Yardstickgozinya

Also from the spc ..Eastern U.S... Seasonally strong upper trough is currently located over IL and should advance into the OH Valley by 18z as stronger 500mb flow develops across western PA/NY. With time, 50+kt flow should translate into the Middle Atlantic, coincident/just ahead of the primary synoptic front. Latest model guidance suggests modest 0-3km lapse rates will develop by mid day as the boundary layer warms ahead of the wind shift, especially from the Carolinas into Upstate NY. In fact, much of the I-95 corridor over the Middle Atlantic will warm quickly through the 80s to near 90F, effectively removing any inhibition. As a result, convection should readily develop within a very moist environment (PWs 1.75-2 inches) characterized by MLCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg. Forecast soundings exhibit deep west-southwesterly flow with 0-6km bulk shear around 30kt. These profiles favor organized line segments and clusters, and severe wind gusts will likely be noted with the most robust activity. Convection should spread off the Middle Atlantic Coast during the evening hours. Full discussion from the spc is in the link below https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

The thinking from the SPC is that the storms will likely fire pre frontal. NWS at the very least, is advertising the potential of the front timing up very well with max daytime heating for cpa. Maybe they aren't buying into the pre-frontal convection at all . You also don't usually hear them say things like "the slight risk remains in place for good reasons," which also shows me that the discrepancies weren't just in my head. Lol .SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... The approach of a long wave trough aloft will put us in the favorable right entrance region of a jet streak moving poleward on Thursday. The cold front associated with this trough will be arriving in Central PA in peak heating/mid-day and shear also increases to 40+KT over most of the area. Expect SHRA and perhaps a TSRA or two to be ongoing in the AM over wrn PA and fire up over the CTP CWA in the late morning and aftn. As the day continues, the CAPEs in the SE get back into the 1500-2000J range in the E. The SPC SLGT risk of severe remains in place for good reasons. Flooding should be much less of a concern Thurs vs Wed with storm motions much quicker despite PWAT values of 1.5-2" (highest E). Still a MRGL risk of excessive rain, though, as repeated cells could make for localized problems. Not enough of a risk nor confidence to post a FF Watch at this point.

I noticed some discrepancies throughout the day with the forecast. The big question seems to be will the storms Initiate along a pre frontal boundary or along the lagging cold front. Watching initiation tomorrow is key. If the storms can get going out head of the cold front instead of the pre-frontal trough we could be looking at something big tomorrow.

I'm not disputing, anything you're saying. I have no doubts that all happened. Just adding my two cents.

Radar estimations give a few spots well over 3" approaching or at 4" NE of Reading.

Beautiful view of distant cumulus nimbus and lightning off to the NW at the moment.

Completely off topic but if your interested in Artificial intelligence and comedy, this is ai comedy gold. Don't miss the fight. https://youtu.be/9HJZYjkNs_s?si=tu5IAGTfGPQ5ZFuB

It appears there might be some flys in the ointment. Waiting to see is spc jumps ship.

I'm probably a little late to the ball game today spc has placed SE pa under a slight risk. ...Mid Atlantic... Visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies and strong heating occurring over northern/central VA, where a hot/humid airmass is present. Thunderstorms are expected to develop off the terrain this afternoon and spread eastward into the DelMarVa region. Sufficient flow aloft and steep low-level lapse rates will promote a risk of strong storms capable wind damage. Isolated strong storms may also affect south-central VA and northern NC later this afternoon as well. Refer to MCD #1344 for further details.

. My subconscious is always looking for an excuse to lay around for a week during my busy season but this is definitely getting a little repetitive and starting a cut into my finances. The good news is the next few days might not disappoint and have Increasing. storm potential to look forward to.

