Yardstickgozinya

Always exciting to see how these heat waves will end.

I imagine we'll see a few days of very high cape with unbreakable Inversions in the week ahead.

My guess is s SPC put that In place just incase anything does managed to break the cap in the afternoon.

It was very close on previous outlooks. as mentioned yesterday spc keeps the chances alive but slim untill Monday.

Extreme Heat Warning URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 302 AM EDT Sat Jun 21 2025 PAZ036-056-057-059-063>066-220800- /O.UPG.KCTP.XH.A.0001.250622T1500Z-250626T0000Z/ /O.NEW.KCTP.XH.W.0001.250622T1500Z-250626T0000Z/ Franklin-Perry-Dauphin-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster- Including the cities of Chambersburg, Lebanon, Newport, Gettysburg, Lancaster, Harrisburg, Hershey, York, and Carlisle 302 AM EDT Sat Jun 21 2025 ...EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY... * WHAT...Dangerously hot conditions with heat index values over 105 expected for the Lower Susquehanna Valley. * WHERE...Adams, Cumberland, Dauphin, Franklin, Lancaster, Lebanon, Perry, and York Counties. * WHEN...From 11 AM Sunday to 8 PM EDT Wednesday. * IMPACTS...Heat related illnesses increase significantly during extreme heat and high humidity events. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Heat index values and the associated risk of heat-related impacts will be highest on Monday and Tuesday. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Drink plenty of fluids, stay out of the sun, and stay in an air-conditioned room. Check up on relatives and neighbors, and provide pets with adequate water and shelter from the sun. Extreme Heat can be life-threatening among at-risk populations, such as children, the elderly, and those with pre-existing health conditions. In addition to the daytime heat, overnight low temperatures will also be very warm and oppressively muggy. && $$

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_0100.html

I changed my original reply because after I thought about it I realized that It came off as being very belittling to Mount Joy Snowman . I truly didn't intend it to be . He's seems like a stand up guy. I'm an idiot what can I say.

Even though there's really no storms in the forecast I noticed Spc keeps us in the convective outlook the next three days.

I hope disturbance droppingin out of the nw dies ? Not today please.

Bad day for storms locally but a good day for learning and mulching. Atleast now that I found some of these tools it's much harder for someone to say it's black when it's really white, theoretically of course lol. Not that anyone here would do such a thing.

I thought you said it would be interesting lol. There was definitely a lot of anx among our local forecasters yesterday about exactly where storms would Initiate. I said yesterday my hopes were a little different than my expectations but i'm not afraid to share them both.

Looking a the IR dose put there idea of that in question.

Yes we are supposed to destabilize again.

Does anybody actually read the discussions ???

I forget the name of the place but right below the police station in camp hill there a store that specializes in whole natural baby foods. They have the best raw milk period. The cream line is halfway up the jug if you can get there in time to get the best jugs. You have to sign up to get it and it's Deliver to the store every Wednesday.

Be very careful with raw milk . Healthy cows produce milk much higher in Saturated fats. I only drink raw milk But only a few cups a week now because it almost Single handedly sent my cholesterol through the fkn roof.

Ahead of the cf not on.

That's basically what the hrrr advertised this morning but we're about an hour ahead of schedule The hrrr is definitely showing alot more storm development along the cf an some of them look quite robust.

I have 16 yards of natural mulch Staring at me.. Stay safe out there today.

Hrrr brings pf convection into wcpa around 2:00pm . Although it fires off storms on both fronts and Inbetween It likes the pft as the dominant line of convection. By 4:00pm the leading convection has just crossed the Susquahanna river.

I'm trying out an experimental tool from the spc to do some overlays. Clear blue out ahead of the pre frontal with clearing skies ahead the main front. Apparently there will be enough destabilization storms will initiate on both, but at the end of the day, the closer the storms initiate to the main front the better if you want more robust and mature storms further west and east. So I'm hoping to see a majority of convection break out along the CF and less along the PFT. Hope and expectations are two different things.

Also from the spc ..Eastern U.S... Seasonally strong upper trough is currently located over IL and should advance into the OH Valley by 18z as stronger 500mb flow develops across western PA/NY. With time, 50+kt flow should translate into the Middle Atlantic, coincident/just ahead of the primary synoptic front. Latest model guidance suggests modest 0-3km lapse rates will develop by mid day as the boundary layer warms ahead of the wind shift, especially from the Carolinas into Upstate NY. In fact, much of the I-95 corridor over the Middle Atlantic will warm quickly through the 80s to near 90F, effectively removing any inhibition. As a result, convection should readily develop within a very moist environment (PWs 1.75-2 inches) characterized by MLCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg. Forecast soundings exhibit deep west-southwesterly flow with 0-6km bulk shear around 30kt. These profiles favor organized line segments and clusters, and severe wind gusts will likely be noted with the most robust activity. Convection should spread off the Middle Atlantic Coast during the evening hours. Full discussion from the spc is in the link below https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

The thinking from the SPC is that the storms will likely fire pre frontal. NWS at the very least, is advertising the potential of the front timing up very well with max daytime heating for cpa. Maybe they aren't buying into the pre-frontal convection at all . You also don't usually hear them say things like "the slight risk remains in place for good reasons," which also shows me that the discrepancies weren't just in my head. Lol .SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... The approach of a long wave trough aloft will put us in the favorable right entrance region of a jet streak moving poleward on Thursday. The cold front associated with this trough will be arriving in Central PA in peak heating/mid-day and shear also increases to 40+KT over most of the area. Expect SHRA and perhaps a TSRA or two to be ongoing in the AM over wrn PA and fire up over the CTP CWA in the late morning and aftn. As the day continues, the CAPEs in the SE get back into the 1500-2000J range in the E. The SPC SLGT risk of severe remains in place for good reasons. Flooding should be much less of a concern Thurs vs Wed with storm motions much quicker despite PWAT values of 1.5-2" (highest E). Still a MRGL risk of excessive rain, though, as repeated cells could make for localized problems. Not enough of a risk nor confidence to post a FF Watch at this point.