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Bob Chill

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Everything posted by Bob Chill

  1. Bob Chill
    Yes It does. No member runs the primary into western KY either. One runs up into WV but almost all the others have a great track.
  2. Bob Chill
    18z gefs is the best run yet for the storm next weekend. Doesn't support the op much at all honestly...
  3. Bob Chill
    Without big deep cold, any track up into KY is going to suck. Midlevels get torched easy. We need a clean miller A for a big hit imho
  4. Bob Chill
    This panel says it all...
  5. Bob Chill
    Let's be honest folks. The gfs run sucks. Primary gets too far north and secondary is too close to the coast. That's a lot more rain than snow.
  6. Bob Chill
    JMA is a hit...
  7. Bob Chill
    Agreed. This storm is a good box checker for how we get good hits in our region -storm enters the west coast around LA or San Diego -pure southern stream shortwave that tracks across the deep south -confluence overhead and to the north -High pressure right over top as it turns north - 50/50 moving through in tandem -tail end of a cold snap -right before a flip to a warmer regime Am I missing anything?
  8. Bob Chill
    Euro ens are showing less of what you're worried about compared to the last 3 runs. I'd be much more worried if we were already sitting on the southern edge of snowfall.
  9. Bob Chill
    Yea, it's a great run. No too many pure southern sliders and a ton of hits. A few are so big that even Ji wouldn't complain.... nah, who am I kidding
  10. Bob Chill
    Euro solution was a relief imo. Ens will prob look really good...
  11. Bob Chill
    Only 1-2 hideous tracks so thats good. Some ok tracks with temp problems. Overall a pretty good run. Way better than the op at least.
  12. Bob Chill
    Gefs back off a good bit on the pure southern slider solutions. Implies a shift away from big cold/suppression which isn't a good thing imo
  13. Bob Chill
  14. Bob Chill
    Yep, we're in prime form with this one... Gfs went wester warmer and gefs went souther snowier
  15. Bob Chill
    Nah, still a lot of rain to shovel.
  16. Bob Chill
    Gfs slowing things down and digging into Mexico is one of the reasons for a rainy bad track. There are other changes for the worse with hp placement but the main culprit is the slow speed and deeper dig.
  17. Bob Chill
    Extrapolating the 12z ICON.... storm would make it here no problem imo
  18. Bob Chill
    Psu sure isn't going to like the euro but was very close to another big run.
  19. Bob Chill
    The last 2 times ive seen models lock in early like this was Jan 16 and Feb 14. But this was only the first set of runs that looked the same. Get 2-3 more suites holding the same idea and I'll be down the rabbit hole. 0z euro will probably suck and I'll ask myself why I didn't go to sleep before it ran. Eta: gefs is looking a lot more tame with the relax d13+. Eps slowly improving too. We may not even notice the warmth before we're tracking another threat.
  20. Bob Chill
    Gefs a solid improvement with mean precip shifting norrh from 18z. Plenty of good hits in the mix. Great trends today...
  21. Bob Chill
    FV3 with a very similar solution now makes all 4 ops looking the same. Uncanny.
  22. Bob Chill
    Gfs is a carbon copy of the 12z euro ens control run
  23. Bob Chill
    Starting to have that feel. Southern stream storms that enter around LA or San Diego have a lot of history here.... Ops can do pretty well at longer range with these. Still have 20 mins to change RIC in the contest thread if you believe the gfs.... nah, that's crazy talk
  24. Bob Chill
    Cmc on board but a day later... heh
  25. Bob Chill
    Man the 0z gfs is basically the same as the 12z euro with the upper levels and surface
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