Slight risk probabilities stayed rock steady overnight for Thursday. ...New England into the Mid Atlantic/Southeast... Relatively rich low-level moisture will stream northward ahead of the front approaching New England and the Mid Atlantic during the day on Thursday. Moderate buoyancy may develop as far north asnorthern NY/VT, with pockets of stronger heating/destabilization farther south into the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas/Southeast. The strongest deep-layer flow/shear is still expected from PA/northern NJ northward into New England, where wind profiles will be conditionally supportive of supercells and organized bowing segments. Damaging winds and perhaps a tornado could accompany the strongest storms in this area. Farther south into the southern Mid Atlantic and Carolinas,deep-layer flow will be somewhat unidirectional and weaker, but still sufficient for some organized convection. Clusters capable of producing scattered wind damage will be possible, especially in areas where stronger diurnal heating/destabilization occurs. Deep-layer flow will be rather weak into parts of MS/AL/GA/SC, but the glancing influence of the mid/upper-level trough and relatively large MLCAPE and PW will support storms capable of producing isolated strong/damaging gusts. The full SPC forcast discussion for Thursday is in the link below. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

I completely understand. Mundane to me is a week straight of sunny days, clear blue sky's with just enough breeze to gently play the wind chime as the afternoon doves sing back and forth about their lifelong court ship. That bores the living daylights out of me. Call me strange but I spend those days dreaming of 100-degree weather with muggy nocturnal thunderstorms or digging two feet of snow out of my driveway after mud wrestling the female clown midgets and old Jack three legs from the Ringling Bros. and Barnum & Bailey Circus.

Just Satan !!. You should have left the box closed. RIP Mittens .

The good The Bad And the to be continued.

Ok Strange. Dont get to down on yourself . Your feelings about the weather are justifiable.

Thank you mother nature for the most epic season of Kayaking and Small Mouth fishing.

As Canderson mentioned yesterday there is some timeing differences at play . Either way I think the biggest news will be the flash flooding here in cpa. The local water sheds have done a great job this year absorbing and shedding but I think there number is up atp.

Scattered thunderstorm development will be possible along/ahead of the front from the Carolinas/Mid Atlantic into New England during the afternoon. Wind fields will generally be stronger with northward extent. Depending on the extent of destabilization, supercells and organized clusters will be possible across parts of New England and perhaps the northern Mid Atlantic, which would pose some threat of all severe hazards. Farther south into the southern Mid Atlantic and Carolinas, deep-layer shear will be weaker, but favorable low-level moisture, strong buoyancy, and modest midlevel southwesterlies will support outflow-driven clusters capable of damaging winds and possibly some hail. The organized severe threat will tend to decrease with southwestward extent, due to weaker deep-layer flow. However, favorable low-level moisture and buoyancy could support a few strong to locally severe storms along the trailing cold front into parts of the Southeast during the late afternoon and evening

Sorry if you're already aware of this . I didn't stop by the forum yesterday, but for future reference, I would ask the guys at the MA thread . I have seen guys post forcast soundings from pivotal. The LcL should be already plotted and easily visible.

Schrodinger's cat to Satan's Grundle. You're quite the enlightened bartender.

Day 5 Thursday The mid-level trough is forecast to move into the lower Great Lakes and upper Ohio Valley on Thursday, as the cold front advances into the central Appalachians. As the airmass ahead of the front destabilizes, scattered thunderstorms are expected to form along and ahead of the front. The models suggest that moderate deep-layer shear will be in place across much of the northeastern U.S., which will likely support organized storms. Damaging winds gusts will be the most likely severe threat.

Maybe one of you northern readers will get lucky.

We are monitoring a possible increase in severe storm probs for Thursday afternoon and evening; we spoke with the SPC concerning a categorical upgrade to MRGL (level 1) severe storm risk. The last 2 runs of the HREF indicate moderate destablization overlapping with favorable deep layer shear on the southern periphery of stronger west-northwest flow aloft. Limiting factors at this stage include displacement of best lift (well to the north) and weak convergence along the southward moving cold front - which reduces confidence to some extent. We would anticipate at least a MRGL risk on day 1 if a stronger signal for robust development emerges with time. PWATs continue to trend higher into Friday ~1.5" with a good signal for scattered showers and storms particularly across south central PA into the Susquehanna Valley. Cloud cover and weak low passing by to the southeast could limit instability over most of the area with the synoptic setup favoring some locally heavy/slow moving downpours. Cloudy and foggy conditions expected Friday night with some scattered rain showers hanging around into Saturday morning.