Yardstickgozinya

In this case I say it's evolution.

The spc has dropped all 5% probabilities for Tuesday, but Wednesday looks potentially historic. The obvious lack of movement answers some of my questions for yesterday, although the orientation and close proximity of the trailing portion of the front keeps severe possibilities alive in my mind. My other question is can we score some Tail end Charlie as the lp moves across Canada ? Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE ON D4/WED... ..DISCUSSION... Medium-range models appear to be in good agreement with overall evolution of the synoptic-scale pattern into the Day 7 (Saturday April 5) time period, when divergence in solutions increases. Earlier in the period however, model consistency lends fairly highbconfidence that a widespread/potentially substantial outbreak of severe weather will evolve Wednesday/Day 4, from Lower Michigan and the Ohio Valley, southwestward across the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valleys, and into eastern portions of Texas and Oklahoma. Convection will likely be ongoing or developing early in the day, over western portions of the risk area -- from Wisconsin southwestward to Oklahoma/North Texas. As an upper low shifts northeastward across the northern Plains toward the upper Mississippi Valley through the day, and the cold front crosses Iowa/Missouri/eastern Oklahoma, steep lapse rates atop a moist/diurnally heating warm sector will support widespread convective development. With ascent along the front somewhat modest as stronger large-scale ascent focuses northward into the western Upper Great Lakes and into Ontario, storm mode may tend toward isolated storms, as opposed to more linear development. This, combined with flow that is forecast to weakly veer but dramatically strengthen with height, suggests a primarily supercell storm mode. In additional to very large hail (particularly with southward extent), widespread damaging winds and several tornadoes are expected, some possibly significant. Risk is expected to continue well into the evening and likely overnight, shifting slowly eastward across the Midwest and mid/lower Mississippi Valley through the end of the period. Day 5/Thursday, trailing portions of the cold front should become aligned east-northeast to west-southwest across the Ohio and mid Mississippi Valleys and into the southern Plains, as the upper system shifts quickly across eastern Canada. While weak short-wave ridging will evolve atop the surface frontal zone in the wake of the departing system, daytime heating of a very moist boundary layer along and south of the front combined with strong flow aloft will support reinvigorated convection through the afternoon and evening hours, along with attendant severe-weather risk.

Monday https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

Sunday https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Lol ,I thought someone might take the bait.

Normally, I wouldn't be so impressed by this, but I have never seen such a small event seem so massive. I coin this setup as meteorological ejectulation. You kids can tell your professors you saw it here first.

Day 5 sounds extremely volatile, but I may be misunderstanding the explanation and evolution of Day 6 from the spc and noaa. Maybe someone with more experience and access could weigh in ? I'm assuming breaking into the warm sector on a system that could potentially cause a severe weather outbreak the day before is usually a good indicator, but maybe that's not always the case ?

The latest forecast discussion has new details on both potential systems. Strong mid level wind/shear profiles also support the potential of severe weather Monday PM. A Slight Risk has been issued for all of Central Pa with the main threat being damaging wind gusts. Cloud cover is likely to hold temps down somewhat Monday, but many EPS members still generate CAPE values in the 200-800J/kg range, which could be sufficient for severe weather given the expected wind fields. Latest ensemble plumes indicate most likely rainfall Monday of around a half inch, which would be beneficial given recent dryness across Eastern Pennsylvania. After the cold frontal passage, a low PWAT airmass and high pressure will begin building into the region, resulting in fair and relatively cool weather Tuesday into early Wednesday. Medium range guidance all tracks another surface low west of PA through the Grt Lks next Thursday. Rain along the attendant warm front could spread into Central PA by Wed PM, with a chance of showers accompanying the trailing cold front Thursday. A cold air damming scenario ahead of the approaching warm front with surface high east of New England supports undercutting NBM maxtemps slightly Wed. However, much milder conditions are likely Thursday, with the region potentially breaking into the warm sector south of the surface low. A trailing cold front is currently progged to stall out just south of PA next Friday. A potential wave on the front could result in lingering rain, especially over Southern PA.

Wow. !!! Although not highlighted, both the spc and noaa forcast discussion mention another possible round of severe weather that could affect central PA. Thursday.

If you're referring to my post I just forgot to address it. Its just a scwobble among two guy know one likes. Apparently we are both somewhat mentaly handicapped . Probably nothing the nerotypical want to get involved with.

No worries. I won't be reading or responding to the tool bag an further.

