Stx_Thunder

After a long while of not having one down here, had a good thunder day, all day during the daytime yesterday down here with training cells coming onshore, with what appeared to be an old frontal boundary that came down the coast to right around me (before moving back northeast toward Houston today). Some of the lightning strikes were pretty bright inside as it wasn't really dark at all outside underneath the cells. Radar showed about 4 - 5 in. storm totals from yesterday alone. On top of the heavier rainfall that started last week around TX coast. ---------- Just as I suspected they would (even though they didn't sooner in the day 4 - 8 last weekend), SPC finally going with a slight risk area over much the northern half of TX into OK for tomorrow ahead of the incoming trough. WPC backed off on the expansive excessive rainfall Slight risk area for Wednesday - Thursday period they originally had last weekend for most of TX. But still have a large marginal risk covering the eastern and southern half. So wouldn't be surprised if they reintroduce a slight risk further south for Thursday - Friday period.

Well WPC already jumped the excessive rainfall outlook slight risk bandwagon. Which is plausible given there's still more than enough time for Gulf moisture to build further north ahead of the incoming trough/surface front. Main question now will be how deep the trough is coming into the state mid-week.

Saw a nice little thunder cell develop right over me around sunrise yesterday after seeing some decent lightning strikes going on an hour before, off to the southeast before it started getting daylight. Looks like the 2023 horrible domination season of the furnace 500mb High for TX is officially coming to a close next week. Expecting good rain chances, Every day now through next week for TX Coast with a persistent gulf moisture influx aloft. Much more normal for September down here. --------- Statewide, things look like they will be getting quite convectively active next week around Thursday, with the first significant incoming Pacific trough of the season that could be pretty deep moving into TX. Recent - latest GFS & Euro runs generally been showing up to 50 kts bulk shear over the central/northern part. So supercells are definitely not out of question next week. Which there could be a more organized severe (MCS) threat for the eastern half. Especially with EN finally back and evidently in play here early in the season. I suspect SPC will input a 15% risk area in the Day 4 - 8 outlook tomorrow or Sunday, as they've already discussed the potential today. Even though it may be a narrowly organized threat.

Looks like another decent mid-level shortwave moving through the state in the NW mid-upper flow aloft this afternoon with storms increasing over the hill country region now, north of SAT. Looks like convective chances continue through early next week for TX coast. CAMs today also showing a 500mb Low meandering around here or just east over the Northwestern Gulf the next few days. Saw a few nice anvil crawlers on the backside of the developing MCS going southwest into the Coastal Bend region on Houston's uptown EarthCam after sunset Monday evening. Missed the show when it was coming into Houston during day. But saw more of the lightning from the parent cells as it got more organized on a live streaming nest cam around Victoria area after dark. Didn't see much or hear any thunder around me later that evening/after midnight. Stayed mostly west before fully decaying. ---------- CFS showing somewhat below normal temps for much of state in Mid-October. So looks like a bigger and more active pattern shift to actual TX Fall still in the cards for next month. And subtropical High continues to be on weakening trend out west with 500mb heights no more than about 590 forecast around the core going into next week. Definitely nowhere near as strong or dominant as it was during the past months (thankfully). Which is all good news. Also have to keep ongoing and strengthening EN in mind here too. Which generally means more cooler/active Fall-Spring due to more southerly storm tracks.

- https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2196.html

Even though it's early morning and most of the ongoing storms now are below severe limits with only 1 warned storm, still seeing a very good amount of lightning discharges being shown on data. Especially in the MCC northwest of San Antonio that's been maintaining its intensity pretty well since the past 2 hours with a good amount of positive charge strikes embedded. Just within a 5-minute period.

Also, recent lightning analysis data within the past hour showing some quite powerful strikes in the mini thunder cluster that's been going on near Livingston, that could make a run for Houston area in the next couple of hours or so. (200+ Kiloamps strike)

MCD out for North/Central TX region: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2192.html CAM runs today and this time are in good agreement with the North/Central TX convective initiation by this evening. So it explains why SPC is holding firm on the large SLGT risk area through tonight. Will be interesting how the likely MCS evolves/progresses south toward the southern/eastern half of the state tonight/Monday morning given the already sufficient mid-upper level dynamics in place (Effective Shear already around 35 kts, and MMP value around 50% in STX on 12z CRP sounding today). As the High has just started its significant moving away from the state trend just in the past day or two.

Looks like a similar northwesterly-northerly flow pattern setup like the past weeks with more mid-level shortwaves riding southward and another surface front through the state this week. Stubborn mid-upper level High also starting to back further away to the southwest now.

