Winterweatherlover

Cmc/RGEM are just disasters not only for NYC but well into there HV. Hope they are wrong. 

Cmc looks east. 

5 minutes ago, mannynyc said:

A good start! GFS is west!

Still not enough for NYC to see anything meaningful. 

33 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

The models are still all over the place.  This is nuts lol.. imagine being a met in Boston lol

They really aren’t if you look at the right ones. 
 

the gfs/euro/cmc/RGEM all have basically nothing for NYC. 

13 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Nope, it's fantasy.

I wish it would happen, but it's in all likelihood not going to. I'm not even that optimistic where I live which is 50 miles NNW of Central Park. Hope I'm wrong.

Agree it’s starting to look dicey even up there. But what else would be fitting for this winter than a last second bust. 

RGEM is basically all ran I287 and SE. it even looks dicey now for upper Westchester and Rockland not being mostly rain. 

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Didn't one or more of these models say we had a Miller A coming up from the Gulf around the 17th?  I distinctly remember maps being posted about it.

I was thinking this. I hasn’t paid attention to long range but of course now pushed back to the 23rd. Maybe it’ll be pushed back to April next? 

1 minute ago, lee59 said:

From Upton:

The trend with the track however, has been farther south and
east, meaning a colder solution and therefore more in the way of
snow, even along the coast. Much of the area will see plain
rain for Monday, with perhaps a rain/snow mix across the higher
elevation inland. As the low tracks east of the area, and
strengthens, strong cold air advection will ensue, allowing a
changeover to snow from northwest to southeast late Monday night
into Tuesday morning. This time frame is also a period of when
the heavier precipitation is expected. Heavy snow is expected
across the interior, while there will be heavy rain for the
coast.

By early Tuesday morning, the changeover continues, even towards
coastal areas, but by this point, the heavier precipitation will
have ended. This changeover continues moving south and east.
The snowfall forecast will be quite challenging as accumulating
snowfall is possible, even along the coast.

Daytime light snow on Tue above freezing in March. Not optimistic. 

What happened to the se ridge? Doesn’t seem to be helping push this storm west when really want it to. 

2 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

That’s a joke right. Even a broken clock is right twice a day. He’s calls for no snow all the time even though his name contradicts

This winter hes been basically right everytime for his area and points se of there. 

Thinking maybe it’s time to consider changing the sub forum structure? This is very deflating for those who live near the coast while interior is about to get blasted.

2 minutes ago, mannynyc said:

RGEM goes east. Its track is similar to the NAM but it is significantly warmer.

It’s been warm the whole time. It’s the most reliable model imo. 

38 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Nope

Way east

How can the models be this bad 2 days out ?

You can't trust anything 5 days out anymore

I would suggest not looking at models like the NAM and ICON. The RGEM has been consistent with a non event for NYC. That’s why I’m not that surprised/disappointed. 

46 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Central Park still has a good shot at futility. If this fails which you have to say looks more likely than not at this point it’s an F. I have 7.5” with roughly a 35” seasonal average. Huge F. 

At this point it’s not only possible but more likely than not cpk hits futility record. 

3 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Not exactly true. 

I have no idea yet.

It seemed low unless we got absolute perfection which is rare. 

8 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Where we are will get blitzed by easterly winds before anything hits the ground which will likely be rain since it’s coming from 45 degree waters. 

I hate living here so much so tired of the easterly winds ruining everything, I feel it’s the same story almost every storm. 

2 minutes ago, Rjay said:

It's a really bad run for the southern half of this forum. It lowers the ceiling dramatically.  

The ceiling was always pretty low imo se of 287. Does NYC get anything? 

On the bright side if it’s really gonna be 50s-60s late next week this would have been gone quickly anyway so we aren’t missing much. 

Not trying to be negative but part of why people get disappointed and say the models stink is you trust models and model runs that shouldn’t be trusted too much. The NAM is unfortunately not a reliable at all. 

Just now, wilsonvoid1 said:

But icon has been the worst model ever at least NAM
Has a better name and has scored I'll cook here and there Icon has never scored anything. rgem is a good model but I'm sorry to tell you I'll take Nam and euro over iKON and rgem anytime


.

Taking NAM over RGEM can lead to big disappointment. It’s also not like NAM showed this every run, it’s one run. It’s ok to be excited though but I always take a cautious approach. 

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

New RGEM is waaaaay more subdued for NYC. Not saying things aren't improving but needs to be a lot of caution before going crazy with a big snowstorm now in the city.NAM can easily yank it right back at 18z and we need to see the other globals at 12z to observe any trends.

The RGEM hasn’t really liked this storm the whole time for NYC, I know it is slightly warm biased but it’s part of the reason I’m very cautious with this. 

I was going to ask about gfs and then realized with daylight savings not out until 11:30. 

I’m going with the expect all rain approach and be pleasantly surprised if we get a surprise. 

1 minute ago, Tatamy said:

It’s going to be an interesting few days while we find out who will be dead wrong.

This would be a pretty big fail for the euro if it does bust given how consistent it’s been. 

Just now, snowman19 said:

The Euro is going to be dead wrong IMO. That inverted trough feature is BS

I agree unfortunately. If we are relying on an inverted trough it’s probably going to bust.