Stx_Thunder

Had a sudden downpour from an inflow streamer cell come over me around 4 am and another (not as heavy where I am) going on a short while ago. Picking up again with the fanning MCS coming down here and hearing more thunder now. Looks like activity is going to stick around in the southern half all day seeing radar trends further north toward San Antonio. Was never forecast to be severe this week over the southern half of TX (including Houston) as the majority of effective shear was going to stay over northern half no matter what this week on models. But with all the deeper moisture streaming in around the region, WPC still keeping a fairly large Marginal risk area going today. Though I feel they may be underdoing it a little through tonight, at least down here with the several inch rainfall totals I've already seen since last week and the 2"+ PWs already in place. Could have some training of cells going on around here today (something like what happened Monday). But more interestingly this early in the season with EN back, could have some overrunning type rain and maybe a few thunder cells going on tomorrow behind the initial front with more shortwave energy coming in from the southwest with the southern stream jet (if drier air aloft doesn't filter in too quick). Real cold front not coming through state till later Friday. Looks like clouds will stick around in the southern half for most of the weekend, with another pattern change later next week when upper level flow veers back southwest. GFS/Euro showing even cooler temps late next week. Oh boy... I definitely know your type on these places. Not worth anything else here with you at all. Fort Worth got hurricane force gusts yesterday evening. That's official. You just can't argue with 60 kts effective shear and already nil CIN. So the risk was 100% there all around DFW regardless of your opinion on what defines an enhanced risk (not SPC's classification/reasoning). Which I should add, is below a moderate risk.

Should also mention that the morning enhanced risk area upgrade update wasn't just for significant severe hail that promoted it, but for significant damaging wind gusts also.

- Bulk shear was nearing 50 kts (like the 12Z CAMs were showing by evening), effective shear nearing 60 kts, and Significant Severe value was passing 50 K at the time of the 0Z FWD sounding launch tonight, with virtually nil CIN of any kind. Moisture was lacking a little with 60% RH in both lower and mid levels. So the boundary layer wasn't quite unstable as the lower to mid-level lapse rates dropped some during the day. Outflow or frontal boundary also outran the storms as I saw on radar going through DFW which cut off some of the boundary layer or southerly lower level inflow into the cells. Had they not been undercut by the boundary, things would've likely been a bit more interesting severe-wise all around there. Overall, it was a sufficient enough potential to justify the enhanced severe risk around DFW area with all the severe instances and warnings issued around there a while after dark, also taken into account. Especially, the convective segment with 75+ mph measured gusts that literally came right next to Fort Worth metro as I also saw on base velocity next to 9:00 PM from the west.

MUCAPE this morning is at 990mb. Which is literally just above the surface layer... I would in no way, consider that elevated. Even with a stable near surface layer, if you have enough deep-layer or effective shear and support for lift going on aloft with a relatively unstable boundary layer, it can still promote stronger cells and higher wind gusts. Especially in a very linearly forced MCS or segment. Since you replied toward me, the only other thing I'm going to add is SPC, especially on updated Day 1 outlooks, would not be highlighting your area in a large Slight risk if they knew the severe potential wasn't actually there. And, they've pretty much explained their reasoning with just about everything I wrote about the ongoing convective parameters in here. It's not just about what the conditions are at or near the surface (or how unstable/stable it is in that layer alone in your case). Elevated supercells also do actually exist. On the contrary, from all my convective analysis experience over the years, it has a lot more to do with the boundary layer when it comes to instability. And even with limited or very conditional instability overall, it still does not mean severe can't happen at all (and has before in high sheared environments). Even SPC talks a lot about all of these things too, reading their discussions frequently over the years. Also, they've expanded the enhanced risk area much closer to you now in the late morning update.