Was watching one of those cells maturing as it came right over the Houston metro around 3 or 4 PM on one of the railroad cams facing the skyscrapers on Youtube that day on Friday afternoon, 15th. Couldn't see any of the skyscrapers at all for a little while behind the downpour wall in the core. And a decent amount of CG lightning was going on all around the cam until it moved off to the east.

Both globals and CAMs have been showing generally 30 - 35 Kts of Bulk Shear over most of the state during these next couple of days. Which would support at least some stronger updraft intensity and organization. So stronger clusters and a few supercells can't be ruled out. More statewide convective onset (including southern half) looks to start tomorrow (Wednesday) as most of the latest CAM runs tonight are now depicting.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2139.html I noticed a slightly more comfortable feeling outside tonight down here and saw DPs are in the 60s despite persistent onshore flow (no front). Global models not forecasting statewide (large) convective MCS events until about the end of the week when better support aloft for lift with the southern stream flow dives further south into TX pushing the cool front all the way through the state on the weekend. All the convective outflow processes would help push it south faster. More significant MCS events could start happening a little earlier by Thursday. Maybe Wednesday, as I'm starting to see that in some of the CAMs tonight even into South TX. But at least forecast precip probabilities have been staying pretty high almost everywhere for TX by weekend.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2136.html

New convective areas flaring up right now in the northern Hill Country, and just up the road from me here around the Coastal Bend/mid-TX coast (not too far southwest of Houston). CAM runs from today still aren't showing much going on in the state through tonight and mainly over the western hill country and TX Panhandle later tomorrow. ARWv2 has been showing some cells trying to move into my area down the coast this evening since yesterday evening run. I suspect the action developing between San Angelo and Dallas right now is being caused by another potent mid-level shortwave. So it has potential to organize into an MCS. If it does, it might reach all the way south to the coastal bend/South TX overnight. San Antonio, of course, has much better probability of getting hit later this evening. It was a good amount of thunder cells literally on east side of the metro as I saw on the ABC 13 streaming tower cams around 5:30 this morning. Lightning was pretty bright and fairly frequent almost overhead watching the cam looking east toward downtown. Heard a few good thunder rumbles on the railroad cams on YTube also like on Sampson St.

New MD out for maturing MCS in East TX: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2118.html --------- SPC Day 1 outlook TX Marginal Risk area for today larger now than on Day 2 outlook yesterday.

- Saw this evening's 0Z Fort Worth upper-air SPC sounding a short while ago and it's very interesting to note how little CAPE & not much atmospheric moisture there is (especially for the time of year) being acted on by this apparently vigorous incoming mid-level shortwave up there in North TX as new clusters are starting to fire up east/southeast of DFW now. Though the frequent cloud lightning I'm seeing on webcams in Dallas and Fort Worth right now, is being attributed to those steep mid-level lapse rates near 8 C. ---------- This evening's 0Z CAM runs seem to be doing a poor job handling this mesoscale convective event, but do show the current activity making a run down into Houston overnight. Would not be surprised if it makes it given that it's a pretty vigorous incoming second shortwave the CAMs were showing yesterday. Tomorrow could be interesting further down into Southern TX region.

Looks like a decent thunder event for DFW shortly. Looking at one of the live streaming EarthCams there right now, the lightning is fairly frequent off to the northwest (EarthCam.com). Though I don't see many CG strikes at all on current lightning map data.

SPC has MD out for the developing cluster in DFW region: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2116.html It's also looking a lot better now with organization into an MCC for the most part now on TX centered radar/lightning data map: Finally nice to see a convective event that's non-tropical and linearly organized like that going on in the state again especially after this summer..

A LOT of that can be thanks to the typical compressional heating effects of the cool front in DFW vicinity near the Red river (not really the heat dome High as 500 MB heights are < 595 on this morning's 12Z upper-air soundings so not lots of subsidence/warming aloft anymore). As there's a cluster of Thunder cells firing now in Wichita Falls area ahead of that 2nd incoming shortwave impulse in OK moving southeast in the established mid-upper level northerly flow aloft. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/obswx/maps/500_230908_12.gif

- Well-defined, thunder active outflow inching closer to Houston with that lead shortwave approaching TX/LA coast.

Should be a different story up there around Eastern TX region tomorrow afternoon - Saturday. CAMs also starting to show stuff reaching into Southern TX by Saturday now instead of Sunday. ARWs holding on, and now 0Z HRRR run tonight latching onto those 2 defined mid-level impulses diving south through DFW - HOU regions with some decent sized convective clusters around Houston area later Friday afternoon and Dallas area from the second main impulse Friday night tomorrow.