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Bob Chill

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Everything posted by Bob Chill

  1. Bob Chill
    Too much of a good thing on the euro. The plot thickens.
  2. Bob Chill
    In other long range news... Gefs takes another step towards making any relaxation brief... lol. There's showme's +PNA.
  3. Bob Chill
    12z gefs shifted with the op (shocker) but still a lot of spread with timing and track. Better than 6z tho. 12z isn't really bringing any clarity other than moving away from a weak/sheared outcome.
  4. Bob Chill
    F3 is good enough. Nice upper level support and stalls the slp just off Hatteras. Another model not showing a weak/sheared/suppressed solution.
  5. Bob Chill
    Unfortunately the AO is pretty ambiguous going into Dec so we'll have to wait at least 2 weeks before we know how that's going to go down. If no progress by Dec 15th then tack on another couple weeks and we might know something. Well, something other than wondering about hitting climo snow on the year. We should be above by then.
  6. Bob Chill
    Look at the end of the gfs run. Lol. Exactly what I described could happen with a crap pac and AN heights across Canada. I still strongly believe we'll hit a shutout pattern starting sometime next week but the solution made me chuckle.
  7. Bob Chill
    The WAA piece gets squished with confluence. Minor changes and the waa slug gets here no problem. The slowdown is the stone wall of confluence too. Can that change in 6 days? Lol
  8. Bob Chill
    The only thing keeping the gfs from having a huge 1-2 punch is the confluence to the NE. I'd take my chances with that h5 progression no problem.
  9. Bob Chill
    I really like the upper level support on the gfs. Hit or not, that aint even close to weak or sheared...
  10. Bob Chill
    I'm not going to sweat a suppressed track for at least 3 days. It might be right but I'll save my worries for being on the southern fringe. The odds of improvement on a suppressed track in the med range is far higher than sitting on thr southern edge
  11. Bob Chill
    I totally agree. I've rarely if ever seen a wholesale shift for that reason alone. Guidance can give a fake signal that it makes a difference but the real reason is by the time shortwaves on onshore, the lead time is shorter and it's normal for models to shift at shorter leads.
  12. Bob Chill
    Icon looks good at h5 to not have a suppressed track. Extrapolated surface panel is decent
  13. Bob Chill
    If we were inside of 4 days I would over analyze it. Gfs and euro are very similar now. Ens on board big time. Many of the necessary ingredients for a sig MA storm are in place. Northern stream stuff can be really hard to model beyond 4 days. If something is coming that will screw this up I would look there first. So far so good but a lot of days to get through.
  14. Bob Chill
    Dc barely mixes. Like a foot along 95. Close to 2 feet in central va. 15 in my yard
  15. Bob Chill
    Not much mixing. It's a solid hit. Deform bands move through... heh
  16. Bob Chill
    Beginning around the 13-15th. Hard to say how warm it gets and for how long but it's almost a lock that a period of warmer weather compared to the last couple weeks is on the way. If we do get a strong +EPO then it could easily last more than a week.
  17. Bob Chill
    Look at the pressure differences and compare to 18z. When the primary is getting ready to enter KY the lowest pressure is way down in GA. Transfer is taking place and the primary is giving up. This is a big difference from 18z where the secondary doesn't take over until NC and the primary is further north and west. I loved the gfs. It's coming in line with the euro.
  18. Bob Chill
    Cmc is the same as the 18z gfs. It's ok though. It's catching up so next run will be money.
  19. Bob Chill
    Yep, and the lowest pressure was already in GA by then. This run is a textbook big storm for us. Def reminds me of Dec 09.
  20. Bob Chill
    Yea, if it is going to run up west of the apps and jump then the 0z gfs is basically perfect.
  21. Bob Chill
    There we go. TN to Myrtle transfer. That S works
  22. Bob Chill
    There's a ton of things that can happen in all directions. Conditions have to stay favorabe during the trip across the country for a big storm. The strength of the storm when it hits the west coast doesn't matter much. Phasing with the northern stream can make a tiny pac shortwave become a monster. A giant storm coming into socal can get shredded to pieces from confluence in the east. Possibilities are endless and that's one of the reasons that ops lose skill quickly beyond 4 days.
  23. Bob Chill
    Jan 2016 came in pretty far north but the table was set so perfectly for us. The only time we had a legit block all winter and the antecedent airmass was the coldest we had that entire winter. I'll never forget onset that afternoon. Temps in the low-mid 20's. Every single flake stuck and the roads caved 5 minutes after it started snowing.
  24. Bob Chill
    It's interesting. We can live with AN heights in Canada with BN heights across the southern tier. Not a cold look but it's not impossible to get snow like that in an otherwise AN temp pattern. I'm expecting a shutout pattern for at least a week but the gefs and eps are both gradually shifting towards a pattern that isn't a shutout even though it looks pretty crappy on the means. I can envision closed ulls and southern storm tracks underneath blocking hp in central Canada. Temps would be really dicey but mid Dec onward can be forgiving
  25. Bob Chill
    I can't put a finger on why but for some reason I'm rooting for rain in CHO
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