Despite the lower CAPE on this morning's sounding, I wouldn't say that's marginal instability up there in DFW given the already fairly weak inhibition, 700mb - 500mb lapse rates already up at 7 C, a 70 F + surface dew point (which I would think is pretty high for this time of year up there in October), and already almost 35 kts Effective shear, and nearing 100 kts cloud layer shear now. And, the forecast of no real MLCINH on CAMs around there through the evening. Craven/Brooks SigSevere already at 20,000 also. Which will likely increase through the day just like the shear values with the upper trough obviously getting closer. BRN low, but will probably go up later today with lower-level flow veering and increasing from the south-southeast. Plus, 12Z CAM runs like the ARWs this morning are pushing back on the main and pretty sharp convective line further into the evening compared to yesterday evening runs. This could be an indication of the upper trough deepening/slowing down. --- At this point, it looks like a close call looking at the latest data and parameters this morning as more would seem to favor it later today than not (despite it being a nocturnal convective event). Especially if there's a potent incoming mid-level shortwave involved (like SPC is talking about today). If there isn't or timing is off with the stronger dynamics coming in this evening, then severe would be less likely around there.

- SPC finally getting their act together. Wouldn't be surprised if they expand that enhanced risk into or near the DFW area this afternoon due to more significant damaging wind gusts or hail events (given the upward of 60 kt shear CAMs are showing in that region by this evening). Probably a good mid-level shortwave coming into the mix too given how deep that incoming upper level trough probably is also. Can't really underestimate these EN Fall systems. Especially being early in the season.

Latest CAMs showing 50 - 60 kts bulk shear by this evening (Wednesday) over North TX as the main convective show gets going and starts pushing south through the state into Thursday.

After a long while of not having one down here, had a good thunder day, all day during the daytime yesterday down here with training cells coming onshore, with what appeared to be an old frontal boundary that came down the coast to right around me (before moving back northeast toward Houston today). Some of the lightning strikes were pretty bright inside as it wasn't really dark at all outside underneath the cells. Radar showed about 4 - 5 in. storm totals from yesterday alone. On top of the heavier rainfall that started last week around TX coast. ---------- Just as I suspected they would (even though they didn't sooner in the day 4 - 8 last weekend), SPC finally going with a slight risk area over much the northern half of TX into OK for tomorrow ahead of the incoming trough. WPC backed off on the expansive excessive rainfall Slight risk area for Wednesday - Thursday period they originally had last weekend for most of TX. But still have a large marginal risk covering the eastern and southern half. So wouldn't be surprised if they reintroduce a slight risk further south for Thursday - Friday period.

Well WPC already jumped the excessive rainfall outlook slight risk bandwagon. Which is plausible given there's still more than enough time for Gulf moisture to build further north ahead of the incoming trough/surface front. Main question now will be how deep the trough is coming into the state mid-week.

Saw a nice little thunder cell develop right over me around sunrise yesterday after seeing some decent lightning strikes going on an hour before, off to the southeast before it started getting daylight. Looks like the 2023 horrible domination season of the furnace 500mb High for TX is officially coming to a close next week. Expecting good rain chances, Every day now through next week for TX Coast with a persistent gulf moisture influx aloft. Much more normal for September down here. --------- Statewide, things look like they will be getting quite convectively active next week around Thursday, with the first significant incoming Pacific trough of the season that could be pretty deep moving into TX. Recent - latest GFS & Euro runs generally been showing up to 50 kts bulk shear over the central/northern part. So supercells are definitely not out of question next week. Which there could be a more organized severe (MCS) threat for the eastern half. Especially with EN finally back and evidently in play here early in the season. I suspect SPC will input a 15% risk area in the Day 4 - 8 outlook tomorrow or Sunday, as they've already discussed the potential today. Even though it may be a narrowly organized threat.

Looks like another decent mid-level shortwave moving through the state in the NW mid-upper flow aloft this afternoon with storms increasing over the hill country region now, north of SAT. Looks like convective chances continue through early next week for TX coast. CAMs today also showing a 500mb Low meandering around here or just east over the Northwestern Gulf the next few days. Saw a few nice anvil crawlers on the backside of the developing MCS going southwest into the Coastal Bend region on Houston's uptown EarthCam after sunset Monday evening. Missed the show when it was coming into Houston during day. But saw more of the lightning from the parent cells as it got more organized on a live streaming nest cam around Victoria area after dark. Didn't see much or hear any thunder around me later that evening/after midnight. Stayed mostly west before fully decaying. ---------- CFS showing somewhat below normal temps for much of state in Mid-October. So looks like a bigger and more active pattern shift to actual TX Fall still in the cards for next month. And subtropical High continues to be on weakening trend out west with 500mb heights no more than about 590 forecast around the core going into next week. Definitely nowhere near as strong or dominant as it was during the past months (thankfully). Which is all good news. Also have to keep ongoing and strengthening EN in mind here too. Which generally means more cooler/active Fall-Spring due to more southerly storm tracks.

