Winterweatherlover

34 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Maybe in a way it's a good thing lol?

The 18z euro just woke it back up lol amazing what these models do to us. 

1 minute ago, RU848789 said:

Have seen moderately large discrepancies several times in the past week between snowfall amounts on SV vs those on Pivotal, with SV amouts being much higher and we're seeing it again.  Does anyone know the difference between their snowfall estimation algrithms to know if one or the other is more accurate? 

 

Differences but the pivotal map definitely has the 6+ line further south than the 12z run. 

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Expect rain from this and if it ends up as something more you’ll be happy. If you’re hoping for/expecting a MECS you’re very likely to get disappointed. Maybe not the worst time to check out Hunter Mountain lol. 

I think realistically at least most of us are not expecting a MECS but hoping for a 3-6 inch event on the backend. 

Just now, White Gorilla said:

Definitely deserves a weenie tag as Julian did.  Poughkeepsie and surrounding is NOT getting 27-30.  One can dream though....  I can see the highest Cats getting two feet under this solution. 

 

I think 1-2 feet pretty possible around Poughkeepsie. Most models seem to really like that area this time around. 

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

it's like the different globals are taking their turns keeping our attention lol

I don't think we have any chance of getting 6" of snow, but  3-5 inch event is still pretty good, especially this season.

 

It’s mostly the euro and one gfs run. The cmc has not really shown anything great any run. The Ukie was showing a huge hit a day ago but has consistently backed off two straight runs. 

Just now, LibertyBell said:

halve that and still not bad

I want to let this one go but the euro does good with big storms at least traditionally so it’s reeling me in. 

The 18z gfs shut down the whole forum, never seen one run do that. 

11 minutes ago, NutleyBlizzard said:

Despite what the GFS just showed, I’ll give it to 12Z tomorrow although it would be a fitting end to an absolute atrocious winter with one last knee kick to the nuts. Old man winter owes us big time next year.

My lack of optimism is less about what an 18z gfs showed and more about the fact that no model is really showing a significant snow event for I95 corridor. 

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Man this winter sucked

 

You can't even trust the models 3 days out.

 

Awful

 

 Quote

That’s why I think it’s important to look at the right models. The RGEM has never liked this event for our area. 

18z gfs is a disaster for most of he subforum. Still looks good north of I84. 

Just now, wilsonvoid1 said:

GFS is going to be way east!


.

That’s definitely not what we want. 

Just now, HeadInTheClouds said:

I just got a WSW issued here in Dutchess which is surprising because NWS Albany isn't an office that issues advisories/watches well in advance like other offices. 

This is a really big storm and very good model consensus of a significant snowfall North of I84. 

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

It was a big  shift 

Not really imo. If we start seeing 6+ into the city and snow down to ACY id be more excited. 

2 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

We looking at the same euro run?

Depends on location. It looks like north of I80 it’s a real snowstorm. 

Euro run was good enough to keep me interested but not good enough to make me feel optimistic about this. 

Take this map with a grain of salt.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2023031112&fh=90&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

Wow looks like March 2018 all over again, snow and mix all around the rain in the 5 boroughs

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2023031112&fh=84&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

HV demolished by the CCB band, it's still a little too far north for NYC

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2023031112&fh=78&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

Just now, MJO812 said:

Uh ? It just shifted west

We need the dynamics 

Looks like it shifted east to me but then I guess hooked west or maybe is confused with the double low?   

Not a good run at all

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2023031112&fh=66&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&m=ecmwf_full

Euro slightly north and 1 mb stronger than last run at hour 48. 

Looks further east and 1 mb weaker at hour 60

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

Yeah at this point would ignore the snow maps will drive you crazy. 

Looking at too many model runs will drive you crazy lol. If euro looks like gfs I’d say we have a real shot, if not it’s looking pretty bleak. 

2 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

That model hasn't been that great either. It's usually too warm and too light on precip. 

Yes it’s usually too warm and dry hence why I like to use it to increase confidence if it shows something positive. 

3 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

I was speaking in general terms, not just this storm. I don't trust that model. Actually I don't trust any 1 model. 

It’s not perfect but the RGEM usually isn’t way off and if anytung is usually too warm so it’s a good model to rule in snow chances if it shows somehung good. 

2 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Some people think it's a good model but all I see is flip flopping run to run and questionable thermals. 

Don’t care too much about it’s thermals but the east track is a problem, without heavy banding NYC has no chance.