Lol , @RuinWhat in God's geen earth makes you think I want ,or think it's going to fucking snow in the first place? I posted it because you're literally delusional and possibly the most annoying person to ever post here. It's pretty fucking obvious from my posts and others that most of us have moved on and have been in gardening and severe weather mode for over a month I personally haven't posted about winter in over 5 weeks . I have told you post after post that I agree with you and that I too don't buy into winter storm forcast either, but here you are again lectureing Flatheadsicknes about the insufficiency of the modles. The fact that you think I'm a modle guy just proves how lost you are. There's only one guy in this thread that's still on the snow train and that's his God given right. If it's bothering you that much than I do advise you change, or seek help all jokes aside.

Discussion Day 4-8 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0409 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Valid 311200Z - 051200Z CORRECTED GRAPHIC ...DISCUSSION... Widespread storms and at least some attendant severe risk will be ongoing at the start of the Day 4 period (Monday March 31) -- with the band of convection likely extending along the west slopes of the Appalachians initially. Diurnal destabilization along and east of the mountains remains a question, particularly with northward extent into the Northeast, and thus the northern periphery of the risk area remains in question -- in what will likely be a very low CAPE/high shear environment -- suggestive of damaging gusts being the primary concern over northern portions of the area. Farther south, greater CAPE is expected, particularly from the Carolinas into the central Gulf Coast states. Here, an all-hazards risk is forecast to continue from the Day 3 period into Day 4. Storms/severe risk will shift eastward with time, crossing the East Coast states through the afternoon and evening, before clearing the coast overnight.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html

So much for keeping it well south. To no surprise 5% probs have been creepin north for this system every few updates over the last few days . There is still a lot of uncertainty to be worked out in coming days. Day 5/Monday, models begin to differ more substantially with respect to surface frontal location -- particularly with northern extent. The GFS depicts the front as extending from New England southwestward to the Texas Coast Monday morning, while the ECMWF places it from Lower Michigan to coastal Texas. By late afternoon,the GFS shows the front reaching the New England coastal area and Mid-Atlantic region, focusing the primary severe threat from the Mid-Atlantic area southwestward. Meanwhile, some risk could extend as far north as the Lower Great Lakes region/central Appalachians per the ECMWF's deterministic forecast. At this time, will keep the Day 5 risk area focused from the Mid-Atlantic region to the lower Mississippi Valley, though adjustments/refinements to the area over the next several days will likely be required.

Thers a high probability of a supernova this year and tonight is one of three dates astronomers have targeted. Don't get to excited though. There's not going to be much to see. Hold onto your hats! Is the 'blaze star' T Corona Borealis about to go boom? https://www.space.com/the-universe/stars/hold-onto-your-hats-is-the-blaze-star-t-corona-borealis-about-to-go-boom

Mr. Poopy paints might want to look under his bun.

As soon as I walked outside this morning, I caught the smell of something very familiar but, unfortunately, always elusive. I'm ready for spring, but if old Blizz would end up getting to hand out a few frozen shit burgers, I'm OK with that, too.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... All medium range guidance indicates the upper trough will be replaced by a building ridge along the East Coast late this week, supporting a trend toward warmer weather late week into next weekend. However, there is plenty of uncertainty regarding how far the dying cold front gets. Some guidance indicates this boundary limps into Northern PA Friday, then lifts north of the border for the weekend. In this scenario, mostly sunny skies and 850mb temps of near 10C south of the front could support widespread highs in the 70s. Other guidance indicates the front stalls out south of PA next weekend, resulting in a much cooler and potentially rainy scenario, with an easterly flow off of the Atlantic and potential overrunning ahead of approaching low pressure over the Midwest. The current weekend forecast reflects a middle ground compromise between these solutions in regards to temps and POPs. There is broad model consensus that an upstream surface low will track over or just north of PA Monday, supporting a good chance or rain or rain showers

The spc dropped all 5% probabilities they previously had on Saturday for the west sout central but still have a large area highlighted for sunday. At this point, the spc keeps any severe well south of us on Monday as an SLP potentially passes just north or over Pa. mentioned in Noaa's latest forcast discussion.

Exactly my point. You're counting up a loss/win for a forecast that never existed outside of social media. I don't buy into most of this winter stuff either, but I at least have some grasp on how this all works. Can you tell me who how and with what that 8-14 day forcast you posted was created? I thought you didn't buy into any forecast. You're a very complicated and complex individual.

I didn't realize there was a projected winter storm in the forcast. No mention of this on any forcast I can find. What agency did you here this from ?

Nope On Monday and Tuesday, the mid-level trough is forecast to move into the eastern U.S., as a cold front advances southward to near the Gulf Coast. Although isolated storms could develop in the southern Gulf Coast states, limited large-scale ascent is expected to be problematic concerning an organized severe threat.