west (over the Aleutians), resulting in extremely heavy seasonal snows in the Sierra Nevadas (La Nina is normally dry there). 2024-2025 featured the north pacific ridge displaced much further east than usual, resulting in very high +PNA values and is very atypical for La Niña. It’ll be interesting to see if we experience more extreme displacements of the typical La Niña pattern this coming decade.

I still do not see any pattern that supports major I-95 snow through mid december. Nothing will dig with this. You’re looking at light events/sliders. Still favors Great Lakes/Interior the most.

I think it’s a downstream consequence of re-establishing the equatorward pacific jet and rebuilding the -EPO.

I think you are looking good for at least a light-moderate event in the city within the next 2 weeks.

It did. The euro shows a more alternating waveguide (with EPS support). Fast pac jet with some systems bombing into AK while another amps up the ridge behind it. I can’t show the animation due to file size limits.

Are you referring to Margavage? His primary audience are people with an IQ < 70, and those who are completely unaware of how meteorology works. Wouldn’t worry too much about those people. A dime a dozen. Grifters. Agreed with @brooklynwx99’s take on the -WPO, but I could see a trough that is not as deep as what is shown if the +EPO verifies stronger. I also don’t see a full blown CONUS torch happening.

Yes, there’s research out there that the Indo-pacific warm pool can contribute to western ridging/eastern trough, sometimes even independent of ENSO. Lots of research out on this topic: https://journals.ametsoc.org/downloadpdf/view/journals/clim/29/22/jcli-d-16-0145.1.pdf https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/48389/noaa_48389_DS1.pdf

Walker circulation and yes. It’s why relative ONI (RONI) is used frequently here, because the eastern equatorial pacific warming relatively slower than the rest of the pacific is amplifying La Niña and also weakens the signal of El Niño to some extent. Walker circulation: https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/walker-circulation-ensos-atmospheric-buddy

It is due to climate change. The trade winds unevenly distribute the warmer water to the western pacific. This phenomenon only temporarily bounces back during El Niño years, and doesn’t even fully do this anymore. It’s here to stay.

10-day ensemble mean for early to mid December looks decent. More favored here in the interior/lakes due to climo, but also can’t rule out one or two a small events and/or front-end for I-95. For you I-95’ers, Boston on N is probably more favored for a moderate event or greater. We will have to see how things evolve.

The effects of the SSW look to completely decouple from the surface (for now).

Yeah, there’s no doubt that the warming climate is increasing the size of the SE ridge regardless of whether it gets over or under modeled. Ridges are getting larger and the breadth of below normal temps from troughs is getting smaller. These are just facts. doesn’t mean it can’t snow or get cold though. But in terms of getting the colder temps, it’s like spinning a prize wheel with less winning spaces to land on.

Fair but we also don’t verify a forecast with a forecast.

The most anomalously cold air in the entire northern hemisphere will reside in Canada, allowing the northern tier of the Eastern US to stay somewhat cool despite the -PNA.

yeah strong nino decembers can “bust cold” such as with 2009 blocking, while nina decembers can “bust warm” such as with 2021. with the new climate, the odds of course are always more favorable to go warm than cold. i don’t think this december ends up torching though, especially northern tier. i can see it going 1-2 above.

For december, one would definitely want to be north of I-80. Even here, probably still dealing with rain from time to time.

People put too much emphasis on the AO/NAO/SPV stuff. You can have a +TNH/Hudon vortex anchored in place all winter coupled with an SPV on roids. This was mostly the case in 13-14/14-15. Then again I am biased towards the great lakes, but I like seeing the indo-pacific warm pool and the -EPO pattern show up.

It is probably just picking up a weak signal from the Indo-pacific warm pool. I would be more worried about it if p8 was not propagating as a strong KW. Note the WWB associated with the P8 pass through, which is what we typically see with weakening Nina’s.

We saw this a few times last winter. Fast pac jet leads to systems undercutting the PNA ridge, causing energy to get buried in the southwest, thus, rolling over the ridge into the east.

not to be too finicky but that new run is not really a classic -nao to begin with. more of a “newfoundland block.” a true bootleg -nao like we’ve seen in recent winters would be the traditional +gph anomalies extending from greenland through the eastern seaboard