- https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2196.html

Even though it's early morning and most of the ongoing storms now are below severe limits with only 1 warned storm, still seeing a very good amount of lightning discharges being shown on data. Especially in the MCC northwest of San Antonio that's been maintaining its intensity pretty well since the past 2 hours with a good amount of positive charge strikes embedded. Just within a 5-minute period.

Also, recent lightning analysis data within the past hour showing some quite powerful strikes in the mini thunder cluster that's been going on near Livingston, that could make a run for Houston area in the next couple of hours or so. (200+ Kiloamps strike)

MCD out for North/Central TX region: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2192.html CAM runs today and this time are in good agreement with the North/Central TX convective initiation by this evening. So it explains why SPC is holding firm on the large SLGT risk area through tonight. Will be interesting how the likely MCS evolves/progresses south toward the southern/eastern half of the state tonight/Monday morning given the already sufficient mid-upper level dynamics in place (Effective Shear already around 35 kts, and MMP value around 50% in STX on 12z CRP sounding today). As the High has just started its significant moving away from the state trend just in the past day or two.

Looks like a similar northwesterly-northerly flow pattern setup like the past weeks with more mid-level shortwaves riding southward and another surface front through the state this week. Stubborn mid-upper level High also starting to back further away to the southwest now.

Was watching one of those cells maturing as it came right over the Houston metro around 3 or 4 PM on one of the railroad cams facing the skyscrapers on Youtube that day on Friday afternoon, 15th. Couldn't see any of the skyscrapers at all for a little while behind the downpour wall in the core. And a decent amount of CG lightning was going on all around the cam until it moved off to the east.

Both globals and CAMs have been showing generally 30 - 35 Kts of Bulk Shear over most of the state during these next couple of days. Which would support at least some stronger updraft intensity and organization. So stronger clusters and a few supercells can't be ruled out. More statewide convective onset (including southern half) looks to start tomorrow (Wednesday) as most of the latest CAM runs tonight are now depicting.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2139.html I noticed a slightly more comfortable feeling outside tonight down here and saw DPs are in the 60s despite persistent onshore flow (no front). Global models not forecasting statewide (large) convective MCS events until about the end of the week when better support aloft for lift with the southern stream flow dives further south into TX pushing the cool front all the way through the state on the weekend. All the convective outflow processes would help push it south faster. More significant MCS events could start happening a little earlier by Thursday. Maybe Wednesday, as I'm starting to see that in some of the CAMs tonight even into South TX. But at least forecast precip probabilities have been staying pretty high almost everywhere for TX by weekend.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2136.html

New convective areas flaring up right now in the northern Hill Country, and just up the road from me here around the Coastal Bend/mid-TX coast (not too far southwest of Houston). CAM runs from today still aren't showing much going on in the state through tonight and mainly over the western hill country and TX Panhandle later tomorrow. ARWv2 has been showing some cells trying to move into my area down the coast this evening since yesterday evening run. I suspect the action developing between San Angelo and Dallas right now is being caused by another potent mid-level shortwave. So it has potential to organize into an MCS. If it does, it might reach all the way south to the coastal bend/South TX overnight. San Antonio, of course, has much better probability of getting hit later this evening. It was a good amount of thunder cells literally on east side of the metro as I saw on the ABC 13 streaming tower cams around 5:30 this morning. Lightning was pretty bright and fairly frequent almost overhead watching the cam looking east toward downtown. Heard a few good thunder rumbles on the railroad cams on YTube also like on Sampson St.