Winterweatherlover

36 and been all rain the whole storm, just started mixing with snow. 

Just now, jayyy said:

Complete bust coming for my folks area (new city). 3-6” advisory lowered to 2-5” but I doubt they even see 1-2” at this rate. RGEM was spot on.

Lol I was under an advisory for 3-5 inches earlier in the day and I’m 40 degrees and raining. 

I guess I have to accept this one is over. Its a tough one to swallow when the potential was really there. 

3 minutes ago, mannynyc said:

240 hour Canadian bomb? At this point, why not.

Hard to get excited 240 hours out but sure it happens why not. 

6 minutes ago, jayyy said:

But it’s not just the NAM or GFS. Euro also isn’t good for the metro.

It’s about 3-6 inches I think on the last run? 

5 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Short range models do have snow mixing in for a while in N Nassau and much of NYC. In the city I doubt anything sticks but maybe away from the heat island if it can cool to near freezing. I think it’ll be a lot of white rain but it’s good that it’s falling at night. Temp here is still 40 so a ways to go. 

40 here too, long way to go to get toward freezing. 

CMC gives hope?

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=prateptype-imp&rh=2023031100&fh=78&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

NVM low ends up too far east to really allow the dynamics to take over for NYC.   

27 minutes ago, mannynyc said:

The low over NYC screams rain for the Metro

In this case I believe the low just east of LI or over Montauk would be ideal for NYC Metro from how i'm interpreting it. 

1 minute ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

I would not entirely agree that there's no cold air supply. The cold is not extreme and it is marginal but to say there's no cold air supply is wrong. There is a HP system wrapped around the Norlun signature trough and that HP is marginally cold enough. In addition, if the low is as tucked as NAM shows you'll see a period of east southeasterly winds off of the relatively warm ocean causing temperatures to rise into the 40s. If you get that and then dynamic cooling you're not going to cool enough in the NYC Metro to see accumulating snow until it's too late, maybe not even then.

WX/PT

Its a tough call and I would defer to you as a meterologist but how come then it seems the models that are closer to the coast are snowier closer to NYC while the models further east have less snow?   

Latest rgem ticked slightly colder and now has a tiny bit of snow making it to the northern parts of the city, i'll be excited to wake up to my 0.2 of an inch (sarcasm).    

3 minutes ago, wilsonvoid1 said:

that actually makes sense, it would be more dynamic and we'd get the CCB at the end of the storm. So you're telling me there's a chance but when was the last time NAM scored a coup? January 2016?


.

It's been a while. I wouldn't take the hour 84 NAM too seriously. 

21 minutes ago, jdj5211 said:

NAM is super tucked along the NJ shore....rain rain go away....

In this case most of us want it to tuck, theres no cold air supply so we are dependent on the storm and the CCB band smashing the area. The more tucked runs seem to actually be snowier. Too far west obviously would be a problem but right now we need a bit of a west shift on the globals.  

15 minutes ago, Nibor said:

Yeah but you live north of the Tappan Zee which as far as I’m aware is the same latitude as the arctic circle so you getting snow isn’t a big deal. 

Snowman19 would probably disagree with north of Tappan Zee (Rockland county) being the article circle. 

5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Maybe not, climate change has been decreasing snowfall in many parts of the world (like the Alps), so it was bound to happen here sooner or later.

Look, if you really love snow that much, you should live in the mountains.  In the Poconos we had 6 inches of snow from the last storm.

 

Agree but easier said than done, I’ve wanted to leave the NYC area most of my life but circumstances made it difficult. I agree though complaining about lack of snow in a place not favorable to get snow is not worth it. 

13 minutes ago, Metasequoia said:

I thought the GFS and CMC were close to something decent for NYC. If the low bombs out 6 or so hours earlier then maybe the CCB clobbers.

Agree I’m not really sure why it became negative central because of the Ukie. I guess everyone has different ways of forecasting, personally my opinion hasn’t changed much, it will if euro trends bad. 
 

it also depends what peoples expectations are, you’re not getting 2 feet in March in NYC no matter what lol but I think a high end up to about 6-12 inches is still possible. 

Could be a real nice week for the I84 corridor if it doesn’t trend east. 

8 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Nice to see more snow out in the ocean than on the coastal plain (sarcasm).  

5 minutes ago, wilsonvoid1 said:

ukmet is the second best model and it does this. Not sure what to believe but trend isn't our friend, if the euro shows this trend more east i am throwing in the towel for this winter.


.

It really doesn’t seem like the 2nd best model. Idk the statistics but it seems like a lousy model. 

11 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

East and later capture. So a NNE win. About to tap out of this one.

I’ll wait on 12z Euro. If it trends bad I’ll lose interest. 

Ukie way warmer. 

7 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

12z CMC run is a little lower in snow totals vs. the 00z run

 

Makes sense with a further east track. It didn’t shift by too

much though. 

2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Stole from NE forum.

He seems to think it’s coming east. We’ll see. 

Cmc a little too far east for what we need but probavly better to have it a little east than a little west at this range. 

3 minutes ago, romba said:

Greater intensification, but weaker rates

Cmc seems stuck on 90 but the key would be does it track north or northeast from there, 

2 minutes ago, romba said:

CMC east so far

 

 

Yes east but stronger, still inside the BM zone at 90.