Bob Chill
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Everything posted by Bob Chill
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Yea, i already knew it a week ago but didnt want to sound toooo selfish
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Just hug the icon and nams until something better comes along. We're in chips fall mode anyway. Jackpot tbd means not known until the event is over. These progressions are twisty turney. No model will nail exact placement of best banding/dynamics.
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Virga streaming in. If you use the cod nexrad site, once the hole over klwx fills in it means onset it imminent for the burbs. Western folks will already be reporting by then. There's going to be hours and hours of virga through late afternoon
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Now we're talkin
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I'm too busy huggin the icon to worry about the gfs
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Icon goes nuts with the weenie ccb band. Lol. Big hit incoming
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I'm always very skeptical of nam qpf output. Temps are usually pretty good but i've seen more than my share of qpf busts. That said, i'm hugging the 12k until it implodes
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I fell asleep before the 0z euro and woke up to a model frenzy. I would have been depressed if i saw the 0z euro. Lol
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3k mostly agrees with its mentally unstable brother
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Damn. Even .75 is a crushing. Good 6z and 12z so far
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Even if you us the standard short range nam reality adjustment it's still .60
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Thanks coastal but i think you meant to say melts on contact. Lol
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Normally i totally ignore the srefs but 21z is hugworthy so I'm in.
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This year is crazy. Almost every southern shortwave has overperformed midrange guidance.
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Read some obs in the midwest thread. Looks like a positive reverse bust in progress in MO and IL. Extrapolate that at your leisure
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Good question... it doesnt matter either way. Obs at this point are only temp, dews, and how cloudy your clouds are.
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Soundings at 18z look pretty good. Before onset the column is saturated down to 925mb. Surface winds are out of the south turning se then e. Def going to be hallucinations but one of the nice things about waa precip like this is moisture in the mids is steady streaming in well before onset. Clippers are the worst with "wasting snow"
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Alright folks. Locked and loaded with few if any worries. Hope the southern folks get more snow than ice. Ground is frozen and ready to get dumped on. Streets in the western zones will cave with the first flakes. *measure honestly. No slant sticks or "eyeballing a foot".
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And to think... there was a heated drought debate last winter.
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Tricky contest this year. Easy to go late because well...it's been warm as F and warm enso is generally a mild fall pattern. Add is the ridiculous amount of saturated ground and everything points to a late start to cold season. However, a very cold Canada pattern looks to potentially lock in this month so intrusions could be pretty cold. Northern plains weenies may have a good October. Lol
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DCA: 11/30 BWI: 11/11 IAD: 11/2 RIC: 11/14 TB: 3.60"
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I feel sorry for the dought
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Absolutely. What makes this July stand out it was it was really wet and still came in about +1-2 around the airports. If it was dry then it could have been much worse. Easy top 5 imho. The 6-7 days of the month averaged well below normal. Mostly because of the summer coastal. EJ is disappointed because of wasted potential.
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Nice stats Rodney! The precip in July is probably the only reason we didn't end up in the top 10 for heat. August is looking unimpressive so far in the heat dept. Would be nice to have a BN month.
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Best Mid-Atlantic winter storm of the last 40 years
Bob Chill replied to PrinceFrederickWx's topic in Mid Atlantic
One thing is for sure, that 7 day period in Feb 10 may not be topped for 100 years or ever. If the poll was "greatest 7 days of winter" there only needs to be 1 choice.
